Truck capacity may get a boost from new orders to manufacturers. Orders for Class 8 trucks increased by 14.2 percent in May for a total of 26,900 units, according to ACT Research. The increase in truck capacity is good news for the industry that is at an all time high capacity. The bad news is […]
The past few weeks have been dire for the futures market in terms of volumes or price volatility. While the physical market has peaked for now, the futures market remains in a strong backwardation with prices for second half the year and calendar year 2015 stuck between 620-630 per ton. While the global picture, particularly […]
Steel inputs were steady to down during the month of May. Scrap prices declined $18 to $3 per ton while iron ore prices were down $20.60 to $13.60 per ton. Zinc and Aluminum prices showed a slight increased of $0.0105 to $0.0074 per pound.
The auto sale roundup for May started out with gusto. Early reporter Chrysler posted US automotive sales at 194,421 units, a 17 percent increase year over year. Chrysler’s Jeep brand set a sales record in May with 64 percent jump in sales. On CNBC this morning, they were reporting Chrysler as saying their forecast was […]
Manufacturing expanded for the 12th consecutive month in May according to the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business released by the Institute of Supply Management. The PMI registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 0.5 percent. The new orders index grew 1.8 points to 56.9. The production index gained 5.3 points to a reading of 61.0 percent. Employment continued […]
Steel Market Update has been following the Armada Corporate Intelligence economists since we first heard Dr. Chris Kuehl present at a conference we attended earlier this year. We were so impressed with both Dr. Kuehl’s (pronounced Keel) presentation skills and their newsletter that we invited Dr. Kuehl to be a keynote speaker at this year’s […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI made a modest uptick to 52.2 in May after dropping to a six month low of 51.9 in April. Faster expansion rates were seen in production, new orders and orders for new exports. Overall improvement, however, remains modest with the average rate of increase in business conditions lower than […]
As usual we will spend a few moments taking a look at the month of May in our rear view mirror to see what transpired. SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted during the month from Higher to Neutral as we detected a change in the supply/demand dynamics with the return to full production at US […]
Economic indicators were mostly positive in May. Housing starts and sales improved while the ABI dropped. Respondents to the various economic surveys were generally upbeat about future economic and business conditions. Steel buyers looked for more of the same activity for the next six months. The abbreviated breakdown follows. New home sales bounced back in […]
The Chicago Business Barometer reached its highest level since October, climbing 2.5 point to 65.5. The new reading, when taken with other economic indicators, shows a strong recovery in the second quarter after a lackluster start to the year. This is good news for the flat rolled steel industry in North America. With winter finally […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution instructor penned the following commentary on the financial, iron ore, scrap and steel markets and the results of trading on the HRC and BUS Futures markets over this past week. More information about futures can […]
Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution instructor penned the following commentary on the iron ore, scrap and steel markets and the results of trading on the HRC and BUS Futures markets over this past week (as of May 29th). More information […]
Earlier this week SteelBenchmarker reported their latest world export price for hot rolled steel at $501 per net ton ($552 per metric ton), unchanged from their price two weeks ago. With an estimated $70 per ton in freight, handling and trader margin added, that puts the world price at approximately $571 per ton CIF USA […]
In late May SteelBenchmarker reported their world export price for hot rolled steel at $501 per net ton ($552 per metric ton), unchanged from their price earlier in the month. With an estimated $70 per ton in freight, handling and trader margin added, that puts the world HRC price at approximately $571 per ton CIF […]
The China Ministry of Finance is urging the government to step up spending to support growth in the Chinese economy. The announcement on May 28 follows a call for action by Premier Li Keqiang to increase development projects, which he considers a panacea for China’s economic woes. The notice by the Ministry has three key […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 1.3 in May. The view of the present situation rose by 1.9 as expectations rose by 0.9. These two components are converging, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, after which the view of the present situation will take the lead. On the whole consumer confidence […]
Durable Goods, a measure of the health of the steel industry, saw new orders increase for the fourth consecutive month in April ,continuing the healthy trend that has existed since the recession. Both March and April were above trend, (Figure 1). The three month moving average (3MMA) increased in both March and April, (Figure 2). […]
New home sales bounced back in April after declining for two straight months. New residential sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 in last month, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. April’s rate increased 6.4 percent following a plummet of 10 percent in […]
The past couple of weeks have been a bit brutal for the US hot rolled coil (HRC) forward curve. While the spot market is appearing to run out of steam the HRC forward curve has broken down particularly the second half 2014 periods and calendar 2015 periods. May and June have withstood this recent selling […]
The Architecture Billings Index remains in negative territory again this month. The ABI, which reflects the nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, was at 49.6 in April, up slightly from 48.8 last month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction and a reading above 50 indicates an increase in design […]
Chinese steel trade data for April 2014 was released earlier this week, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in April were 83,390,000 metric tons, an increase of 12.8 percent from the previous month and an increase of 24.2 percent from […]
Every month, Steel Market Update calculates whether flat rolled steel distributor’s inventories are in excess or a deficit based on our proprietary formula. The Metal Service Center Institute released April data late last week and, based on our analysis, we believe the “apparent deficit” to be 251,000 tons. This represents an improvement of 101,000 tons […]
Steel Market Update attended SMDI’s “Great Designs in Steel” conference on May 14. This was the 12th year of the popular GDIS conference, and it was well attended with over 1200 auto steel players. The focus of the conference was on auto light weighting through the use of advanced high strength steels (AHSS). There were […]
The following article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for our brand new Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution workshop. Every week we produce an article about futures trading and, in Andre’s case, about the broader financial markets. Andre begins with the a look at the financial […]
SteelBenchmarker released regional pricing earlier this week, putting the world export hot rolled price at $501 per net ton ($552 per metric ton). The spread between the SMU HR price and the world HR price went from $173 per ton two weeks ago to $184 as of Monday. With an estimated $70 per ton in […]
Metalforming companies are predicting little change in economic conditions in the next three months, according to data from the May 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. Incoming orders are also expected to remain relatively unchanged during the period. Current daily shipping levels declined in May compared to three months ago according to those […]
Indicators in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia May 2014 Business Outlook Survey were positive for the third consecutive month indicting manufacturing activity continues to expand in the Third District. The general activity index dropped slightly from 16.6 in April to 15.4 in May. New orders and current shipments decreased by 4 and 9 points, […]
Manufacturing conditions improved significantly in May according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index leapt 18 points to 19.0, up from a weak reading of 1.3 in April and at its highest level in four years. New orders and shipments rose from […]
The Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, March 2014 was just released indicating a 0.4 percent improvement in manufacturing sales in March. Higher sales were seen in food, machinery and plastics & rubber, but were offset by declines in paper, petroleum and coal products. Two thirds of the manufacturing sector had increased sales in March with […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and in particular debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and willingness to take […]