The February Chicago Business Barometer reached its highest reading since January 2016. The Barometer rose 7.1 points to 57.4 buoyed by optimism and gains in new orders and production. Four of the five components of the Barometer increased in February. New orders rose 10.1 points after slipping below the 50 neutral mark in January. Production […]
The World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement went into effect on February 22, 2017. The agreement seeks to reduce the “red tape” for traders involved in moving goods across borders. The agreement, as summarized by the WTO, includes “improvements to the availability and publication of information about cross-border procedures and practices, improved appeal rights for […]
Durable goods orders grew 1.8 percent in January, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The increase was due mostly to a jump in orders for commercial and military aircraft, up 70 percent and 60 percent, respectively. Core capital goods (non-military goods excluding aircraft) fell 0.4 percent after a larger than expected gain of […]
The following article was written by Mario Briccetti, one of our Steel 101 workshop instructors and the director of the consulting firm: Briccetti & Associates. Mario has written other articles about the costs associated with coating galvanized and Galvalume steels. Those articles can be found in our website in the “Steel Buyers Basics” section of […]
The number of oil and natural gas rigs is moving higher and this is good news for the North American steel industry. According to Baker Hughes data from February 24, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 754 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 3 rigs compared […]
This report summarized seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the US. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the same direction but our intention in summarizing them […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated February 17th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.963 on January 3rd which was the […]
Market segments tend to run in cycles and rarely are all segments clicking at the same time. A good example is during the Great Recession, which crushed most steel consuming market segments, we learned through Priefert Manufacturing that farm, ranch and rodeo equipment were quite strong. As the economy improved cycles shifted and over the […]
The Architecture Billings Index slipped into negative territory in January with a score of 49.5, down from 55.6 in December. A score above 50 indicates an increase in billings. The new projects inquiry rose to 60.0 from 57.6. “This small decrease in activity, taking into consideration strong readings in project inquiries and new design contracts, […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States turned negative this week, following a long 14 week positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as a percentage. A positive […]
Tenth District manufacturing expanded in February achieving its highest index reading since June 2011, said the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The month over month composite manufacturing index was at 14 in February after registering 9 in January and December. New orders, order backlog and employment indexes were higher in February, while production and […]
Late last week the MSCI released their service center shipment and inventories data. Steel Market Update (SMU) provides detailed articles to both our Executive and Premium members about the MSCI data. One of the special articles we do for Premium only customers is our Service Center Flat Rolled Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model. This is a […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through December 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Steel mill lead times, the time it takes for a new order to be produced by the domestic flat rolled steel mills, remain essentially unchanged from what Steel Market Update reported at the beginning of February. The lead times being reported are compiled by Steel Market Update as part of our flat rolled steel market […]
The respondents to our latest SMU Flat Rolled Steel Market Trends Analysis are reporting steel mills as actively negotiating prices on all flat rolled with the possible exception of Galvalume. Seventy-nine percent of the respondents reported steel mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled spot pricing. We need to go back to our mid-October 2016 […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) watches the flat rolled steel service centers very closely for signs of strength or weakness. These signs come in the form of discounting spot prices to their customers (or to each other). As markets weaken and the steel mills become more aggressive in their negotiations with the distributors, the service centers […]
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, recently released its Economic and Steel Market Outlook report for 2017-2018. The Association is expecting steel demand to continue its recovery in 2017 and 2018 but is concerned about the rise of unfairly traded imports. Apparent steel consumption stabilized in the second half of 2016 after rising 3 percent year […]
According to Baker Hughes data from February 17, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 751 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 10 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 6 to 597 rigs, gas rigs up 4 to 153 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to fly high and are optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful both in the existing market environment (Current Sentiment) as well as looking out three to six months into the future (Future Sentiment). Both Current Sentiment and Future Sentiment set record highs based on the […]
Manufacturers in New York State are experiencing steady growth, according to the February 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline index for general business conditions rose 12 points to its highest level in more than two years at a reading of 18.7. Indexes for new orders and shipments saw robust gains in February, rising to […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the 14th consecutive week, following a long 17 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January employment data on Friday and introduced five years of revisions. In January the preliminary result for net job creation was 227,000. November was revised down by 40,000 and December revised up by 1,000. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result for January was 183,000 up […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make welded tubular goods as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. Figure 1 shows historical […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the twelfth consecutive week, following a long 17 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
WASHINGTON, D.C., Feb. 6, 2017 – The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) Board of Directors has approved a public policy agenda outlining the Institute’s aggressive pro-manufacturing policy strategies to guide advocacy for the upcoming year and highlight importance of the steel industry to the success of the American economy. “The impact public policies have […]
The following article was originally published by Daniel Pearson, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute on January 18, 2017. Mr. Pearson will be one of our speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference: Wilbur Ross has accomplished impressive business turnarounds during his career. His efforts in the steel, textile and automotive parts industries demonstrate […]
Last week Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted our early February flat rolled steel market trends analysis which is just a long way of saying our survey. Our analysis began on Monday and ended on Thursday afternoon. We covered a large number of topics with manufacturing companies, service centers, steel trading companies, steel mills and suppliers […]
According to Baker Hughes data from February 3, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 729 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 17 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 17 to 583 rigs, gas rigs unchanged at 145 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. Looking back from the […]
Service center flat rolled steel inventories grew in December based on our Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model. November shipments totaled 2,011,000 tons, inventories of flat rolled were 4,446,000 tons (MSCI numbers) and the Apparent Excess as of the end of November 2016 was 1,000 tons. Service centers were, according to the SMU model, in […]