The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the sixth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to grow in March according to the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The composite headline PMI registered 57.2 compared to 57.7 in February for its seventh consecutive month of growth. Index readings for New Orders and Production were strong at 64.5 and 56.6, respectively, but slowed from February readings […]
For the thirteenth consecutive month, manufacturing across the globe expanded. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted at 53.0 in March, the same as its February 69-month high. First quarter 2017 averaged a reading of 52.9, the best quarter since Q2 2011. As expected with a no-change reading, components of the PMI were little changed […]
Flat rolled steel Price Momentum ended the month of March where it began – indicating higher prices for hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized, Galvalume and now plate prices. The steel and manufacturing industries remain firmly entrenched in the Optimistic camp as the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index hit new highs for the three-month moving average […]
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer only moved up slightly in March after a surge in points in February. The March reading was 57.7, up from 57.4. Increases were reported in new order and production with indexes reaching 4 and 14 month highs, respectively. Order backlogs increased for the third month but were still below the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. During March our view […]
The headline report of GDP growth in Q4 came in at an upwardly revised 2.06 percent which was a decline from 3.53 percent in the third quarter. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and in the third estimate of Q4 was $16.813 trillion. GDP is defined as Consumption (C) plus Investment (I) […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 31, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 824 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 15 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 10 to 662 rigs, gas rigs up 5 to 160 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of February 2017, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in February were 83,490,000 metric tons, a decrease of 9.1 percent from the previous month but an increase of 13.4 percent from […]
The Association of American Railroads finds in a new report that freight railroads are at risk from trade policies that curtail international trade. In an assessment released Tuesday, the AAR said that at least 42 percent of all rail carloads and intermodal units and 35 percent of annual rail revenue are directly associated with international […]
The Precision Metalforming Association released its March Business Conditions Report and found that members continue to be optimistic about future business conditions. A survey of 119 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada revealed that members expect steady orders and strong economic activity in the next three months. Current average daily shipping levels jumped in […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the fifth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
We are getting mixed messages regarding “real” lead times coming out of the domestic steel mills. The information we are sharing below comes from actual mill lead times coming directly from the producing mills to their customers. This is different than the lead time averages collected by Steel Market Update and shared with our readers […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated March 17th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.963 on January 3rd which was the […]
This is only our second ever write up of global scrap trade. In future we will report quarterly because we believe that to understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market we should be aware of where the US stands as a global player. This data is not very current because some nations are slow […]
Manufacturers are optimistic in the Texas and Richmond area, according to Federal Reserve surveys. Factory activity is expanding so far in 2017 and manufacturers continue to expect improvement during the next six months. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Manufacturing in Texas experienced a ninth month of expansion in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The March report was excellent and handily beat expectations by rising to 125.6 from an upwardly revised 116.1 in February. The three month moving average (3MMA) has […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel having been bouncing like the proverbial rubber ball over the past six weeks as they try to make sense of where steel prices are heading over the near term. Steel Market Update (SMU) asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends survey last week where they […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 24, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 809 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 20 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 21 to 652 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 155 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs up […]
Durable goods orders rose in February by 1.7 percent after gaining 2.3 percent the prior month. The increase beat the Bloomberg estimate of a 1.4 percent gain. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders gained 0.4 percent. Aircraft led the increase with a jump of 47.6 percent for civilian aircraft. Core capital goods orders (excludes aircraft […]
Steel Market Update concluded our analysis of the flat rolled steel markets earlier today. One of the proprietary products produced out of our twice monthly analysis is the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which consists of Current and Future Sentiment Indices. Our Current Sentiment Index as a single data point came in at +73. This […]
Flat rolled lead times, which had been stuck in a rut over the past couple of months, have started to move out according to those responding to our flat rolled market trends survey. We are now seeing average lead times on hot rolled close to five weeks (4.81 weeks). We also saw movement in cold […]
The aggressiveness of the flat rolled steel mills was minimal on Galvalume steels this week but other products appear to be open for discussion, according to those taking the SMU flat rolled market trends analysis survey just completed earlier today (Thursday, March 23, 2017). We found 47 percent of our respondents reporting the domestic mills […]
The Architecture Billings Index increased modestly to 50.7 in February pulling out of its dip into negative territory in January. The new projects Inquiry index was 61.5, up from 60.0 the previous month, and the design contract index climbed to 54.7 from 52.1. “The sluggish start to the year in architecture firm billings should give […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the fourth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory last month. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week […]
Steel mill lead times are one of the key indicators of future direction of steel prices. Steel buyers must be aware of the amount of time it takes a supplier to produce and ship a new order. Lead times and balancing inventories go hand in hand. When lead times shrink, buyers can pull back on […]
Over the course of a few weeks, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steels changed their view of the direction of flat rolled steel price direction. In the middle of February only 14 percent of those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey reported prices would move higher with the majority (52 […]
When we conducted our flat rolled market trends analysis during the middle of February we found 20 percent of our respondents had concerns regarding supply during calendar year 2017. The majority of respondents (63 percent) expressed no concerns about supply. As we move forward to last week the majority is still expressing no concerns about […]
Last Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its series of producer price indexes (PPI), for more than 10,000 goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to provide information for […]