If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and in particular debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel who participated in our latest review of the steel industry continued to be optimistic regarding their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment. The latest Steel Market Update (SMU) Steel Buyers Sentiment Index was measured at +40 during the first full week of November. The […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) concluded our early November research on the flat rolled steel market earlier today. One of the areas we queried was if those responding to our questionnaire believe that the domestic mills will raise flat rolled steel prices within the first two weeks of November. With 72 percent of the respondents responding […]
According to our latest steel market survey results, lead times have begun to move out on all of the flat rolled products scrutinized by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times extended from 4.07 weeks to 4.36 weeks, cold rolled moved from 6.10 weeks to 6.38 weeks, galvanized moved from 6.26 weeks to 6.39 weeks […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. remained positive this week for the 4th week in a row after 4 consecutive weeks of being in negative territory. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is based upon the current hot rolled coil price weighed against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
This morning’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised on the upside with a growth of 0.7 percent from Q2 and 2.82 percent annualized. GDP in Q3 2013 was 1.65 percent higher than in Q3 2012. This data is the first estimate for the third quarter; revisions have often been substantial recently. The following […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of 73 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The survey preamble was as follows. “The October 2013 […]
Global manufacturing picked up in October with production, new orders and international trade volumes all improving. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 in October from 51.8 in September. Expansion was seen all regions of the PMI composite except France, India and Greece which were still in the negative growth range below a […]
ISM steel buyers reported shipping levels are higher than three months ago and about the same or higher compared to 12 months ago. Inventory decreased slightly in October with most (46.2 percent) saying they have tons on hand to cover 0-1 months; 38.5 percent said they have enough for 1-2 months. Tons on hand are […]
On Thursday, October 31st Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been bouncing […]
Review of Manufacturing. October 31st 2013 Each month the Steel Market Update publishes a table of what we believe to be the most significant indicators of the state of the steel market and current results in the long and flat rolled sectors. We will be discussing one section of this table in detail each month, […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index indicated steady business conditions for New York manufacturers in October. The general business index fell 5 points to 1.5 but remained in growth status. The new orders index rose 5 points while shipping fell 3 points, suggesting modest increases for both indexes for the month. The prices paid index remained […]
The flow of higher pricing slowed this past week as a number of indices – including Platts – did not move their flat rolled steel price assessments compared to the previous week. The range between high and low on benchmark hot rolled coils shrunk to $6 per ton with Steel Market Update being in the […]
The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised economists with a PMI reading of 56.4 in October—the highest level in 2013. Expectations were for the index to fall to 55 this month but instead the PMI increased 0.2 percentage points from September’s reading of 56.2. The indexes for new orders, production, inventories and employment all indicated growth. Of […]
Last evening (Thursday, October 31st) Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on October 31st and thirteen were negative; […]
Last evening (Thursday, October 31st) Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. We now believe domestic flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We have already begun reporting prices as rising over the past three weeks. Prices on benchmark hot rolled coil had been […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. remained positive this week for the 3rd week in a row after 4 consecutive weeks of being in negative territory. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is based upon the current hot rolled coil price weighed against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
It has now been three consecutive months that the SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been at Neutral. Flat rolled steel prices have broken out of the $640 per ton doldrums with benchmark hot rolled coil haven risen to $665 as of earlier this week. The monthly average for benchmark hot rolled is $651 per ton […]
The Chicago Business Barometer surged 10.2 points to 65.9 in October—it’s highest reading since March 2011 and its biggest monthly gain in 30 years. Double digit growth was seen in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs. The October government shutdown seemed to have little effect on Chicago area businesses. New orders shot up to their […]
Consumer Confidence is a Strong Leading Indicator of Future Steel Demand As expected because of the shenanigans in Washington, consumer confidence declined strongly in October, particularly as regards consumer’s future expectations. The Conference Board composite measure of consumer confidence decreased to 71.2 from 80.2 in September. The three month moving average, (3MMA) fell from 81.0 […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September came in slightly above trend at $233.411 billion, (Fig 1). This monthly data is very spiky mainly due to erratic orders for civil aircraft. However it is one of the earliest indicators for US manufactured goods and though we are not involved in aviation the overall trend […]
Net job creation in September was 148,000 of which 122,000 was service providing and 22,000 goods producing. Of the service providing 22,000 was in government. Of the goods producing, 2,000 were in manufacturing and 20,000 in construction (Table 1). Expectations had been for a gain of 180,000. Digging into the September numbers reveals weak growth […]
The Steel Market Update Price MoMo Index for flat rolled steel in the U.S. remained positive this week for the 2nd week in a row after 4 consecutive weeks of being in negative territory. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is based upon the current hot rolled coil price weighed against the previous 12-week average spot price […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) increased yet again for September, reaching its second highest level in 2013, just behind February. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects reported on Wednesday that the […]
On August 23rd Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Since that time benchmark hot rolled prices have been within $5 per ton (+/-) of $640 per ton until this past week when prices rose by $15 per ton. Essentially, we began capturing transactions and offers related to the price […]
A decline in business activity is forecast for the next three months by metalforming companies participating in the October Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Survey participants also expect incoming orders to decline over the next three months. The forecast was similar to September’s predictions but PMA President William E. Gaskin indicated the pessimism […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning, Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United States […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
In our recent steel market survey which we conducted this past week, 56.4 percent of those responding to our questions (all respondents) told us the current contract negotiations on their 2014 flat rolled steel needs represented a “game changer” for the U.S. steel industry. Manufacturers We asked manufacturing companies if their contract negotiations included reduction […]