Auto sales were expected to be low in April and predictions were correct. Edmunds estimates U.S. sales fell 36.6 percent from March and 52.5 percent compared to April 2019. “April auto sales took the biggest hit we’ve seen in decades,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of Insights. “These bleak figures aren’t just because consumers […]
I am back from my “stay-cation.” Is it just me or is time standing still? I don’t know about your neighborhood, but the landscaping in mine has improved over the past 45 days. I understand there are a lot of home projects ongoing. From a steel executive email to me earlier today, “I told a […]
Having lived through the difficult month of April, steel buyers remain pessimistic about current business conditions, but more hopeful about the future. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their company’s current prospects for success, as well as their chances for success three to six months in the future. The Current Sentiment reading […]
“Vacation: An extended period of recreating, especially one spent away from home or traveling.” Last week I took “vacation” time off, and unlike the definition above I did little recreating, rarely strayed from home, and did no traveling. How restful is that? The big news from last week was an apparent “firming” of steel prices. […]
Today, Steel Market Update adjusted our flat rolled Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. We are of the opinion, based on intelligence we are gleaning from steel buyers, that steel prices are in transition. We no longer believe prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume will decline over the next 30 days. However, a […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steels declined sharply in April. Lead times ranged from a half-week to a full week shorter at the end of the month than they did at the beginning, depending on the product, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire. Lead times for steel […]
On Monday of this week, Steel Market Update began canvassing the markets as we conducted one of our flat rolled and plate steel market trends suveys. The vast majority of the responses were received early in the week and the results of those responses are presented below. However, SMU continued to speak directly to both […]
It was one of those days. Publishing a newsletter is like giving birth three times a week anyway, but the labor pains for the SMU staff were particularly acute today. John Packard was ostensibly taking the day off, but that did not stop him from writing a big story and sending untold emails. Keeping abreast […]
COVID-19-related shutdowns and project cancellations caused construction employment in March to decline in 99 out of 348 metro areas year-over-year, said the Associated General Contractors of America in an analysis of government data. In an April 20-23 survey conducted by AGC, 68 percent of construction firms reported projects canceled or delayed in the past two […]
Home prices continued to increase in February before the coronavirus shutdowns, gaining 4.2 percent annually, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. The 20-city composite grew 0.4 points for a 3.5 percent year-over-year gain. Prices were strongest in the West and Southeast and comparatively weaker in the Midwest […]
John Packard is taking some time off. May could be a pivotal month for the U.S. economy and the steel industry. No reasonable person believes we will have the virus crisis behind us, but we should at least have more clarity on what lies ahead. States, to one degree or another, are loosening their restrictions […]
General Motors and Fiat Chrysler have proposed reopening in early May, but United Autoworkers are pushing back due to safety concerns. “At this point in time, the UAW does not believe the scientific data is conclusive that it is safe to have our members back in the workplace,” said UAW President Rory Gamble in an […]
Automotive assemblies in North America nosedived in March as vehicle manufacturers shut down their plants to protect their employees from the spread of the coronavirus. Most plants ceased operations in mid-March, so the data does not reflect a full month of shutdowns, thus the effect may be even more pronounced in April. Data from LMC […]
John Packard is taking some time off… We hope you are benefiting from our series of SMU Community Chats. The idea is to help us all feel connected by getting together once a week for a short visit with an industry expert—and in a way with each other. It’s a chance to learn something valuable […]
Companies are being affected to varying degrees by the coronavirus depending on their market and geography, so it’s no surprise their opinions range widely on how long it will take business to return to pre-COVID levels. Some hope for activity to rebound as soon as this summer, while others fear it won’t be until next […]
Sales of new and existing homes both fell during March as the COVID-19 virus took hold of America. New home sales in March plummeted 15.4 percent from February levels to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales were down 9.5 […]
A major supplier to Ford Motor Company was devastated by a tornado on April 13, potentially adding to the challenges Ford will face in resuming production when the coronavirus restrictions are lifted. The BorgWarner plant in Seneca, S.C., was heavily damaged as winds ripped off the roof and many of the walls, leaving the interior […]
The following are my opinions. You’ve got to be an optimist to be in the steel industry. I have made that statement often over the course of my steel career. When I first started in the steel business with Rolled Steel Corporation in Skokie, Ill., in 1977 I used to joke, “the only people who […]
Construction employment decreased in 20 states and the District of Columbia from February to March, held steady in six states and increased in 24 states, according to an analysis of new government data by the Associated General Contractors of America. During the 12 months ending in March, construction employment declined in only seven states and […]
“You don’t want to waste a good crisis” (also seen as, “Never waste a serious crisis”). “In the rush to return to normal, use this time to consider which parts of normal are worth rushing back to.” Dave Hollis Just about every business in North America, if not around the world, is dealing with the […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment remained in pessimistic territory in mid-April as steel demand was stifled by the government restrictions on commerce to control the spread of COVID-19. Future Buyers Sentiment was notably more optimistic, however, which suggests service center and manufacturing executives anticipate better days ahead. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their […]
Last week, Steel Market Update conducted an analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel markets as we reached out to more than 500 individuals uniquely qualified to provide insights into these markets. What we found is an almost universal picture of a steel economy in a tailspin. Through our steel survey, SMU has seen […]
Last week, Steel Market Update conducted an analysis of the flat rolled and plate steel markets as we reached out to more than 500 individuals uniquely qualified to provide insights into these markets. What we found is an almost universal picture of a steel economy in a tailspin. Through our steel survey, SMU has seen […]
If not for the pandemic, SMU would be calling the service centers as being at a point of capitulation. Our expectation would be for the steel mills to announce price increases in the near future. If not for the pandemic. We have seen both manufacturing companies and service centers reporting spot prices out of the […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate have continued to shorten despite the mills’ efforts so far to curtail production and match supply with demand. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill. Average lead times for […]
It’s a buyer’s market with many buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for federal and state officials to declare the coast is clear and open up the economy once again. Not surprisingly, steel mills are very willing to negotiate to secure orders in the current low-demand environment. More than nine out of 10 buyers responding […]
Housing starts plummeted 22.3 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,216,000, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Single-family starts declined 17.5 percent and multifamily starts of five units or more plunged 32 percent. “Single-family starts began an expected, virus-related decline in […]
Using International Trade Commission (USITC) data, Steel Market Update has taken the import tonnage of cold rolled sheet and broken it down into coil and leveled, into four thickness ranges, and identifies how much was full hard, annealed and high strength. This update examines the total cold rolled sheet and strip imports into the U.S. […]
The coronavirus is already changing my daily habits. I walk around with a small bottle of Purell (or similar) hand sanitizer in my pocket. I have a face mask in my car and I am no longer self-conscious about wearing it into a grocery store. Probably because everyone else is wearing a mask as well. […]
February heating and cooling equipment shipments totaled 1.52 million units, up 2.3 percent from the same month one year ago, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). As a three-month moving average, total heating and cooling shipments were down 0.1 percent, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Residential and commercial storage […]