The September Chicago Business Barometer indicated that production was at its highest level since January of this year. The Barometer rose 2.7 points to 54.2 on strong gains in production. The production index jumped 7.3 points to 59.8 while new orders remained unchanged from August. Backlogs remained below the neutral point of 50. Supplier deliveries […]
The Fed once again elected not raise rates in their September 21st announcement. On the 22nd Ian Bezek had this to say: “For those who wanted decisive action, the Fed’s latest move failed to please, however, there were three dissenters against the decision – a large number for the Fed – and the vast majority […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the third estimate of the second quarter of 2016 was 1.41 percent which was slightly above the consensus expectation of 1.3 percent and an improvement from the first estimate which was 1.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and in the third estimate of Q2 […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May, its lowest value since July last year, to 101.1 in August, then to 104.1 in September, it’s highest value since […]
Durable goods orders were flat in August after making gains in July. In the latest report by the Department of Commerce, new orders for manufactured durable goods, excluding transportation were down 0.4 percent, and orders excluding defense were down 1.0 percent. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business spending which excludes both military […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the eleventh consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
Last week Steel Market Update invited just under 600 steel executives to participate in our flat rolled market trends survey. As is normal with SMU surveys, we intentionally invite manufacturing companies and service centers to lead the way. Last week 45 percent of the respondents came from manufacturing and 44 percent from the steel distributors. […]
Last month we based our U.S. flat rolled steel service center shipments and inventories on a relatively conservative model. Our belief at that time was both shipments and inventory receipts would be 3 percent below the 3 year average. In actuality shipments were -3.7 percent below year-over-year levels but 7.2 percent below the 3 year […]
Flat rolled lead times continued to slip, according to those responding to last week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends analysis survey. Lead times are very close to where they were at this time last year when benchmark hot rolled was being reported at $660 per ton (September 16, 2015) and then proceeded to […]
Spot steel prices are now negotiable on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume according to those responding to our mid-September 2016 flat rolled steel market trends survey. Hot rolled continues to be (almost) unanimous with 97 percent of our respondents reporting spot prices are being negotiated by their mill suppliers. At the beginning of […]
We received the following comments from a member of the financial investment community regarding the suits just filed by the domestic mills alleging the transformation of hot rolled to cold rolled or coated from China in Vietnam was just a way for China to circumvent U.S. trade duties. The complaint states that the transformation of […]
According to Baker Hughes data from September 23, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 511 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 5 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 2 to 418 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 92 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index dropped 14 points since we last measured Sentiment at the beginning of the month. The 14 point drop took the Current Index to +49, the lowest point for our index since the +44 reported during the first week of January 2016. The 14 point drop is […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the tenth consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index remained below the zero “no growth” level at -2.0 in September for the second consecutive month. Analysts point to weak export orders and sluggish business investment by the manufacturing sector. New orders dropped eight points to -7.5 and shipments plunged 18 points to -9.4. Indexes for unfilled orders and delivery […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The index had an all-time high of 106.70 in November 2014 and trended down until June this year when it experienced a two month turnaround followed by a slight decline in August to 104.402. The three month moving average (3MMA) had positive […]
Manufacturing activity improved in the Philadelphia area in September according to the latest manufacturing Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. General activity and new orders expanded, surprising economists who expected a flat reading for the month. The headline index increased 11 points to 12.8, marking the first time the index has […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the ninth consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
The price of oil and natural gas have much to do with sales of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube, storage facilities as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through July 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region last year and back dated it to Q1 2005. On Tuesday this week the data was updated through Q1 2016. Even though we might consider this to be historically ‘old’ we think it’s worth reporting because it is […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a review of the flat rolled steel market in our quest to better understand market trends which affect steel pricing and purchasing. We invite approximately 550-600 steel people to participate in our questionnaires. Those invited come from the manufacturing segment of the industry (approximately 45 to 50 […]
According to Baker Hughes data from September 9, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 508 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 11 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 7 to 414 rigs, gas rigs up 4 to 92 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
This month as we contemplate the August job creation performance we will lead off with the thoughts of J.G. Collins managing director of the Stuyvesant Square Consultancy. On September 2nd he wrote: The August jobs report released this morning was full of disappointment, with just 151,000 jobs created. Higher wage occupations continued to shed jobs […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been showing signs of a rebound as our Current Index is being released as +63 this week. This is a +2 point improvement from the middle of August and +5 point improvement since the beginning of August. However, SMU prefers to look at our Current and Future Sentiment […]
The following information comes from our flat rolled steel market trends survey which began last Friday and concluded earlier today. Do not confuse our survey results with actual lead time sheets produced by individual steel mill locations. Based on what our respondents shared with SMU, lead times on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume […]
With lead times shrinking on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels it would be normal to collect data suggesting the domestic steel mills are becoming more negotiable on the spot pricing. The following information was gathered through our flat rolled steel market trends analysis over the past six days. We found that the […]
Global manufacturing continued to grow in August although falling from an eight-month high of 51.0 in July to 50.8 in August. Growth was sluggish in developed markets but improved in emerging markets. Of the 28 countries surveyed in the JP Morgan Global PMI, only nine reported worsening conditions in August. Manufacturers in China reported no […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States dropped this week for the eighth consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price […]
During the month of August the SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted from Neutral to Lower indicating our belief that flat rolled steel prices would continue to fall during the next 30 to 60 days. Our hot rolled “average” for the month dropped from $618 measured during the month of July to $591 per ton […]