The U.S. economy is on track to grow further next year, say purchasing executives surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management, continuing the trend that began in mid-2009. In its December 2018 Semiannual Economic Forecast, ISM reported that the manufacturing sector is optimistic about business conditions in 2019, with revenues expected to increase in 17 […]
Planning for new commercial building projects drove a 5.3 percent increase for the Dodge Momentum Index, resulting in a reading of 159.7 in November. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by […]
Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this new role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategy for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a Trader at Cargill spending time in Metal […]
How long will this economic cycle last? That is the difficult question HARDInomics posed to Anirban Basu, Chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group. Currently, the economy is at the peak of an economic cycle, said Basu, and is experiencing a “49-year low in unemployment, a monthly job creation winning streak that is unprecedented, surging […]
U.S. gross domestic product grew in every region of the country in the second quarter of 2018, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The BEA introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and backdated it to Q1 2005. Last week, the data was updated through Q2 2018. Even […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession, but the yield curve and housing permits should be on our radar screen. Steel Market Update has been producing this report every three months. We are now increasing the frequency to two months as the pundits are discussing the timing of the […]
By the CRU Group Economics Team The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump on Dec. 1 turned out to be better than expected. According to the White House press release and Chinese official reports, tariffs will not rise from their current levels over the next 90 days. Both sides agreed to enter immediate […]
Demand remains strong in the manufacturing sector, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The PMI, from the Institute for Supply Management, increased 1.6 percentage points to 59.3 in November. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. New orders rose 4.7 points to 61.1, well above the 52.4 percent value that indicates growth. […]
Global manufacturing remained stalled in November. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI stayed at 52.0, unchanged from the 23-month low posted in October. Growth in new orders and production was subdued with the greatest expansion noted in the consumer sector. Improved business conditions were seen in the U.S, Eurozone, Japan, China, the UK, Brazil and […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
November saw steel prices continue to decline, with benchmark hot rolled dipping below $800 per ton, cold rolled below $900 per ton, and galvanized below $1,000 per ton. Plate continued to hold its own at over $1,000 per ton as mills kept customers on allocation while they worked to meet strong demand. Steel Market Update […]
A new North American trade agreement was signed on Friday by leaders of the U.S., Mexico and Canada at the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires. The U.S-Mexico-Canada Agreement, as it will be called by the United States, failed to address the Section 232 tariffs that were at the root of contentious negotiations. “The USMCA is […]
The Chicago Business Barometer jumped 8.0 points in November to an 11-month high of 66.4. Business was booming as new orders rose to their highest level since May 2014 and output increased for the second straight month. “The MNI Chicago Business Barometer clipped a run of three consecutive declines in emphatic style in November, boosted […]
Steel production in China continues to outpace other nations. China’s steel production grew eight times faster than production in the rest of the world in the three-month period from August through October, according to the latest Steel Market Update analysis of World Steel Association data. Global steel production in October hit an annual rate of […]
U.S. consumer confidence lost momentum in November. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence declined for the month, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) continued to advance. The board’s composite value of consumer confidence in November was 135.7, down from 137.9 in October. The 3MMA, which smooths the data to reduce monthly volatility, increased from […]
This is the first time we have done this analysis since our April publication and we were surprised that the results for sheet and strip products weren’t as good as we expected. Our analysis is based on data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce (DoC). The analysis […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR spot prices continued to fall this week breaking down through the $800/ST [$40/cwt] level. The HR futures followed suit. Futures […]
Tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum exports to Mexico may be coming if the Trump administration does not drop its Section 232 tariffs on Mexican imports, says Mexican steel association Canacero. “They already agreed, this government and the incoming one, that we will apply resounding mirror measures,” Canacero Vice President Raul Gutierrez said at a […]
Editor’s note: The following global perspective was contributed by the CRU Group’s international team of steel analysts. Steel sheet prices are trending downward in most parts of the world. North America Sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market continued to decline with HR and CR coil prices falling the most. Declines have come alongside weak […]
Nucor is increasing its presence in Mexico with the acquisition of Corporacion POK, a fully integrated precision castings company with a facility in Guadalajara. “Our company has had a presence in Mexico for more than a decade. We know the market and the customers there. This acquisition supports Nucor’s strategy in Mexico, which is focused […]
Metalforming firms are expecting a decline in business conditions and new orders during the next three months, according to the November 2018 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. The PMA is a monthly economic indicator for manufacturing, sampling 122 metalforming companies in the United States and Canada. Current average shipping levels were steady in […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is sharing the following Premium content with all its readers in this issue. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The U.S. dollar has on average been relatively stable in the last three months against the currencies of the other steel trading nations. In […]
Durable goods orders fell 4.4 percent in October, heralding a weak start to the fourth quarter and a softening in business investment. The drop was the steepest monthly decline since July 2017. Volatile aircraft orders drove most of the decline, with commercial aircraft orders diving 21.4 percent and defense aircraft orders plummeting 59.3 percent. Orders […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel import prices (delivered to USA ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other […]
By Lisa Morrison, CRU Principal Economist As of Nov. 15, with votes still to be counted in some districts, the Democrats had won 230 seats, and Republicans 199 seats, in the House of Representatives, where 218 of 435 seats constitutes a majority. Democrats that were elected by flipping a Republican seat are a more varied […]
Despite paying CAD $39 million in tariffs on 24 percent of its shipments, Canadian steel producer Stelco turned in a stellar performance in third-quarter 2018. Stelco reported third-quarter revenue of $619 million, 84 percent higher than a year ago due to a 43 percent increase in steel shipping volumes and a 24 percent increase in […]
Manufacturing in New York State strengthened more than expected in November. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business index rose two points to 23.3 as new orders and shipments showed moderate growth. Forty-one percent of respondents reported that general business conditions had improved over the month, while 18 percent reported that conditions had worsened. Manufacturers […]
Steel Facing Stiff Competition from Other Products This article is regularly published for our Premium users, but we decided to share it with our entire readership this month. If you are interested in upgrading to a Premium subscription, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475. Steel is becoming less competitive compared to aluminum, plastic and wood. […]
“The glass ceiling is myth that gives you an excuse to fail.” A bold statement to make at a gathering of professional women, but that is what keynote speaker Mary Lindsey, Vice President and CFO Commercial Metals Co., said at the Association of Women in the Metal Industries annual conference last week. “There is too much […]
Economic activity expanded across the United States with the majority of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth in the September-October period, according to the Fed’s Beige Book released late last month. However, several Districts indicated that firms faced rising materials and shipping costs, uncertainties over the trade environment and difficulties finding […]