Timna Tanners, metals and mining analyst for Bank of America, will be the guest speaker for the next SMU Community Chat, beginning at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May 6. Tanners raised eyebrows last year with her prediction that the mills’ many planned capacity additions would oversupply the market in the next few years and […]
This week’s SMU comparison of foreign and domestic hot rolled prices shows that U.S prices are becoming even more advantageous over foreign imports, according to SMU and CRU indices. The price gap between domestic HRC compared to German and Italian products has widened significantly over the past few months, and the East/Southeast Asian price spread […]
A strong beginning to the first quarter in Mexico supported shipments for Ternium S.A. as operations were locked down in South America due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company expects shipments to decrease about 30 percent in the second quarter and increase going forward in the second half of the year. “We don’t see a […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
The Chicago Business Barometer dropped to its lowest level since the recession in March 2009. The April PMI plummeted 12.4 points to 35.4, said MNI Indicators. New orders and production recorded the steepest declines, falling 21 points and 19 points, respectively. The order backlogs index eased 7.4 percent after reporting gains in February and March. […]
Steps to contain the spread of COVID-19 have dealt a serious blow to construction, which is the largest market for steel. Construction will be the focus of this week’s SMU Community Chat. Two out of three construction executives responding to an April 20-23 survey by the Associated General Contractors of America reported that they are […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores and CME Group Commodities Research Analyst Gregor Spilker The CME Group recently launched a new steel futures contract which follows the U.S. hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) coil market. The U.S. Midwest Domestic Steel Premium (CRU) Futures is financially settled against the difference between U.S. Midwest hot-dipped galvanized coil (base) steel […]
Durable goods orders plummeted 14.4 percent in March to $213.2 billion, said the U.S. Census Bureau in its latest report. The decrease followed three consecutive months of increase and was the largest monthly decline since August 2014. Transportation equipment led the decrease in March falling 41 percent to $51.2 billion. Commercial aircraft and parts plunged […]
The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly taken a toll on American lives and the economy. The first case of the disease in the U.S. was reported 88 days ago on Jan. 22. As of April 21, there have been 784,326 reported infections and 42,094 deaths. The toll on the U.S. economy has been devastating. Stay-at-home orders […]
Economic activity contracted “sharply and abruptly” last month, according to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report. The report, covering activity through April 6, showed leisure and hospitality industries bearing the brunt of the decline. “All Districts reported highly uncertain outlooks among business contacts, with most expecting conditions to worsen in the next several months,” said […]
This week’s SMU comparison of foreign and domestic hot rolled prices shows that U.S prices continue to remain advantageous over foreign imports, even further so than two weeks ago, according to SMU and CRU indices. The price gap between domestic HRC compared to German and Italian products has widened significantly over the past few weeks, […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel Falling demand and mill capacity utilization rates below 60 percent do not seem to have damped the HR futures curve since […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged to its lowest level ever, falling 57 points to a reading of -78.2, in April. “By way of comparison, the lowest level this indicator had reached prior to April was -34.3 during the Great Recession,” said the New York Federal Reserve. New York City has been the epicenter for […]
The U.S. dollar strengthened against 14 of the 16 steel and raw materials trading nation currencies in the last three months and also in the last month. There was a turnaround in the last seven days when the dollar weakened against 14 of the 16. In the last three months, the currencies of Brazil, Mexico, […]
Manufacturers and distributors up and down the supply chain have been disappointed to learn that their insurance coverage does not protect them from the coronavirus. “Pandemic outbreaks are uninsured because they are uninsurable,” said David A. Sampson, president and CEO of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA), the trade group for home, auto and […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
In a new trade outlook by the World Trade Organization, WTO Director Roberto Azevêdo called the global economic situation “ugly.” “The unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself,” said Azevêdo. “The immediate goal is to bring the […]
By CRU Senior Cost Analyst Ross Cunningham, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Covid-19 has spread across the world at alarming rates. As of March 28, the pandemic has reached 177 countries and shows little sign of letting up. When fighting a global health and economic crisis unlike anything ever seen before, there will be no winners—only […]
The employment situation in the U.S. is a disaster. The current economic situation is so extraordinarily dire that historical data and trend analysis is almost irrelevant except to illustrate the severity of the situation we are all experiencing. Net job creation in March was negative 701,000 and January was revised down by 59,000, according to […]
We’re all saturated with news of the employment disaster caused by the coronavirus, but to look at the long-term picture graphically is still shocking. Figure 1 shows the three-month moving average (3MMA) of the number of jobs created or lost through April since 2005 as the brown bars and the total number employed as the […]
The U.S. lost a net 701,000 jobs in March as the economy struggled with the coronavirus, and the labor situation is expected to be much worse in April. The brunt of March’s employment decline was felt by service industries. In the coming months, manufacturing and construction jobs will suffer more as well. Table 1 breaks […]
More than 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs in April, including 18.1 million in service industries and 2.4 million in goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and construction, according to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest job losses came on top of 870,000 lost in March, following a gain of 230,000 […]
CRU is forecasting that North American steel sheet prices will find a bottom sometime this summer, but will remain volatile while supply and demand gradually rebalance as the coronavirus crisis subsides. CRU projects steel consumption will decline by 22 percent this year as a result of virus-related shutdowns in automotive and other key manufacturing industries. […]
The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the ultimate economic cost of this health crisis has fuelled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen joins Doug Hilderhoff, principal analyst for aluminium, and Josh Spoores, principal analyst for […]
The latest SMU comparison of foreign and domestic hot rolled prices shows that U.S prices continue to remain advantageous over foreign imports, according to SMU and CRU indices released earlier this week. The price gap between domestic HRC compared to German and Italian products has widened to over $100 per ton since our previous price […]
The month of March saw government actions to stop the spread of the coronavirus begin to take a toll on steel demand and prices. In reaction, Steel Market Update’s Buyers Sentiment Index plunged by more than 20 points. Flat rolled steel prices declined from February, with the benchmark price of hot rolled down to a […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson, from the CRU Steel Monitor As expected, sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market have fallen. Prices today, reflective of transactions booked last week, fell by $13-26 /s.ton w/w. For all sheet prices, we continue to hear of lower priced offers and expect that transaction prices will continue to […]
Global manufacturing continued its downturn in March exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The J.P. Morgan Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.6 from 47.1 in February due to a stabilization of business conditions in China. China’s PMI jumped from 40.3 in February to 50.1 in March as manufacturing activity returned to more normal conditions after new coronavirus […]
A sharp decline in new orders and production drove the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI into contraction in March, falling to 49.1 from February’s reading of 50.1 percent. “The coronavirus pandemic and shocks in global energy markets have impacted all manufacturing sectors,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management. New orders […]
The Chicago Business Barometer remained in contraction for the ninth month, declining 1.1 points in March to 47.8. New orders fell 7.9 percent while production slipped back into contraction. Order backlogs rose to their highest level since December 2019. “While some firms reported a rise in orders due to stockpiling by U.S. customers, others noted […]