Category: Mexico

The February scrap market has settled higher on all grades SMU covers.

The new version of Section 232 goes into effect on 12:01 am ET on March 12, according to the executive order. The latest iteration of Section 232 removed quotas, exemptions, and other carve outs that had accumulated over years.

December 2024 marks the fourth month in a row that steel exports have declined, now at the lowest monthly rate recorded since December 2022.

President Donald Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported to the US, according to Bloomberg. Trump said he would make an announcement about the matter on Monday. It was not clear when the tariffs might take effect.

An exciting first look at the results from SMU's first scrap survey.

Following the one-year low recorded in November, steel imports rose by 3% in December to 2.14 million short tons (st) according to final US Commerce Department data. January could be the highest month for steel imports witnessed in nearly three years.

The day-to-day bustle of these announcements should not obscure what they signal for other potential tariff measures in the near term and a revamped trade and economic policy in the long term. 

If 2021 and 2022 was the party, 2024 is the morning after, one panelist said.

"Personally, I find it very hard to believe that we would be in a trade war with Mexico and Canada for more than a few months at any given time. I don't know how Mexico and Canada could survive that. That's a recession for them. That's a few points off GDP for us - my opinion.”

Facing weak demand and an “unsustainably low” pricing environment, GrafTech International posted another quarterly loss to close out 2024.

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

AM/NS Calvert has begun commissioning its new electric-arc furnace, with plans to reach its full annual run rate of 1.65 million short tons a year from now.

Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices moved up again in the US this week, while tags abroad were largely flat. The result: the margin US hot band holds over imports on a landed basis widened further.

The reprieve for Canadian and Mexican tariffs this week has left some uncertainty for the February scrap market, with some sources pointing towards a $20-per-gross-ton (gt) increase.

While Canada and Mexico bent the knee to push tariff implementation out another month, the US on Tuesday instituted an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference. He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped […]

The Commerce Department on Tuesday issued preliminary subsidy rates in the corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) trade case. The agency set minimal countervailing duty (CVD) rates for Brazil and Mexico, mostly high rates for Vietnam, and low rates for Canada, except for one privately held distributor. Commerce assigned that company, Nova Steel, and a handful of Vietnamese […]

Steel and aluminum have been identified as high priorities for trade

Canada fights back, a little As this article was about to be posted, Canada had not backed down to US President Trump’s 25% tariffs coming for Canadian goods at the stroke of midnight. In fact, the Government of Canada had pushed back, saying it would implement 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of US products […]

“It is not by imposing tariffs that problems are resolved, but by talking and dialoguing,” President Claudia Sheinbaum said.

Muted demand from the auto industry took a particular toll later in the year.

The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

The benefits from higher tariffs are speculative and unproven. The disruptions caused by tariffs and other trade restrictions are better documented and cannot be rationally denied. For the tariffs to be good policy, the Trump argument must therefore be sure that the benefits to the US exceed the cost of these disruptions. Otherwise, we have madness masquerading as policy.

The Trump administration will implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, according to a White House fact sheet and executive orders circulated on Saturday. The administration said that it would tariff “energy resources” from Canada at a lower rate – 10%. The tariffs will go into effect at 12:01 ET on Tuesday, according to an executive order. The White House documents made no mention of exemptions.

The scrap and metallics market has reacted to the tariffs potentially being implemented on our neighbors to the north and south. These could have a serious impact on the market, especially on Canada, unless these products are exempted.

On Jan. 18, Teck Resources announced that it expects its Trail smelter in Canada to produce 190,000 to 230,000 metric tons (mt) in 2025, down 10-25% from its 256,000 mt output in 2024. The company announced that the lower output was to maximize profitability and value amid the current tightness in zinc concentrate availability relative […]

North American auto assemblies dropped in December, a sharp 22.6% fall below November, reaching the lowest mark in over three years. Assemblies were also down 5.7% year on year (y/y), according to LMC Automotive data. December’s assemblies reached the lowest total since July 2021. Sentiment remains tempered as carmakers continue to downgrade and adjust vehicle […]

Hitting Canada with a 25% tariff could allow imported goods from other origins at proposed 10%-20% tariffs.

US light-vehicle (LV) sales jumped to an unadjusted 1.49 million units in December, a rise of 9.6% from November and 2% from a year ago, according to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. On an annualized basis, LV sales were 16.8 million units in December, up from 15.6 million units the month prior […]

From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.