The third quarter of 2019 saw a disappointing decrease in labor productivity. The labor productivity of nonfarm businesses decreased by 0.3 percent in the quarter. Unit labor costs increased 3.1 percent year over year, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Unit labor costs and productivity changes are […]
Change and growth, both personal and professional, were the dominant topics at the 2019 Annual Conference of the Association of Women in the Metal Industries, held in San Antonio Nov. 6-9. Beginning with a workshop by Asbury Group CEO Kailei Carr—”Unveil Your Most Powerful Self”—and ending with Anne Phelon, CEO at Merrett Davies International—”Moving from […]
The U.S and Canada active rig count declined again this past week, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The active drill rigs count is important to the steel industry because it is a leading indicator of oil country tubular goods demand. The number of active U.S. rigs fell by 11 to 806, with oil […]
The composite producer price index of all commodities peaked in October last year and in 12 months through September has declined by 3.2 percent. This Steel Market Update report is an analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and is intended to provide subscribers with a view of the competitive position of sheet steel, aluminum, […]
Demand for steel sheet products declined by more than the seasonal norm in September. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export data from the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis summarizes total steel supply by product from 2003 […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Canadian integrated steelmaker Stelco managed to improve on its revenues and operating income from the second to the third quarter, but still reported an $11 million loss in Q3 adjusted net income. The company plans to expand its product mix by adding pig iron production and shipments in 2020. Third-quarter revenue of CAD $475 million […]
By Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Global sheet prices remain in a downtrend for November, though are starting to recover in some markets. Overall, CRU’s Global Flat Products Price Indicator (CRUspi flats) fell 3.3 percent m/m in November to 137.7, the lowest level recorded since October 2016. This indicator of global […]
Needle coke and graphite electrode availability has been under pressure since 2017 following substantial financially and environmentally driven capacity closures, particularly in China. With prices under pressure in 2019, and margins rapidly falling, the graphite electrode and needle coke markets appear to be at a crossroads with many questions about the future for these markets. […]
The Dodge Momentum Index increased 6.9 percent in October to 152.6 from a revised September reading of 142.7. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR futures markets have been range-trading the last few weeks as participants have been focusing on what appears to be a […]
The global manufacturing downturn showed some signs of easing in October. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI posted 49.8, still in contraction but rising for the third consecutive month. The intermediate goods sector fell to a three-month low of 48.8, but PMIs for consumer and investor goods saw expansion in October. The Eurozone remained in contraction […]
The rate of job creation in October slowed, partly due to the GM strike. Net job creation in October declined to 128,000 from an upwardly revised 180,000 in September. August was revised up by 51,000 and September up by 44,000. In combination, this was the highest upwards two-month revision that we can remember. Rising employment […]
Jobs have been lost in the primary metals sector in each of the last seven months. In October, 10,000 jobs were created in construction, while manufacturing industries lost 36,000 jobs. A reported 131,000 jobs were created in the private sector, while government lost 3,000 positions. Table 1 breaks total employment down into service and goods-producing […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
Steel prices continued their decline in October to an average hot rolled price below $500 per ton, prompting a $40 per ton price increase announcement by the flat rolled mills late in the month. With a price change in play, Steel Market Update switched its Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. Widespread concerns about the declining […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison On Oct. 30, the Fed cut rates by 25bp as was widely anticipated (including by us), lowering the Federal Funds rate to a range of 1.50 percent-1.75 percent. Based on the Fed statement and comments during Chair Powell’s press conference, the Fed seems pleased with where monetary policy is, […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in October with a reading of 48.3, the third month of contraction, indicating continued softening in the manufacturing sector. The October reading was an increase of 0.5 percentage points from September. Nine of the ten components of the index registered below the neutral point of […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
China’s steel production continues to grow as the rest of the world contracts. Figure 1 shows annualized monthly global steel production on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis and capacity utilization since January 2000. The OECD has taken over responsibility for tracking global steel capacity. Their data shows that global capacity declined each year 2016 […]
Manufacturing in the Midwest was weaker in August as slowing global trade continued to impact the region. The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 43.2 in October from 47.1 in September, further sinking into contraction and posting its lowest reading since December 2015. The three-month average fell to 46.9. New orders were at their lowest level […]
The international debate over the world’s oversupply of steel will go on, but without China’s participation in the G20’s Global Forum on Excess Steel Capacity. Ministers meeting in Tokyo over the weekend declined to extend the mandate for the forum, which is scheduled to lapse in December, primarily due to opposition from China. Other nations […]
Mexican steel maker Altos Hornos de México, S.A.B. de C.V. (AHMSA) earnings in the third quarter of 2019 declined across the board due to unfavorable steel market conditions. AHMSA EBITDA plummeted 149.6 percent from 3Q 2018 for a loss of $40.4 million. EBITDA in the steel segment plunged 132.1 percent for a loss of $31 […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson The North American market has continued to see steel prices erode. We had previously anticipated that October scrap prices may be the lowest price seen over the next several years. We are now hearing that at least some market participants expect gains for November. The recent decline in scrap […]
Finding skilled workers is the top concern among respondents to The Fabricator’s 2019 “What Keeps You Up at Night?” survey. Published by the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, the survey asked fabrication company executives to rank their concerns from a list that included availability of credit, availability of skilled workers, consolidation of competition and customers, cost […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Economic Analyst Ippolito Tarabini and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen World industrial production growth halved in 2019H1 to 1.5 percent from 3 percent in 2018, suffering because of a slowdown in China, the widespread downturn in the automotive sector, and the unpredictable trade negotiations between the U.S. and the rest of the world, particularly […]
Durable goods orders fell by the greatest amount since May, dropping 1.1 percent in September, significantly more than analysts’ estimates of a 0.8 percent decline. Core capital goods, non-defense minus aircraft and a proxy for business investment, fell 0.5 percent. The latest Census Bureau report indicates further weakness in the manufacturing sector. Continued uncertainty regarding […]
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months and against eight in the last month. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow […]