For CME Group hot rolled coil (HRC) volume – November 2013 volume 3,869 contracts traded (77,380 short tons) compared to November 2012 volume 2,198 contracts traded (43,960 ST) – a 37.1 percent increase year over year. HRC 2013 YTD volume 51,163 contracts traded versus 2012 YTD volume 41,455 contracts traded – a 23.4 percent increase […]
US automakers had a stellar month, beating analyst auto sales forecasts with November sales of 1,238,322 vehicles. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate for November soared to 16.4 million, well above 15.3 million a year ago. General Motors delivered 212,060 vehicles in November, its highest November sales in six years. Retail sales were up 19 percent […]
December tends to be a slow month having just come off of a late in the month Thanksgiving Holiday coupled with Christmas and the Jewish Holidays during the month of December. The bottom line is there are a limited number of shipping days during the month. One of the first things SMU will be watching […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index business conditions held steady for New York manufacturers in October. The general business index fell 5 points to 1.5 but remained in growth status. The new orders index rose 5 points while shipping fell 3 points, suggesting modest increases for both indexes for the month. New York manufacturers continued to […]
Negotiations on 2014 flat rolled steel contracts are heating up. Sources are advising Steel Market Update that there has been some movement in the negotiation process by the domestic mills which has allowed a number of the mills to close some 2014 business. We are also hearing from multiple sources of a move by buyers […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 in November from 52.1 in October, indicating a faster improvement in overall operating conditions. Manufacturing output and new orders rose at the quickest pace since February 2011. A moderate rise in employment was reported the US, Japan, the UK, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam, Canada […]
The November ISM Report for November 2013 indicated expansion in the manufacturing sector for the sixth consecutive month and the highest PMI (purchasing mangers index) reading for the year. The PMI registered 57.3 percent, up from 56.4 percent in October. Indices for new orders, production, employment and exports picked up their pace of growth in […]
The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is a monthly estimate by major industry of manufacturing output in the Seventh Federal Reserve District states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is a composite index of 15 manufacturing industries that uses hours worked data to measure monthly changes in regional activity. The three month […]
In November consumer confidence declined for the third consecutive month. This was entirely due to the expectations component of the index. On a three month moving average basis the news looks better (Figure 1). On this basis the present situation component has been little changed for four months but expectations have taken a dive, probably […]
The Fifth District Manufacturing Index surged to 13 in November from an index reading of 1 in October. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, almost all business activity indicators rose except for capacity utilization and backlog of orders, which were flat for the month. The index for shipments advanced 18 points while the […]
The S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 11.2 percent year-over-year for its highest level since 2006, according to data compiled through September 2013. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the third quarter index rose 3.2 percent. The index is based on the annual returns of 10-City and 20-City Composites. Twelve of the 20 cities posted […]
One of the questions we hear on a continuous basis is, how much foreign flat rolled steel import is really coming and what impact will it have on domestic steel prices (and when)? Steel Market Update conducted our most recent analysis of the flat rolled steel market over this past week. Based on the responses […]
Shipping markets in the Gulf are seeing some strong rates as producers are anxious to fix and load cargoes before the holidays and year end according to the November 20th MID-SHIP Report. Shipping rates in the The Cape and Panamax markets have eased in the past two weeks but Chinese steel mill restocking of iron […]
Tenth District: Manufacturing activity and expectations for future growth grew modestly in the Tenth District in November according to a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The index for new orders surged from 3 to 15, month-over-month, and indices increased for order backlogs and employment. Indices fell in production, shipments, new […]
After weeks of ascending prices, the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market has taken a breather in the last couple of days. Prices have retreated by about $5-10/ton down the curve as a weaker than expected Wednesday brought in several new sellers to the market. November and December periods remain well bid around $660 but, […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Thursday reported October results. These statistics are a useful way to evaluate any changes in the competitive position of steel against competing materials. For the purpose of this report, SMU […]
Existing home sales fell in October but low inventory continues to drive home prices upward said the National Association of Realtors in their November report. Existing housing inventory stood at 2.13 million homes at the end of October—a drop of 1.8 percent from last month. Home sales fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual […]
After three months of increases, the Architecture Billing Index dropped to 51.6 in October from 54.3 in September, indicating a slower pace of growth for construction design activity. The new project inquiry index, an indicator for future demand, rose to 61.5 from 58.6 last month. Calculated on a three month moving average, the regional averages […]
Canadian manufacturing sales rose 0.6 percent to $49.9 billion in September according to the November release by Statistics Canada. Sales were at their highest level since June 2012 mostly due to gains in the automobile and food industries. Volume sales gained 1.0 percent for the month, a positive indicator for economic health. Of the 21 […]
Both industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 99.98 for October, down by 0.14 from September. This index is based on the July 2007 level being defined as 100. The three month moving average, (3MMA) accelerated to a […]
Global steel prices may have finally bottomed out, said Severstal CFO Alexey Kulichenko. Severstal sees a slow recovery in store for 2014 with steel prices similar to those in 2013. “We don’t really believe there is more room for going down, so we think on average maybe we have reached the bottom,” said Kulichenko said […]
Financial Markets When I last wrote I commented that it was likely we would head back up solidly into the 1775-1800 zone on S+P 500 before attempting any retracement. Well, today we closed 1790. We should meet some pretty good resistance here which we will likely test for a couple of weeks. With yearend approaching, […]
Iron Ore Resilient is the word best used to describe this market with Iron Ore still $136.6/MT on the index. A third ISM number out of China above 50, this time for October, has some traders quite buoyed by the growth potential there. Growth out of China is as clear as mud as always, but […]
Metalforming companies expect improved business activity for the next three months after expressing pessimism in October. The November 2013 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report showed an uptick in the number of survey respondents who anticipate improvement in business conditions as well as improvement in new orders. Average daily shipping levels were above levels […]
November 12, 2013, Falls Church, VA – The American Institute for International Steel announces the selection of Richard Chriss as its new Executive Director, replacing David Phelps, who is retiring. David served as the Institute’s Executive Director and later President for the past 17 years. Mr. Chriss will assume his new position on November 18, […]
Net job creation in October was 204,000; August and September were revised up by 45,000 and 15,000 respectively. In October 169,000 jobs were created in services and 35,000 in goods producing industries. The private sector added 212,000 jobs as government shed 8,000. Of the goods producing, 19,000 were in manufacturing and 11,000 in construction (Table […]
In the last issue of SMU, the Final Thoughts article had information from the financial community with a Bloomberg graphic pointing out the difference between U.S. benchmark hot rolled coil prices and those from the rest of the world. The premise being the $190 spread recognized by the financial community was unsustainable. The net result […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and in particular debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and […]
As expected a couple of mills have announced hot rolled coil price increases today, with more expected to follow in the coming days. These hikes have been anticipated by most in the physical market but appear to have caught a few in the paper market off guard as bids quickly entered the market at extremely […]
TSI Iron Ore: Market Remains Firm Iron ore prices have continued to be strong as Rebar futures have bounced off recent months lows last week and spot steel in China continues to go higher. Over the past couple of weeks iron ore prices have pushed up around $5/ton down the curve with Q1 trading around […]