Category: Region

Section 232 tariffs are expected to go into effect March 12.

The penalties are expected to be reinstated on Wednesday, March 12. 

The administration’s trade rollercoaster is moving at record speeds, running along the rails of innovation and expansion. But it can be confusing and difficult to keep up with. US manufacturers that follow these developments closely could benefit from the ride. Companies that miss new updates, or fail to accurately interpret their duty liability, could be left feeling queasy. Some rollercoasters are not for the faint of heart, and this one is a bit like Space Mountain. We are all riding without much ability to see the next turn or drop.

Domestic shredded scrap has experienced a renaissance in pricing since January. And that increase had caused traditional exporters to ship their material to domestic users instead of overseas. But with recent changes, this cycle may end with the resurgence of export demand and continued foreign exchange fluctuations.

Imposing country-of-origin duties plus the upwardly revised Section 232 duties would create an untenable value for Midwest P1020. Modeling the extreme outcome of 25% country-of-origin tariffs plus 25% Section 232 tariffs could put Midwest physical premiums as high as $0.65 per pound. No, that is not a typo: $0.65 per pound! Primary aluminum supply chains would rotate from importing Canadian aluminum to importing it from India, the Middle East, or other very distant origins. That is worrisome for manufacturers.

Steel imports ended 2024 on a low note, with November trade falling to a one-year low and December seeing a modest 3% recovery. Then as the new year began, import volumes spiked.

SMU interviews JSW USA CEO Robert Simon.

"We urge you to resist any requests for exceptions or exclusions and to continue standing strong on behalf of American steel," the companies wrote.

US rig counts remain slightly above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity is experiencing a seasonal decline from a recent seven-year high.

The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both declined this week but remain strong. This indicates buyers are still optimistic about their companies' ability for success.

An inventory valuation of the assets of Altos Hornos de Mexico SA (AHMSA) has been completed. Local reports suggest an auction for the assets of the bankrupt steel company could come as soon as the end of this month.

Wonder what the fallout from all the Trump tariffs might be? A manufacturing renaissance? A post-WWII order in ashes? Or something a little more down the middle? Then register for our next Community Chat on Thursday, March 13 at 11 am ET. Yes, you read that correctly, SMU is shattering precedent by holding a Community Chat on a day that is not Wednesday. Our featured speaker will be Alan Price, a leading trade attorney at Wiley and someone whose columns you read regularly in SMU.

Before we get whipsawed by the current moment, it’s important to reflect on optimism. Whatever happens, consumers are going to need steel.

Headline risk has returned to the ferrous complex, with both hot-rolled coil (HRC) and busheling ferrous scrap (BCH) markets surging in response to fresh trade restrictions.

The situation on ferrous scrap has cleared up with the pause of the implementation of Canadian and Mexican blanket tariffs.

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported longer lead times this week on all of the sheet and plate products SMU tracks.

Facing an uncertain tariff trade war, Algoma Steel took action this week, halting steel shipments to the US, laying off employees, and prepping for an unknown future, according to local media reports.

Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of districts. However, manufacturers expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes between late January and February.

The majority of the steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that domestic mills are not open to negotiating prices on new orders this week.

The latest on the trade war

Mexico has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolled steel from China and Vietnam.

On 4 March, new 25% blanket tariffs across all products exported to the USA from Canada and Mexico are now in effect. The only exception is Canadian energy products, which will be assessed a 10% tariff.

April 2 is when reciprocal tariffs are expected to kick in.

Remember infrastructure week in Trump 1.0? It became a running joke. Because it was almost always derailed by whatever the scandal of the day was. In Trump 2.0, we've got tariff week. And unlike infrastructure week, tariff week is no joke.

Steel prices climbed across the board this week, with every steel product tracked by SMU rising to multi-month highs.

Don't forget that Trump's reinstatement of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports is slated for Wednesday, March 12.

“It is completely shocking for the United States to treat a long-time and fair trading partner in this manner,” the Canadian Steel Producers Association said.

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers slammed the use of "broad and indiscriminate" penalties.

Construction spending edged down slightly in January, slipping for the first time in four months. The US Census Bureau estimated spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196 billion in January, down 0.2% from December’s downward revised rate. The January figure is 3.3% higher than a year ago. January’s result, despite the slight erosion, […]