The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the fifth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
First, a note to our Premium level members (subscribers) we will produce another Premium supplemental issue of our newsletter for you tomorrow afternoon. The newsletter will contain the most recent CPIP (construction put in place) data. We also will release the results of this week’s flat rolled steel market trends analysis in the form of […]
One of the important keys to understanding the strength or weakness of the flat rolled market in the United States is to follow the steel mill lead time announcements made to their customers. We can then compare them against prior weeks (and the results of our market trends report which is conducted twice per month) […]
Two fewer selling days and brutal winter weather may have played a part in softer automotive sales in January. GM and FCA sales were up 9 percent and 7 percent, respectively, but Ford sales slipped 3 percent year over year. Toyota and Honda sales were down year over year as were sales for Nissan and […]
Caterpillar says it plans to close five plants in the U.S. as part of a cost-cutting strategy it began last year. The closures at the mining and construction equipment company will mean layoffs for about 670 employees. In September 2015, Caterpillar said global restructuring actions would cut as many as 18,000 jobs through 2018. “Cost […]
Correction: CME HRC settlement number for January was $389 per ton, not $398 per ton as we mistakenly identified in our monthly analysis table published in our Sunday evening edition. Unlike Platts and our own SMU hot rolled index, the index used by CME had hot rolled prices dropping by $7 per ton during one […]
We will begin our early February flat rolled steel market analysis on Monday. If you receive an invitation to participate please take a few moments to click on the link and respond to our questionnaire. We will produce a few articles on the results of our queries on Thursday for our Executive level members. Our […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the fourth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
Dealers are predicting (positioning?) that ferrous scrap prices will move sideways as we move into the month of February. We have been told Turkey is not buying much scrap as they have scaled back production levels to about 70 percent. The current market is a supply driven market (as opposed to demand from the steel […]
Total housing starts in December were at an annual rate of 1,149,000 which was down from 1,179,000 in November. Since April total monthly starts annualized have ranged from 1,062,000 to 1,211,000 with the high month being June. In December the three month moving average (3MMA) was 1,133,000 which was down from 1,153,000 in November. August […]
As part of our Premium level service, Steel Market Update (SMU) analyzes the service center shipment and inventory data and provides a short term forecast for carbon flat rolled steel shipments and inventories then we use our proprietary model to determine if distributor inventories are in Apparent Excess or a Deficit situation. Our forecast also […]
We are seeing a divergence in the normal spread between hot rolled lead times and those of cold rolled and coated products. Normally, we would see HRC lead times at just a couple of weeks less than that of the other “higher value” products. With the demise of the energy segment of the industry that […]
In December, vehicle sales in the US eased from the blistering pace of the previous 3 months. Sales fell from 18.2 million in each of the months September, October and November to 17.3 million in December. All numbers quoted here are seasonally adjusted annual rates. For the full year of 2015, sales were 17.3 million […]
Construction employment increased in the U.S. in December and for 2015 amid strong demand according to an analysis by the Associated General Contractors of America. The press release from AGC follows: Forty-four states and the District of Columbia added construction jobs in 2015 while construction employment increased in 39 states and D.C. between November and […]
Yesterday (Monday, January 25th) I visited the AHR Expo (ASHRAE for us old timers) in Orlando. I had not attended one of these shows for probably six years or more. This show used to be a mandatory visit for me when I was a salesman peddling galvanized steel. I remember when the Carrier Corporations, York-Borg […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) produces our flat rolled steel market analysis. This is done through the use of an online questionnaire which is accessed by an invitation only link. SMU invites just under 600 companies associated with the flat rolled industry with a major focus on manufacturing companies and steel distributors. Our […]
I will be at the AHR Expo on Monday of this week (January 25th). I will only be there for one day due to other conflicts on my schedule. If you are planning on attending and would like to meet with me, the best way to find me is either through text or a phone […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are beginning to feel more optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful both in the current market environment as well as three to six months out into the future. Those in the industry seem to be bucking the national pessimistic trend we see on television every night […]
The vast majority of the respondents to our latest flat rolled steel market analysis believe that the domestic steel mills will be able to collect “some” of the latest round of price increases which range from $20 to $30 per ton. In our latest assessment of the flat rolled market, we asked whether the domestic […]
Based on the results of our flat rolled steel market analysis, all of the flat rolled lead times are averaging longer lead times than what we measured one year ago. The SMU steel market questionnaire found the average lead time on hot rolled coil (HRC) was 3.91 weeks, up from a 3.63 week average reported […]
As lead times move out (see article above) we traditionally find the mills less willing to negotiate flat rolled steel prices. We asked those taking our mid-January flat rolled steel market survey to provide us information regarding the willingness of the U.S. steel mills to discount or negotiate steel prices. Hot rolled, which has been […]
Housing starts and permit authorizations fell from November to December, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce report, despite unseasonably warm temperatures. The drop surprised economists who expected gains from the mild weather and from the positive report of construction jobs added in December. Housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,149,000, […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the third consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]
As those of you up north look out your windows at a winter wonderland (ice, snow, cold, windy…) I want you to think about our Leadership Summit Conference which will be held in warm, sunny Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. It’s the kind of place you want to bring your family – kids can play on […]
I am pleased to announce that we have been given permission to take our next Steel 101 workshop to Ohio and to tour the Northstar Bluescope steel mill. Northstar Bluescope Steel has an exceptional reputation for both quality and efficiency and we are looking forward to seeing the mill in action. We will have more […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update conducts a review of the flat rolled steel markets and one of the items on our questionnaire is how far out are steel mill spot lead times. We also follow lead times as published by the domestic mills to their customers which we share with our readers from time […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through November 2015. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for November 2015 decreased 17.3 percent […]
SMU will begin our mid-January flat rolled steel market analysis beginning at 8 AM on Monday. If you receive an invitation to participate, please take a few moments to click on the link (button) which will take you to SurveyMonkey.com where our questionnaire is housed. Premium level members, as well as those who participate in […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price MoMo Index for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the second consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil (HRC) price movements against the […]