Winter weather has taken its toll on builder confidence in the single-family home market says the National Association of Homebuilders. Builders also expressed concern about labor shortage and scarcity of available lots. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 10 points to 46, with all three of the major components of the index falling in […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) received an email from one of our readers regarding his concerns as the iron ore spot prices drop in China and ore inventories rise. The writers belief is that United States flat rolled steel prices will be impacted eventually. This service center executive wondered what our Asian iron ore and steel […]
In the month since this analysis was last published, the US dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 nations that we consider to be major players in either the iron ore market or in steel product trade or both. Most notably, the Russian Rouble and the South African Rand have declined by 4.7 percent […]
The European Union was formed in 1992 with the signing of the Maastricht Treaty on European Union (TEU). In an effort to instill fiscal discipline and encourage trade and free flow of labor and capital without giving up sovereignty, member countries would participate in a monetary union while remaining fiscally independent. The caveat was countries […]
When I last wrote I mentioned we would test the S & P 1720-1750 zone before attempting a rebound. We reached a 1737 low and we are now in rebound mode these last two weeks with the market last at 1829 zone. We are headed back to test the highs at 1850 to see if […]
Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC shared the following information about iron ore and busheling futures trading for the past week. Iron Ore: As always traders make a big deal about the Chinese post New Year’s holiday making a big buying push upon their return, but it appears whatever buying has been done hasn’t been […]
POSCO announced the completion of a second continuous galvanizing line in Altamira, Tamauliapas, that will serve the flourishing automobile industry in Mexico. The new facility has an annual capacity of 500,000 tons and will produce galvanized steel sheet used in exterior panels of high end automobiles. Products from 2CGL will include ‘GI Ace’ and 780mPa […]
A recovery in non-residential construction is happening said research analyst Timna Tanners, in a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but the upturn for the non-residential cycle has taken longer than expected and is “less pronounced” than usual. The last strong cycle for non-residential construction was in 2005-2007, supporting a booming housing market. The […]
Based strictly on our most recent flat rolled steel survey results, Steel Market Update is seeing modest improvements being reported in demand. As a group, our survey respondents have been becoming more optimistic as those reporting demand as in decline has shrunk from 17 percent in early December to 7 percent this past week. At […]
Steel analyst Charles Bradford of Bradford Research spoke at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference this past week. He presented a relatively upbeat analysis of the domestic steel industry. He began by referring to a recent McKinsey and Company report which basically said, “The steel industry has had it, it’s over. The industry doesn’t make […]
Friday’s report has been well publicized as disappointing at 113,000 jobs created especially following the December result at 76,000. Less well appreciated is that the January report made revisions to data on payrolls, the workweek and earnings going back to 2009. Revisions to this data, which is drawn from a survey of employers, showed 369,000 […]
Once a quarter the Federal Reserve surveys the senior loan officers of domestic banks and U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Questions cover changes in the standards and terms of the banks’ lending and the state of business and household demand for loans. The January survey preamble was as follows: “The January 2014 Senior […]
The futures market has traded in a tight range over the past few weeks as the lack of volatility in the spot market has provided little direction for futures traders. The physical market remains stable, albeit a touch softer, while the looming threat of increased imports has continues to cast a long shadow over the […]
The busheling market started to take shape this week as buyers and dealers came into the market, with early indications to be in the mills favor. Initial reports are for scrap in the Midwest to be down $30-40 / ton depending on grade and location. It seems that weather constraints have had a more negative […]
Residential building permit authorizations in Canada for December declined for the second month, falling 14.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 186,780 units from 216,608 units in November. According to data released by Statistics Canada, multi-family dwelling authorizations led the decline, dropping 21.3 percent while single family dwellings inched down 0.1 percent. Value […]
Steel buyers in the ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting an increase in new orders in the next three months. Of those surveyed, 46.7 percent are expecting business to improve in the early months of 2014, up from only 18.2 percent in December. Backlogs in the next three months are expected to increase said 33.3 […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose 10 points to 12.5, indicating acceleration in business activity and reaching its highest level since May 2012. Prices paid and prices received rose in double digits in January with prices paid soaring 21 points to 36.6 indicating higher input costs. The six month outlook is optimistic with orders up […]
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI) registered 51.3 percent in January. Although the index slid 5.2 percentage points from December, it is still an indicator of growth in the manufacturing sector. Most of the indices that make up the PMI fell in January. The new orders index took a significant dive of […]
US automotive sales were mixed in January with automakers blaming winter weather on slipping sales. January is typically a soft month for the industry and will likely not affect forecasts for 16-16.5 million light vehicle sales for 2014. Ford Motor Co. reported sales fell 7.1 percent year-over-year to 155,644 vehicles. General Motors sales plunge 12 […]
The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 52.9 in January, almost unchanged from December’s high of 53.0 and signaling the fourteenth straight month of expansion. Production and new orders continued upward which helped increase employment levels. New export business slowed in January. Sharp discrepancies in growth were seen between developed and emerging markets. The UK, Japan […]
During the month of January Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. Benchmark hot rolled prices averaged $673 per ton ($33.65/cwt) according to the Steel Market Update index. CRU posted their monthly average at $676 per ton ($33.80/cwt). You can find the balance of our weekly and monthly averages […]
A State Department report on The Keystone XL Pipeline concludes that the project will have no significant impact on green house emissions that could affect the climate. The report opens the way for approval by President Obama to allow the pipeline construction to proceed. Approval is required because the proposed pipeline will cross the U.S. […]
The Chicago PMI slipped 1.2 points to 59.6 in January from a revised 60.8 in December. The index, formally known as the Chicago Business Barometer, fell for the third consecutive month but was still firmly above the 50.0 mark that indicates expansion. Employment weakened in January to a reading of 49.2, slipping into contraction for […]
The following HRC futures article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and the instructor of our new Managing Price Risk 2 – Strategies & Execution workshop. Well the S+P 500 took a turn down starting Thursday and Friday of last week, dropping from 1850 down to a 1770 low yesterday. We have […]
The headline number for Q4 was that GDP expanded by 3.2 percent from Q3, (Q/Q) which was down from the 4.1 percent expansion of Q3 over Q2. A better measure is that 2013 as a whole expanded by 2.74 percent which was the third straight quarter of expansion on a year-over-year basis. This is the […]
Both the expectations and the view of the present situation improved in the mind of consumers in January according to the latest Conference Board analysis. We thought it would be interesting to take a longer term view this month because our past analyses have been somewhat overshadowed by the surging confidence of the late 1990s. […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed continued growth in a report released this week. The November 2013, 10-City and 20-City composites increased by 13.8 percent and 13.7 percent year-over-year, respectively. The month-to-month indices decline 1.0 percent in November, the first decrease since November 2012. Nine out of 20 cities in the survey recorded positive returns, […]
Durable goods orders declined in December as did the three month moving average. Not a cause for concern at this point because even the 3MA of this indicator tends to be quite erratic (Figure 1). The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA declined from 7.9 percent in November to 5.1 percent in December. […]
The Eurozone is expected to have mild yet fragile growth throughout 2014 according to the EUROFER Q1-2014 Economic and Steel Market Outlook compiled by the EUROFER Economic Committee (EC). Indicators are pointing towards increased growth for industrial production, an important component for carbon flat rolled steel production in Europe. GDP has been edging up since […]
The market has taken a decidedly bearish tone this week as many feel the first cracks in the physical market are starting to appear. While prices have come off around $5 down the forward curve, the weight is strongly on the offer side, with few buyers present. The threat of imports and decreasing raw material […]