The spread between world hot rolled export pricing and that of the domestic average here in the United States is getting smaller based on our analysis of steel pricing data from this week. As the spread shrinks, the competitiveness of imported steel into the United States is reduced. Over time, if the trend continues, the […]
Last month we began to report on domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to be able to compare side by side demand and the degree to which imports have absorbed that demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by […]
The Q1 2015 February Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on February 2nd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 73 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 257,000 jobs were added in January. As we were analyzing this date we noticed massive historical revisions and had to go back to January 2000 (15 years!) before were confident we had caught them all. In the 12 months of 2014, job creation […]
The International Longshore and Warehouse Union and Pacific Maritime Association are closing the gap on negotiation demands. The latest offer by the PMA includes higher wages, continuation of a fully paid health care package and jurisdiction over maintenance and repair of truck chassis. The ILWU said a contract agreement is “extremely close” and the few […]
Dan DiMicco continues to make economic and political waves with his newest book, American Made: Why Making Things Will Return Us to Greatness. In his book, the outspoken former Nucor CEO and chairman tells how restoring American manufacturing to greatness will make America strong. Publisher St. Martin’s Press, says that DiMicco, with his usual blunt […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their January report on February 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January. The three month moving average has declined for […]
The United States Senate passed the Keystone XL oil pipeline bill by a vote of 62-36 on Thursday, Jan. 29. Nine Democrats joined the Republican-controlled Senate in supporting the bill. The House is expected to vote on the Senate version of the bill early next week. The Keystone XL legislation includes two energy-efficiency programs that […]
Global manufacturing continues to grow steadily with expansion in production and new orders in January. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose slightly last month to 51.7 from 51.5 in December. “The PMI turned higher in January, including moderate gains in the indexes of output and new orders,” commented David Hensley, Director of Global Economics […]
Barge activity on the lower Mississippi remains strong. Winter weather has hindered freight movement in a few northern regions and barge availability is tight in some areas, according to the latest MID-SHIP Report. Northbound barges are showing strong steel and salt cargoes. Stevedores have been working vessels as they arrive in New Orleans and elsewhere […]
The Chicago Business Barometer rose 0.6 points in January to 59.4 from a revised reading of 58.8 in December. The increased manufacturing activity follows two consecutive months of declines. The index showed a modest increase in a new orders, order backlogs and production, driving employment to a 14-month high. Inflationary pressures eased for the fourth […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are reasonably close with the Feds reporting total job creation in 2014 of 2,968,000 and the states reporting 2,664,000. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the history of Federal and State totals since […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the 4th Q disappointed economic pundits by coming in at 2.64 percent after increasing by almost 5.0 percent in Q3. GDP is measured and reported in […]
The spread between world hot rolled export pricing and that of the domestic average here in the United States is shrinking based on our analysis of steel pricing data from this week. As the spread shrinks, the competitiveness of imported steel into the United States is reduced. Over time, if the trend continues, the domestic […]
The fall in hot rolled futures prices seems to have slowed with the CRU down only $6/ton this week compared to an $18/ton drop the week prior. The second half of the year seems to have stabilized with trades being done at $570-575/ton for Q3 and Q4. The near term remains softer with bids retreating […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of December 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in December were 86,850,000 metric tons, an increase of 28.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 18.4 percent […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose strongly in January and the December results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 93.1 to 102.9, the view of the present situation rose from 99.9 to 102.6 as expectations rose from 88.5 to 96.4. This was the first time for the composite to […]
Turmoil continues in the global currency markets as the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing program last week, S&P downgraded Russian debt to junk status yesterday, the Greek national election on Sunday will result in a strong resistance to EU mandated austerity programs and the Swiss removed the currency cap vs the Euro last […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index shows economic growth slowed in […]
New orders for durable goods in December fell by 3.4 percent from November’s level to $230.5 billion, economists had expected a 0.5 percent gain. The three month moving average (3MMA) fell by 1.7 percent. The December result is a sharp deviation from the trend line that has existed since the recession, (Figure 1). The huge […]
Ship owners are reporting “staggering losses” says the January 15 MID-SHIP Report. “Dry cargo freight rates are basically in “free fall” because of very low bunker costs coupled with major over supply of ships thus forcing freight levels down to where they were in 1982-1986,” according to MID-SHIP. The Baltic Indices all registered declines in […]
Metalforming companies reported softening in shipments at the end of 2014 but are generally optimistic about prospects for 2015. The January 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report follows. CLEVELAND, OH—January 21, 2015—According to the January 2015 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, metalforming companies are optimistic about business conditions during the next […]
The following article on the futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC. Financial Markets: The S&P continues to perform, we are last 2054 on the March futures after testing our recent low at 1981 on the 16th. It looks like we are headed back to take out the highs at […]
Alaskan plans to upgrade the Prince Rupert ferry terminal have been scrapped after Canada moved to bar a Buy America requirement for contract bids on the project. The enactment of a ruling under the Foreign Extraterritorial Measures Act would have imposed fines of up to $1.5 million (US $1.2 million) and/or jail time for corporations […]
The three T’s, taxes, trade and transportation, are top issues the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) hoped would be addressed by President Obama in the State of the Union address earlier this week. AISI president and CEO Thomas Gibson expressed disappointment in the President’s address which had some “positive elements for the manufacturing sector” […]
The Architecture Billings Index rebounded to 52.2 in December from 50.9 in November, according to the American Institute of Architects. Demand for design services increased in ten of the twelve months of 2014. The new projects inquiry index dropped slightly to 58.2 from 58.8 in the previous month while design contracts were at 49.9 after […]
“A perfect storm of congestion” is how one official referred to conditions at West Coast ports. Sitting offshore on Friday were 18 vessels waiting to dock—normally there are zero, said Philip Sanfield, Director of Media Relations, Port of Los Angeles. The congestion at the port is due to several causes, said Sanfield. Larger cargo vessels […]
Gulf ports are not experiencing the horrific congestion issues seen in the West. Fleetwood Port Logistics, out of Houston and Savannah, that deals primarily in break bulk steel products, has seen little to no congestion at the primary discharge terminal of North City Docks, Port of Houston. There has been some congestion at the smaller […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.51 for December a decline of 0.1 percent from November. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 106.13 which was the highest value ever and the seventh straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The Cass Freight Index report showed a 6.3 percent month-over-month drop in shipment volume in December, in line with seasonal expectations. The peak holiday shipping season is generally July to September, but Cass Information Systems says the peak in 2014 was earlier due to concerns related to the expiration of the ILWU labor contract at […]