The Chicago Business Barometer jumped 7.5 points to 56.8 in June for its highest reading since January 2015, according to MNI Indicators. The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI, is a measure of economic activity in the Chicago area based on survey responses of purchasing managers in the region. Although the rebound was welcomed, it […]
Manufacturing Indexes were reported from four Federal Reserve districts in the past two weeks with mixed results. Manufacturing surveys were released from Kansas City, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas. The survey results from Kansas City were the most positive of the four, returning to a positive reading for its composite index for the first time in […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 25th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears, the latest value we have was dated June 24th, the day that the result of the UK’s referendum became known. There was no significant move in the value of the dollar on that day which may have been published before the […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the third estimate of the first quarter of 2016 was 1.08 percent, up from 0.83 percent in the second estimate and from 0.53 percent in the first estimate. The first quarter result was down from 1.38 percent in Q4 last year. Normally there are two revisions of the first […]
Metalforming companies surveyed in June are expecting little change in business conditions during the next three months. The June 2016 Precision Metalforming Association sampled 120 metalforming companies in the U.S. and found most expect economic activity to remain steady. Orders are expected to remain at stable, with 51 percent predicting no change compared to 44 […]
Sources for the following article are the Conference Board and SMU analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May, the lowest value in 19 months, to 98.0 in June which was the highest value in 8 months. Included below is the official […]
The United Kingdom surprised the world by voting for an exit from the European Union on Thursday. Steel Market Update asked John Anton, Principal Economist-Steel at IHS Global Insight to provide us his insights into what this might mean for the global market. GDP growth in the EU27 is expected to lose 0.2 percent in […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods fell 2.2 percent in May to $230.7 billion after a revised gain of 3.3 percent in April, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. A Wall Street Journal survey of economists forecast a 0.4 percent drop while Bloomberg predicted a decline of 0.5 percent. May’s decline was broad-based across almost […]
According to Baker Hughes data from June 24, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 421 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is down 3 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs down 7 to 330 rigs, gas rigs up 4 to 90 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
The Architectural Billings Index recorded its highest score in 2016 at 53.1, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. The ABI rose from 50.6 in April for its fourth consecutive month of increase in design activity. “Business conditions at design firms have hovered around the break-even rate for the better part […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of May 2016, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in May were 86,750,000 metric tons, an increase of 3.4 percent from the previous month and an increase of 22.4 percent from […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 25th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a […]
The reaction to the latest round of price increase announcements out of ArcelorMittal USA and NLMK USA got one of our readers fired up. After reading Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update they penned their thoughts on price increases and imports, especially imports out of the “2nd tier guys”: I just finished reading last […]
Flat rolled steel inventories being held by U.S. steel service centers have moved from an Apparent Excess to a Deficit based on our analysis of the recently released data by the Metal Service Center institute (MSCI). We have been reporting on the reduction of the Apparent Excessive inventories being held at flat rolled steel distributors […]
Steel mill lead times, the amount of time it takes to get steel produced from the time a flat rolled steel order is placed, have apparently peaked and we are beginning to see signs of a slight pull back in all but coated products. Having said that, lead times still continue to be highly extended […]
The domestic steel mills are barely breaking a sweat as they have minimal need to negotiate flat rolled steel prices according to those taking our mid-June flat rolled steel market trends survey. Last week we invited hundreds of companies associated with the steel industry to provide their opinions on the flat rolled steel market. Over […]
The price of oil and natural gas have much to do with sales of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube, storage facilities as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural […]
Earlier this week Steel Market Update began canvassing the flat rolled steel community to determine how buyers and sellers felt about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment. The result is the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which has been on a roll for a number of months setting new record […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 24th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a […]
Here are some of the comments made to SMU over the past few days both in New York City and upon our return to our offices. Regarding scrap prices, one of our sources was telling us that the domestic steel mills are making a mistake by attempting to push ferrous scrap prices lower, especially when […]
On Wednesday this week the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its series of Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for more than 10,000 goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release this week reported results through May. We run this analysis every three or four months […]
Manufacturing in New York regained momentum in June. The Empire State Manufacturing Index surged 15 points to 6.01, a rebound from May’s reading of negative 9.02. The jump to positive numbers surprised economists who were expecting a reading near negative 5.0. The new orders index shot to 10.90 from -5.54 and shipments pulled out of […]
Over the past week Steel Market Update has been of the opinion that flat rolled steel prices may be reaching levels where a “pause” may be appropriate. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing toward Higher flat rolled steel prices since December 11, 2015 (6 months). Many of the reasons which caused Steel Market […]
Once a year, Steel Market Update goes to New York City to rub shoulders and swap tales with about 400 of our closest steel friends. The initial attraction is the Steel Success Strategies conference hosted by World Steel Dynamics. Over the years a number of events have been formed by steel publications, futures markets and […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region last year and back dated it to Q1 2005. On Tuesday this week the data was updated through Q4 2015. Even though we might consider this to be historically “old” we think it’s worth reporting because it is […]
SMU received a couple of inquiries about sheet shipments and one of our Premium customers had a specific question about the data presented in one of our Premium supplemental issues last week. We thought that we should share the data and then present at the end the question and our response for all of our […]
According to Baker Hughes data from June 10, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 414 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 6 rigs compared to last week. Compared to this time last year, the 414 count is down 445 rigs. The is the second week in […]
There are two headlines when reviewing our MoMo Index this week. The first is our Index has been in positive territory for 23 consecutive weeks. The second is showing the relationship in the current price movement compared against the 12 week moving average is in decline. That steep rise we saw earlier is pulling back […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through April 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]