Economy

Tampa Steel Conference: Trade attorney says brace for turbulence
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
February 4, 2025
With President Trump’s tariffs threatened, enacted, then paused, and now looming once again, one prominent trade attorney summed up the near future like this: “We have to be ready for chaos at any time over these next four years.”
Monday recap
Timothy Brightbill, partner and co-chair of international trade practice at Wiley Rein LLP, spoke at Steel Market Update’s Tampa Steel Conference Monday afternoon to discuss what the changing trade and tariff landscape means for the steel market.
During a very turbulent Monday, Mexico and Canada both reached agreements with the United States to stave off a 25% blanket tariff on goods for 30 days after they said they would address border issues. Both countries had said they would retaliate with their own tariffs on US goods.
Now, attention turns to China, where an additional 10% levy looms over goods. Beijing, in turn, slapped tariffs on US products.
The threat of tariffs sent US stocks into a nosedive Monday morning. Though Wall Street pared back its losses after the announcements, it was clear the market didn’t react well to the heavy-handed trade restrictions. Stocks were still bruised on Tuesday.
Tariff assessment
While some observers have said the threat of tariffs is a negotiating ploy or a way of revisiting USMCA, Brightbill said it’s more than that.
“Tariffs are a centerpiece of President Trump’s economic plan,” Brightbill told the Tampa audience. “Part of it is the revenue associated with the tariffs, and if you put a large tariff on the entire world, you can raise a lot of money for funding tax cuts or reducing the deficit, or whatever you want to do.
“That being said, President Trump is also extremely attuned to the stock market,” Brightbill said. “He does not want to wreck the economy. He does not want to take down the stock market, and so I think there was an element of that going on, and he chose to take that off-ramp.”
While Trump may see tariffs as a way to promote re-shoring and economic stability, tariffs are also a way to obtain reciprocity or exact revenge, Brightbill said.
“(Trump) feels like the rest of the world is ripping off the United States, and that is why those actions apply not just to our foes, not just to countries like China, but also to our neighbors to the north and south, so that that is driving a lot of this,” he noted.
Though a 30-day pause is in effect, tariffs are still on the table – and steel and aluminum are included.
Steel and aluminum are a focus for the next four years
In examining the administration’s America First trade policy, 10 sectors have been identified as high priorities, with steel and aluminum ranking on the list.
“You all, for better or worse, are the focus of this administration for the next four years, as was true during Trump 1.0,” Brightbill said.
Going forward, he said it’s important to keep in mind that the mood in Washington now is “one of radical change.”
“This administration comes in more prepared than it was eight years ago to try to change some things, regardless of what you think of that, and it’s true for trade policy as well,” Brightbill said. “And there is going to be an effort to use more of the laws, sometimes in new and different ways, sometimes in very aggressive ways.
“The question will be: What do you first do about that? What does Congress have to say? What do companies and industries have to say? What does the stock market have to say?” Brightbill remarked. “All these things will play but it is going to be a turbulent four years, and the fact that trade is such a high priority puts it on all of us to figure out the best path forward.”

Stephanie Ritenbaugh
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