The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the twelfth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been struggling to get a clear view of the current market situation as we attempt to identify which direction we see flat rolled steel prices going from here. We have been receiving mixed messages over the past two weeks and we have been advising our readers to remain vigilant and […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are feeling good about the industry based on the results of the just completed flat rolled steel market trends analysis released by Steel Market Update (SMU). The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index set another record high beating the high mark achieved just two weeks ago (an explanation of […]
Flat rolled lead times at the domestic steel mills were essentially flat to slightly shorter based on the respondents to the Steel Market Update (SMU) flat rolled market trends survey completed earlier today. Steel buyers are quick to react to shorter lead times by requesting spot price reductions in their negotiations with the steel mill […]
Average flat rolled lead times (the amount of time it takes a steel mill to produce a new order placed today) have begun to shrink which is causing steel mills to be more receptive to negotiating flat rolled spot steel prices based on those responding to this week’s flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey. […]
The ISM Report on Business indicates expansion of economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector and a 92nd month of growth for the overall economy. The Institute for Supply Management report showed the January manufacturing PMI at 56 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from December. Almost all of the components of the PMI […]
The JP Morgan Global PMI remained steady at 52.7 in January. Global manufacturing production increased for the fifty-first consecutive month according to data collected IHS Markit. Faster expansion was noted in the US, Eurozone and UK. Manufacturing expansion slowed in Japan in January and contraction was registered in South Korea, Brazil, Turkey and Greece. At […]
The Precision Metalforming Association reports members are expecting strong business conditions through the first quarter of 2017. The Business Conditions Report for January sampled 115 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada. The report showed 48 percent of participants expect business activity to improve in the next three months, compared to 43 percent in December’s […]
Today is the last day in the month of January 2017. The following is our monthly review of key data collected by Steel Market Update during the month including a number of our own proprietary indices and indicators. SMU Price Momentum is ending the month pointing toward higher prices ahead. We do admit that there […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The January report indicated a small decline from December but the three month moving average (3MMA) was the strongest since August 2001. Consumer confidence is the driver […]
The Chicago Business Barometer lost 3.6 points in January, registering 50.3 from a revised 53.9 in December. The Barometer was at its lowest level since May 2016, after a strong fourth quarter averaging 54.3, said MNI Indicators. New orders fell by 7.8 points dipping into contraction and dragging down the composite index. Production fell 2.3 […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated January 20th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.9627 on January 3rd which was the […]
The headline report of GDP growth in Q4 came in at 1.88 percent a decline from 3.53 percent in the third quarter. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and in the first estimate of Q4 was $16.805 trillion. The growth calculation is misleading because it takes the quarter over quarter change and […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds, then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last sixteen quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 10,239,000 and the states reported 10,103,000 a difference of only 0.13 percent. Part of this small […]
Durable goods orders had an unexpected drop in December, falling 0.4 percent from November. Economists at Wall Street Journal had anticipated a 2.3 percent increase in overall orders. Defense related goods drove most of the decline with a 64 percent decrease in orders for defense aircraft. Orders minus transportation increased 0.5 percent. Core goods, nondefense […]
According to Baker Hughes data from January 27, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 712 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 18 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 15 to 566 rigs, gas rigs up 3 to 145 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the eleventh consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price […]
Manufacturers in the Fifth and Tenth Districts were optimistic about future manufacturing growth during the next six months. The Tenth District, under the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, was especially optimistic on future growth. Richmond Fed The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported manufacturing activity strengthened in the Fifth District during January. The composite […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing to Higher flat rolled steel prices since late October (12 weeks). Based on our analysis of last week’s steel market trends survey as well as direct contact with buyers today, SMU Price Momentum has not changed and our expectation is for prices to move higher over the next […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) ended 2016 at a score of 55.9, up from 50.6 in November and growing for the third consecutive month, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. The new projects inquiry index stood at 57.2 in December from 59.5 the previous month. The differing growth pace between […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. Figure 1 shows historical […]
Manufacturing activity continued to improve in the Philadelphia area during January and is expected to continue to do so for the next six months, according to the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index for current manufacturing index rose from 19.7 in December to 23.6 in January for […]
The steel industry does not seem to be concerned about the transition of power as Donald Trump becomes the 45th President of the United States. There have been a number of cabinet appointees who have testified about the domestic steel industry and the need to “level the playing field” by taking governments, such as China, […]
Wilbur Ross, Trump nominee for Commerce Secretary, talked tariffs on China during Wednesday’s confirmation hearings. The billionaire investor, who was instrumental in turning around ailing steel mills such as LTV Steel in 2002, appears to be a solid supporter of President-elect Trump’s strong-arm approach to trade. “One of the things that we do need very […]
Steel mill lead times, the amount of time it takes for steel mills to produce new orders of hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized or Galvalume products, continue to remain extended according to the results of Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market trends analysis conducted during the course of this week. Hot rolled lead times […]
Flat rolled steel buyers reported the domestic steel mills as not willing to negotiate prices on flat rolled steel products. This is a continuation of the position we reported beginning in November after the initial flat rolled steel price increase announcements being made in late October. Only 17 percent of the respondents to our flat […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the tenth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price […]
The January Empire State Manufacturing Survey in January declined -1.1 from December to 6.5. The general business index reading was positive for the third consecutive month indicating that business activity continues to expand in New York State. New orders and shipments remained positive but fell by 7.3 and 1.3 points, respectively. Unfilled orders posted a […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the ninth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics employment reports, both national and regional, are fundamental to our understanding of where the various steel consuming sectors are headed. In this analysis we are examining multiple data sources to try to develop a broad base of understanding. This data complements other more specific information on construction and manufacturing activities […]