Category: Region

SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics earlier this week, including market prices and demand, tariffs and reshoring, inventories and imports, and evolving market trends.

Steel buyers said Nucor’s price decrease was a public acknowledgement of what most of the market had already known - that sheet prices were moving lower in a more significant way. The question now is whether mills and service centers will manage the decline or whether prices might fall rapidly, they said.

We’ve talked about tariffs ad nauseam for much of the year. And I’m afraid this topic isn’t going away anytime soon. There’s a feeling that the tariff “can” will just be kicked down the road again and again, and again.

With so much happening in the news cycle, we want to make it easier. Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

Oil and gas drilling activity eased in both the US and Canada this week, according to Baker Hughes. US rig counts remain near multi-year lows, and Canadian activity continues its seasonal slowdown.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both improved this week, reversing the decline seen two weeks ago.

Sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. This week we saw little change from mid-April levels, with just one product (Galvalume) showing any significant movement.

Nearly two thirds of the steel buyers who responded to this week’s SMU survey say domestic mills are negotiable on spot prices. This increasing flexibility marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months.

The steelmaker now expects the new steel slab mill in Pesquería will begin operations by Q4’26.

The Chicago Business Barometer declined in April, reversing March’s gains, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

PMA’s April report shows that only 16% of surveyed manufacturers anticipate an increase in economic activity in the next three months (down from 23% in March)

Most sheet and plate steel prices declined yet again this week, with four of SMU’s five indices moving lower.

It's just the latest change for US trade policy

United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.

Oil and gas drilling activity was mixed this week, according to Baker Hughes. US rig counts expanded for a second straight week, while Canadian activity continued its seasonal slowdown of eight consecutive weeks.

GrafTech International reported a wider net loss in the first quarter amid “global economic uncertainty” and “fluid” global trade policies.

Container shipping lines have sharply increased blank sailings on Transpacific routes in response to escalating trade tensions between the US and China.

The CME Midwest HRC futures market’s response to Trump’s election and subsequent comments about blanket 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was surprisingly counterintuitive.

Steel Dynamics' top exec thinks Trump’s tariff policies, as well as the results from the recent CORE case, will prove advantageous to the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker and aluminum company.

Architecture firms said billings continued to decline in March, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

After a hard drop in December — the worst since July 2021 — assembly numbers have climbed three months in a row. Sentiment remains tempered, though.

Manufacturing was mixed, but two-thirds of districts said activity was little changed or had declined.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events.

SDI earnings slip in first quarter year over year, but are up sequentially.

SMU’s flat-rolled steel prices were flat or lower as tariff-related uncertainty continued to drag on the market.

The company cited uncertainty about freight rates and demand, regulatory changes and the impact of tariffs.

US domestic sheet price gains have begun to slow as previously pulled-forward demand has led to a decline in orders.

The market appears to be pausing after a turbulent run. But tension remains just beneath the surface. With net long positioning still elevated, sentiment-driven selling could quickly reignite volatility. Still, supply constraints and limited imports are laying the groundwork for a resilient physical market. This moment of calm feels more like a crossroads than a conclusion.

Meanwhile, an increasing number think it's too early to say whether the penalties are going to bring more manufacturing to the US.