Category: Region

The problem is that the situation in Washington is so fluid that no one really knows what to expect

The ferrous scrap market in the US and Canada is trying to find its way through difficulties that could well determine its direction over the next several months.

While American steelmakers welcome the revival of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, other nations' steel industries are calling for retaliation against President Trump's unilateral action of upping the levies on trading allies and removing all product exemptions.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Josh Spoores, principal analyst at CRU, will be the featured speaker on the next SMU Community Chat webinar on Wednesday, Feb. 19, at 11 a.m. ET. The live webinar is free. A recording will be available for free to SMU members. You can register here.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rose to a record high in January, according to the latest data released by Dodge Construction Network.

US steel prices set to jump after President Trump levies new tariffs.

A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.

Each of the steel product prices tracked by SMU saw significant increases this week. All four of our sheet price indices rose by $30-50 per short ton (st) on average. Plate prices popped $60/st compared to the week prior.

The February scrap market has settled higher on all grades SMU covers.

The new version of Section 232 goes into effect on 12:01 am ET on March 12, according to the executive order. The latest iteration of Section 232 removed quotas, exemptions, and other carve outs that had accumulated over years.

December 2024 marks the fourth month in a row that steel exports have declined, now at the lowest monthly rate recorded since December 2022.

President Donald Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imported to the US, according to Bloomberg. Trump said he would make an announcement about the matter on Monday. It was not clear when the tariffs might take effect.

An exciting first look at the results from SMU's first scrap survey.

Nippon Steel has agreed to “invest heavily in U.S. Steel as opposed to own it,” President Donald Trump said on Friday during a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. U.S. Steel is “a very important company” and was once “the greatest company in the world”. Of potential foreign ownership of the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker, Trump said, “the concept, psychologically, not good."

Following the one-year low recorded in November, steel imports rose by 3% in December to 2.14 million short tons (st) according to final US Commerce Department data. January could be the highest month for steel imports witnessed in nearly three years.

The day-to-day bustle of these announcements should not obscure what they signal for other potential tariff measures in the near term and a revamped trade and economic policy in the long term. 

The company’s plants had been shut since just before Christmas when the company locked out union workers during negotiations.

If 2021 and 2022 was the party, 2024 is the morning after, one panelist said.

"Personally, I find it very hard to believe that we would be in a trade war with Mexico and Canada for more than a few months at any given time. I don't know how Mexico and Canada could survive that. That's a recession for them. That's a few points off GDP for us - my opinion.”

Facing weak demand and an “unsustainably low” pricing environment, GrafTech International posted another quarterly loss to close out 2024.

US rig counts remain marginally above multi-year lows. The drop in Canadian activity comes just one week after reaching a near seven-year high.

Targets include coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, and other commodities

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanners put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

AM/NS Calvert has begun commissioning its new electric-arc furnace, with plans to reach its full annual run rate of 1.65 million short tons a year from now.

Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices moved up again in the US this week, while tags abroad were largely flat. The result: the margin US hot band holds over imports on a landed basis widened further.

While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.

Steel mill negotiation rates have declined in each of our last two surveys; this week’s rate is the lowest recorded since March 2024.

Since the publication of our last market update on Dec. 10, several notable developments have shaped the landscape