The U.S. government shutdown has had a negative effect on consumer expectations. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence declined each month from November through January. It appears the shutdown had a major effect on consumers’ expectations, but not so much on their perception of the present situation. The composite value of consumer confidence in […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel The HR futures curve has both flattened and risen versus physical spot HR since its lows on Jan. 7. Optimism is […]
President Trump signed an executive order today intended to boost the use of American-made iron, steel and other manufactured products in infrastructure projects by adding pressure on private and public sector entities that receive federal financial assistance. Called “Strengthening Buy American Preferences for Infrastructure Projects,” the order directs agency heads to “encourage recipients of new […]
The Steel Manufacturers Association would like to see the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement ratified by the three countries, even if it calls for a change to the tariffs. Speaking at a press briefing during SMA’s board meeting Thursday in Washington, SMA President Phil Bell said the modernized trade rules in the USMCA are an improvement on NAFTA. […]
The Chicago Business Barometer plummeted in January, falling 7.1 points to 56.7 from December’s downwardly adjusted reading of 63.8. New orders and production contributed heavily to the decline as new orders dropped to a two-year low and production to a 10-month low. Order backlogs eased to a three-month low and delivery of raw materials improved […]
By CRU Steel Editor Linda Lin, Shanghai, China Through late December and the first half of January, Chinese exporters were able to realize a small increase in steel export prices for the first time since August. The m/m increase in HR coil was limited to $2 /t, while rebar prices rose by $6 /t. Price […]
A dam belonging to Brazil mining company Vale collapsed on Friday, killing numerous people and leaving hundreds missing. The dam, holding byproducts from the Feijao mining operation Brumadinho in Minas Gerai, released a torrent of sludge on the dam complex and nearby farms and neighborhoods. Approximately 300 Vale employees were working at the site when […]
The Chicago Business Barometer for December was revised downward to 63.8 from 65.4 following annual seasonal adjustments. The changes resulted in higher growth for first and second quarter, no change in third quarter, but a downward revision for the fourth quarter. The results indicate a cooling of growth at the end of 2018, said MNI […]
The growth of China’s economy has slowed partly as a result of the tariff war with the United States, and China may be in a mood for serious negotiation. Once each quarter, we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving […]
In Q3 and Q4 2018, the Pacific region regained the lead as the engine of national job creation. Fourth-quarter employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the strong employment situation that we reported earlier at the national level. In the fourth […]
Global steel production slowed in December, but this was purely a seasonal effect. Global steel production in December was at an annual rate of 1.765 billion metric tons. Capacity is calculated to be 2.4 billion tons and capacity utilization in December was 74.0 percent, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel […]
Steel Market Update asked: When do you expect flat rolled steel prices to reverse course and begin rising? Judging by the widely varied responses to this week’s market trends questionnaire, there is no clear consensus among steel buyers on when prices will turn around. A small group, about 6 percent, said they believe prices will […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in Metal and […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in Metal and […]
The Architecture Billings Index dipped in December, falling to 50.4 from 54.7 in November, according to the latest report by the American Institute of Architects. Billings continued to be positive for the 15th consecutive month, scoring above the neutral reading of 50. Backlogs lengthened to an average of 6.4 months in December, a historical record […]
This article on the competitiveness of steel against other products was originally produced last week for Steel Market Update Premium members. We want our entire readership to review the analysis done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and then analyzed by Peter Wright on our staff. If you would like information about upgrading to Premium […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals Chief Market Risk Officer, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled futures market, and we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures articles for Steel […]
Steel became less competitive in 2018 against aluminum, plastic and wood, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data. The cost of carbon cold rolled sheet was up more than twice as much as aluminum sheet, and steel pipe was up by nine times as much as plastic […]
The U.S. dollar has retreated from the last Steel Market Update currency report when it had the highest value on the foreign exchange markets for over 16 years. In the last month, the dollar weakened against 13 of the 16 currencies that Steel Market Update tracks. This was a turnaround from November when it strengthened […]
With no end in sight for U.S.-imposed steel tariffs, United Steelworkers in Canada urge the federal government to keep safeguards in place to guard against foreign steel imports. “Our members themselves are appearing this month before the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) to make the case for extending safeguard measures beyond the original 200-day period […]
Sherwin-Williams has announced a 6 percent hike in the cost of paint effective in March, upsetting customers in the prepainted steel and aluminum market. “There is no justification for this paint increase,” said one coil coater. “Oil prices are at their lowest level in years.” Sherwin-Williams raised prices twice last year when oil prices were […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update’s source in China reports on recent remarks by Chinese economic expert Xiang Songzuo, who warned that the nation’s economy is showing signs of crashing. Xiang showed courage in being publicly critical of the government, which later banned his remarks from the internet. “You can look at the history: Only the […]
Manufacturing firms in New York State are less optimistic regarding future business conditions than they were in December. In the January 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the future business outlook index fell 13 points to 17.8. The indices for future new orders and new shipments plunged 15.3 points and 11.4 points, respectively. Overall business activity […]
When the public first learned the government was shutting down, many of us thought, “Glad I don’t work for Uncle Sam!” Now, as the shutdown extends its record as the longest in U.S. history, the effects are being felt well beyond the households of government employees. Even here at Steel Market Update. With government data […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession, but the yield curve and housing permits should be on our radar screen. Recessions are defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the organization tasked with identifying when a recession starts and ends, as back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth. […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. This month we have revamped our recession monitor report to make it more time sensitive. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that steel demand is related to GDP but is vastly […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Since the beginning of the year, the forward curve in CME HR futures has shifted down roughly $25/ST on average for […]
With the partial government shutdown in its 20th day, the political standoff in Washington over President Trump’s border wall remains focused on his $5.7 billion budget request. The larger question is whether a construction project of the scale the president has proposed is even feasible, at any cost. From a steel industry standpoint, the project […]
U.S. tariffs on steel imports from Canada continue to put pressure on Canadian producers while goverment officials seek an ending to the trade measures. Algoma Steel, which recently emerged from bankruptcy protection, is one of the vulnerable steel producers affected by Section 232. The second largest mill in Canada is expected to receive up to […]