The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 5.4 points to 60.8 in November, wiping out October’s sharp increase, and moving closer to September’s level of 60.5. Manufacturing growth continues but at a slower pace. New orders slid 11.7 points to 61.9 following a one year high in October. Overall, barring an unexpected December decline, orders should be […]
Durable goods orders in October rose by 0.4 percent from September to $243.8 billion but the three month moving average (3MMA) declined by 7.1 percent. The problem with the 3MMA was that the huge surge in July which was driven by civil aircraft fell out of the calculation. The October result is close to the […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board declined in November and the October results were revised downwards. The composite fell from 94.1 to 88.7, the view of the present situation declined from 94.4 to 91.3 as expectations fell from 93.8 to 87.0. The three month moving averages (3MMA) also declined. The 3MMA […]
Mexican steel producer Altos Homos de Mexico SA (AHMSA) reported steel shipments of 361,939 tonnes (398,962 tons) in October. Shipments reached a new high due to increased production from expansion at Monclova. Annual production capacity has been boosted to 5.5 million tons from 4.75 million tons (6.06 million tons and 5.23 million tons, respectively). The […]
Today’s hot rolled, ferrous scrap and iron ore futures article comes to us from Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and the instructor for Steel Market Update’s Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Along with HRC, iron ore and BUS trading Andre also discusses the S&P 500, copper and crude […]
Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area took a huge jump in November. The headline Index for the Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook survey gained more than 20 points, rising from 20.7 in October to 40.8 in November. The surge is surprising given economists expected a drop in the index to 18.5. The dramatic upswing was met […]
Industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilization, both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP Index was reported as 104.86 for October a decline of 0.11 percent from September. This is another example where the individual months result can be misleading. The three month moving average (3MMA) was […]
The latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) slipped to 53.7 in October from 55.2 in September but shows continued strength in multi-family residential construction as well as growth for institutional construction projects. Demand for architectural design services was highest in the South and contracted sharply in the Northeast. The new projects inquiry index was 62.7, following a […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. The latest release on Tuesday reported October results. We run this analysis every three months to give readers an opportunity to become aware of any changes in the competitive position of steel against […]
Steel buyers in the October ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to remain unchanged for the next six months. When asked about the trend for sales and production during the six month period, seventy-five percent responded “the same.” A solid 91.7 percent of steel buyers said the trend for incoming orders will […]
Manufacturing activity in New York expanded at a faster pace in November, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Index, but missed analyst expectations. The Index rebounded to 10.2 from 6.17 in October but failed to reach the forecast reading of 12. The October and November readings are significantly lower than the May through September average […]
The following article on the hot rolled futures market comes to SMU from contributing writer Bradley Clark, Director of Steel Trading for Kataman Metals. Over the past couple of weeks the HRC futures market has traded within a narrow range reflecting mixed sentiment among market participants. There seems to be a divergence of opinion regarding […]
The following is a “hypothetical” calculation of the spread between world hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA) hot rolled prices. SMU compares the world hot rolled export price with hypothetical adders for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. This is then compared to the spot (FOB Mill) domestic hot rolled price using the SMU Hot […]
Barge volumes continue to be high on the US river system although rates have softened slightly, according to the latest MID-SHIP Report. Grain shipments this year are at the highest level since 2010 and are loading 45-50 seaborne vessels each week in the Gulf. As of the beginning of November, 83 percent of the soybean […]
WASHINGTON, DC –The Board of Directors of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) today elected three new members to its Board of Directors. Lourenco Goncalves, Chairman, President and CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.; Roger K. Newport, Senior Vice President, Finance and CFO of AK Steel Corporation; and Conrad J. Winkler, President and CEO […]
Congestion at California ports has prompted West Coast trucking associations to craft a petition to Federal Motor Carrier Safety Association for temporary flexibility in the hours of service rules to alleviate problems. The American Trucking Association (ATA), California Trucking Association and Southern California Harbor Trucking Association want waiting time to not be counted as on-duty […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 214,000 jobs were added in October, September and August were revised up by 8,000 and 23,000 respectively. The three month moving average, (3MMA) has declined for four straight months but this job recovery is stronger than was the case in the mid-2000s, (Figure […]
Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
Freight shipments, especially imports, are on the climb as the nation looks toward an economically stronger holiday season. The Cass Freight Index, which follows freight expenditures and shipment volumes, showed shipments increased in October by 3.3 percent year over year but fell 0.9 percent on a monthly basis. The slide, says Cass Information Systems, is […]
Occasionally we publish a piece on the state of the Eurozone because we regard the inevitable future transformation (disintegration) of this region to be of immense significance to the US steel industry. The following was written by Ambrose Evans Pritchard and published in the UK Daily Telegraph on Monday November 10th. Mario Draghi’s Efforts to […]
If we start with the premise that the consumer is almost 70 percent of GDP and that steel consumption is closely correlated with GDP, then consumer behavior and, in particular, debt is very relevant to our future businesses. Consumer spending is driven by income and both the perception of current debt and willingness to take […]
In the first nine months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 11,586,000 tonnes, down by 19.4 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of September exports were 1,163,489 tonnes, this was the second lowest month of the year following August which was the highest month. That’s why, in most cases, SMU uses […]
The Association of American Railroads reported 305,389 carloads for the week ending Nov 1, 2014, up 4.3 percent year over. Intermodal volume increased 5.9 percent y/y to 279,819 units for the highest volume ever. “America’s railroads are moving an enormous amount of freight today,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “In the first […]
Ternium reported earnings for the 3rd quarter 2014 this week. Ternium is a large steel producer in Mexico, which accounts for 60 percent of the company’s shipments, as well as Argentina which accounts for 24 percent. Ternium also owns a conversion mill in the United States which produces galvanized and Galvalume products along with prepainted […]
Andre Marshall, well known commodity futures trader, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and instructor for our Managing Price Risk I and II workshops has written today’s HRC futures article. Today he comments on the financial markets, steel, iron ore and ferrous scrap markets. Financial Markets: All time highs again in the stock markets. We are […]
The trucking industry’s top concerns were recently highlighted in an October 2014 survey by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI). The ATRI report was based on the responses of 1,444 industry drivers, carriers and suppliers. Results show that Hours of Service (HOS) followed by Driver Shortage and Compliance, and Safety and Accountability (CSA) remain the […]
The October Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices was released on November 3rd. This survey addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households on a quarterly basis and is based on the responses from 76 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd and the report surprised analysts on the upside. The October purchasing managers index, PMI registered 59.0 up from the 56.6 reading in September and equal to the August result. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the seventeenth straight month in which […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their October report on November 2nd and the report surprised analysts on the upside. The October purchasing managers index, PMI registered 59.0 up from the 56.6 reading in September and equal to the August result. Any number >50 indicates expansion and this was the seventeenth straight month in which […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of September 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in September were 84,695,000 metric tons, an increase of 13.1 percent from the previous month and an increase of 13.6 percent […]