The following article was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Here is how Crunch Risk saw hot rolled futures and busheling scrap futures trading over the past week: HRC Steel Hot Rolled futures (HRC) have traded modest volume this week (9280 Short Tons). Falling prices of inputs and steel in Asia have given […]
Production in the month of April at 134,874,000 metric tons was down by 2.0 percent from March but the three month moving average (3MMA) that we prefer as a measure was up by 2.0 percent. Capacity is 2.3 billion tonnes per year and capacity utilization in April was 70.5 percent. There has been a significant […]
Steel Market Update received the following question from one of our readers yesterday (Wednesday, May 18th) regarding the weekly capacity utilization rates that are produced by the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) and are published in our Tuesday evening newsletter. “This morning I was reading the latest SMU report and I was left wondering […]
Flat rolled prices took a bit of a breather this week as buyers and sellers evaluate what will happen next. The expectation is for prices to continue to move higher from here. But, maybe with the potential for a pull back in scrap coming next month, and with the amount of the increases we have […]
For the week ending May 14, 2016, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated the U.S. steel industry produced 1,727,000 net tons of raw steel, a 1.2 percent decrease over the previous week, but a 1.3 percent increase over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 73.9 percent, down […]
March ferrous scrap exports totaled 1,096,231 net tons (994,485 metric tons) with Turkey, India, Mexico, Korea, and Taiwan being the top five countries receiving scrap from the United States. These five countries accounted for 73.5 percent of all scrap exports. Total March ferrous scrap exports were 3.6 percent lower than previous month. March figures were […]
“U.S. Steel Sinks as Another Wave of Cheap Imports Predicted” was the headline in Bloomberg on Friday morning. The article cites Axiom Capital Research analyst Gordon Johnson who wrote to his clients, “A boat load of imports are likely on the way.” This opinion permeates the financial community and the pessimism is, in our opinion, […]
Flat rolled prices have been very dynamic over the past few weeks with double digit price changes and, at times, more than one price change during the course of one week. This has kept the steel price indexes busy and has shown the strength and weaknesses of the collection techniques used by each index. Flat […]
The Nucor Plate Group and SSAB have both raised plate prices by a minimum of $40 per ton. The SSAB increase applies to all non-contract business on rolled mill plate, cut-to-length plate as well as hot rolled coils greater than 72″ in width. The SSAB increase includes normalized as well as quench-and-temper plate. Nucor was […]
This week the benchmark hot rolled steel price average was reported by Steel Market Update at $610 per ton, up $40 per ton over the previous week and $120 per ton higher than just one month ago. The numbers reported this week are the highs for this calendar year and, are also the 52 week […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
The following is the March steel exports report from the American Institute for International Steel: Falls Church, VA. May 11, 2016. Steel exports changed little from February to March, though they remained well below the level of a year earlier. The 775,270 net tons of exports were 0.5 percent less than the previous month and […]
We hope the contract customers are paying attention to what is going on in the flat rolled steel spot markets. When the adjustment comes at the end of this quarter there will be some very shocked purchasing people. Spot flat rolled steel prices rose again this week by large double digits. Over the past two […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of March 2016 was 8,716,178 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. March apparent […]
March steel exports totaled 775,270 net tons (703,314 metric tons), down 0.5 percent over February and down 13.5 percent from March 2015. Total March figures are below both the thee month moving average (3MMA, average of January 2016 through March 2016 figures) and the twelve month moving average (12MMA, average of April 2015 through March […]
For the week ending May 7, 2016, the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) estimated the U.S. steel industry produced 1,748,000 net tons of raw steel, a 2.2 percent increase over the previous week and a 2.6 percent increase over the same week one year ago. The estimated capacity utilization rate is 74.7 percent, up […]
Rising stockpiles of iron ore in China have sent iron ore futures plummeting in the past week. A frenzy of speculation had pushed benchmark prices for ore to a 15 month high last month. Prices have fallen 22 percent since the peak of +$70 on April 21. This morning The Steel Index reported 62% Fe […]
On Friday, I (John Packard) was the speaker on a conference call hosted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst, Timna Tanners. This is something that I try to do a couple of times per year to help the financial community and investors in the metals and mining space to better understand the flat rolled […]
Scrap prices settled higher by $20 to $30 per gross ton delivered to the domestic steel mills, according to Steel Market Update (SMU) scrap sources. The rise in ferrous scrap prices has been one of the driving factors behind the flat rolled price increases announced by the domestic steel industry over the past few months. […]
Steel Market Update received the following letter from an executive associated with the trading industry: I enjoyed reading your article on whether ‘ 2016 will end up being another 2004 and 2008 and would like to add these observations: 1. In 2008 the economies all over the world were overheating ( not only in the […]
Licensed data for April was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on May 3rd. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of April were […]
AK Steel raised prices earlier today on all flat rolled steels by $60 per ton. The announcement is their 6th going back to early December 2015. Since December they have increased prices another $200 per ton as we have shown in the table below. Buyers and those in the financial community need to be aware […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how he saw trading over the past week: For those of you who don’t know, it’s Cinco De Mayo! So I say “Hay Caramba”. If you want to […]
Experienced steel people are beginning to look at what is happening now and comparing it against 2004 and 2008. Both of those years saw prices double (or more) as demand and supply were out of balance. A trading company executive sent SMU the following note: “Is it just me or is this feeling like 2004 […]
There have been many comments made in the press recently regarding the opinions of analysts and consultants as to how long the current flat rolled price environment will last.The Pittsburgh Post published an article by Len Boselovic entitled: “Heard off the Street: Analysts: steel price hike may not last.” This article, which quotes one of […]
Scrap negotiations are taking some time to complete as the steel mills and dealers haggle over what is an appropriate increase above what the mills paid during the month of April. Our sources are advising us that there have been a few transactions in the Midwest and in the Detroit markets. So far the Detroit […]
In an email to their customers earlier today, ArcelorMittal USA became the first mill to announce new base price minimums on flat rolled steel with the opening of their July order book. The new steel price minimums set by AM are as follows: Hot Rolled = $610 per ton ($30.50/cwt)Cold Rolled = $800 per ton […]
In case there is some confusion, flat rolled steel prices are moving higher and, with today’s announcement by ArcelorMittal it is only a matter of time before benchmark hot rolled breaches $600 per ton and cold rolled and coated breach $800 per ton (base plus extras). It has been a very difficult market to gauge […]
We received the following email from a large national service center chain: “I read with great interest your “tsunami” article on the different types of steel buyers, in the Sunday edition. Here’s another perspective I thought of after reading it: I hope that this year’s current market, which includes a high percentage of mill index […]