According to Baker Hughes data from May 6, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 415 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 5 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 4 to 328 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 86 rigs, and […]
SMU canvasses buyers and sellers of steel to see how they feel about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing (Current) market conditions as well as what they perceive those conditions will be three to six months into the future (Future). All of our participants are involved in the flat rolled steel […]
Domestic mill lead times: the amount of time it takes to receive flat rolled steel on an order placed this week, continue to be extended and are averaging at least one week longer than one year ago according to those participating in this week’s SMU flat rolled market trends analysis. Earlier this week we began […]
Steel Market Update asks our flat rolled steel market trends analysis participants to comment on the status of negotiations between their company and their steel mill suppliers. We want to know how stringent are the mills being when it comes to collecting the announced or original quoted steel price and are they able to collect […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 18th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
The April 2016 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business reported the April PMI registered at 50.8 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percent from March. The PMI reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activity on a national basis expanded for the second month in a row after five consecutive months of contraction. The growth in manufacturing was […]
Global manufacturing growth ground to a near-standstill in April, according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The composite index was at 50.1 for April and was the second weakest reading in 40 months. A reading of 50 signals no change. Production output and new orders were muted in most markets and international trade volumes […]
If we could sum up the month of April in one word it would be, wow! We saw flat rolled steel prices jump by $90 per ton from the last week of March until the last week of April. Our HRC average for the month of April jumped by $87 per ton, while the CME […]
The Chicago Business Barometer, or Chicago PMI, dropped 3.2 points to 50.4 in April indicating a slow start to the second quarter. New orders and order backlogs both fell sharply during the month. Inventories, which have been relatively stable in the past few months, increased to their highest point since October 2015 but were still […]
According to Baker Hughes data from April 29, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 420 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is a decrease of 11 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 11 to 332 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 87 rigs, and […]
Last week Steel Market Update reported our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index as being at record highs. Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are very optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful not only in the current market but three to six months out into the future as well. When looking at Sentiment from […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 17th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ peaked on January 20th at 126.2, and on April 15th (latest figure available) was rated at 119.7, a decline of 5.2 percent. This is the lowest value since November 3rd 2015 (Figure 1). On March 15th the Fed held rates constant and cut its projection for the […]
Two Federal Reserve manufacturing indexes came out this week: the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey and the Richmond Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing. Both surveys show manufacturing continuing to expand in April. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Manufacturers in Texas saw production output pick up slightly in April. The new orders index rebounded into positive territory at […]
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the March ABI score was 51.9, up from 50.3 February and indicating an increase in design services. The new projects inquiry index was 58.1, down from a reading of 59.5 the previous month. “The first quarter was somewhat disappointing in terms of the growth of design activity, but […]
Durable Goods orders increased 0.8 percent to $230.7 billion in March, according to the Commerce Department. March’s increase is the second one in the past three months and follows a 3.1 percent decrease in February and a 4.3 increase in January. The increase fell below economist consensus of 1.7- 1.9 percent. A surge in military […]
According to our latest flat rolled steel market survey which was conducted last week, steel mill lead times have continued to move out on every single one of the flat rolled products. The extended mill lead times are one of the primary reasons behind the increases in flat rolled steel prices, pressure on deliveries, allocations […]
The graphic used in this article visually tells the story. Flat rolled steel prices have become much less negotiable according to those taking our flat rolled steel market trends survey this past week. Lead times are extended and steel mills are using the words “allocation” and “controlled order entry” to their advantage. The net result […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to feel very good about their company’s prospects both in the existing market as well as looking out three to six months into the future. Steel Market Update (SMU) is of the opinion buyer optimism is connected to rising steel prices around the world which improves the […]
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), a gauge of economic activity and inflation, decreased to-0.44 in March from -0.38 in February. The three month moving average for the index also moved downwards to -0.18 from the revised February reading of -0.11 indicates national economic growth was below trend and suggest subdued inflationary pressure in […]
Steel producing nations meeting in Brussels on Monday failed to agree on measures to confront the world’s excess steel capacity problem. The meeting, organized by the OECD, brought together ministers and trade officials from 30 countries who only could agree that overcapacity needs to be dealt with swiftly and in a structured manner. China took […]
Every month Steel Market Update plugs in the MSCI shipment and inventory data for flat rolled steel and we run it through our model to determine if service centers are carrying too much inventory and by how much. We then forecast where we believe shipments and inventories will go over the next few months. From […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds, then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last thirteen quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 8,948,000 and the states reported 8,610,400. There is a difference in these reports that shrinks the […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. This month the historical data has been revised and we have updated our files back to January 2000. The index had an all-time high of 106.40 in January 2015 but on a month over month basis has declined for 13 of the […]
During the Steel Caucus hearings last week USW International President Leo Gerard articulated the plight of more than 13,500 U.S. steelworkers that are currently holding layoff notices and the need for immediate action to address the flood of foreign steel imports and global overcapacity. “The current steel crisis is primarily caused by unfair foreign trade […]
China has agreed to eliminate some export subsidies on products exported to the United States, said U.S. officials this week. The subsidized products gave advantages to small firms in seven industries, including textiles and seafood, and were in violation of World Trade Organization rules. It is estimated that government subsidies for the program totaled about […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey reached its highest level in more than a year in April. The headline general business index rose 9 points to 9.6, continuing a second positive month with respondents reporting business conditions have improved. New orders picked up two points to register 11.1 after making strong gains in March. Shipments continued […]
We have include an abridged statement from the IMF that was released on Tuesday this week and in which the commodity situation continues to loom large. Our SMU data analysis follows with comments about the future of global and domestic steel demand through 2021. We believe that an understanding of global influences is essential if […]
The surge in steel imports is a threat to national security according to a new paper released by the Alliance for American Manufacturing. AAM says steel is essential to national security, as it equips the military and builds infrastructure. The report’s findings were commented on at the Congressional Steel Caucus this week. “Steel from Northwest […]
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said she will crack down on Chinese steel dumping if elected president. Clinton vowed to triple the number of trade enforcement officials, pursue countervailing duties on subsidized imports, confront currency manipulation and appoint a new trade prosecutor that reports directly to the president. Chinese steelmaking overcapacity continues to be a […]