I had dinner with trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz this evening (Sunday). We discussed his presentation which will begin at 3:30 PM in Salon E at the Atlanta Airport Gateway Hotel. During dinner we spoke about the history of the steel industry and how the United States, after World War II intentionally helped build those countries […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the sixth consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
Existing home sales lost momentum in July, falling for the first time since November 2015. The National Association of Realtors reports that sales were down 3.2 percent from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million. On a year over year basis sales fell 1.6 percent marking only the second time in the […]
I am in Atlanta and if you see me walking aimlessly about town on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with a glassy look in my eyes it is because the kickoff of our 6th Steel Summit Conference is on Monday. We are essentially sold out, every seat in the house should be filled. We have an […]
The following article is normally shared with just our Premium level members. Steel Market Update (SMU) has a proprietary product whereby we analyze the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) carbon flat rolled shipments and inventories at the end of each month. Based on our model, we come up with a number indicating whether service center […]
Light vehicle (LV) sales bounced back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.9 million units in July from 16.7 million in June (Figure 1). July was the best month since November last year. Autos rose from 6.8 to 7.1 million and light trucks rose from 9.9 to 10.8 million. The mix in July […]
New home sales rose 12.4 percent from June to July according to estimates released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000, 31.3 percent above the year ago level and at their highest level in almost nine […]
As I wander around the industry talking to buyers and sellers of steel I am always asking and listening for the signs of change. These are “warnings” to my ears and I heard one earlier today that needs to be pursued further and I think we will have the opportunity to do so at our […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our mid-August flat rolled steel market trends analysis. For those new to our newsletter, we invite approximately 600 people representing about 550 companies to participate in our bi-monthly questionnaire. Our normal response rate is 100 to 150 people. Last week’s mix was 44 percent service centers, 43 percent manufacturing […]
The following Steel Buyers Basics article was originally written by Mario Briccetti, CEO of Briccetti and Associates and an instructor for Steel Market Update (Steel 101 & Custom Training). If you would like to learn more on this subject Mr. Briccetti will be at our Steel Summit Conference on the 29th through the 31st of […]
I expect the next seven days will be quite hectic in my life and those of our SMU team as we make final preparations for the 2016 Steel Summit Conference. I will actually be traveling to Georgia on Wednesday and will work from there until the conference has concluded. We do have a few spots […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index Twice per month, Steel Market Update surveys the flat rolled steel industry. One of the proprietary products which is derived from that expansive survey is the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. Sentiment is defined as how buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful both in the […]
In our last issue of Steel Market Update we wrote about lead times shrinking as being one of the reasons why we adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator. We cited published lead times by NLMK USA and Nucor Berkeley as examples of the changes we were seeing and discussing with steel buyers. This week we conducted […]
Based on the results of our flat rolled steel market trends survey that Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted all week, steel mills are receptive to negotiate steel prices on some products and less so on others. We are seeing the mills being fairly aggressive on hot rolled price negotiations with 83 percent of our survey […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the fifth consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
We are 10 days away from the start of our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. This will be our 6th conference and it will be the best attended conference by a wide margin. When we began the planning process my most optimistic goal was to get 400 attendees. We had 280 attendees at our 5th […]
For the past nine weeks, Steel Market Update (SMU) has had our Price Momentum Indicator at Neutral. A neutral rating means the market is either in transition or does not have enough momentum to push steel prices in one direction or another. Earlier today SMU adjusted our indicator to “Lower” from Neutral which is a […]
Housing starts increased 2.1 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,211,000 from a revised June estimate of 1,186,000, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. The increase was the highest level since February. Starts were 5.6 percent above the July 2015 rate. Multi-family […]
I heard this evening that Turkish hot rolled for September shipment was recently booked at an average price of $25.50/cwt CIF, Duty Paid ($510 per ton). Latest offer on Mexican hot rolled $26.50/cwt ($530 per ton) and cold rolled at $31.50/cwt ($630 per ton). The hot rolled numbers make sense and are reasonable against domestic […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through June 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for June 2016 decreased 12.5 percent […]
Steel Market Update is celebrating our 8th Anniversary. People ask me how I can do what I do on a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis? After all, I have been doing this over the past 8 years when most people my age would be thinking of slowing down and planning for their retirement. I […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the fourth consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
On Wednesday morning I received a couple of emails regarding our newsletter that I would like to share with our readers: “Your newsletter is solid. Lots of real information and educated analysis. Great job. See you soon in Atlanta. Best, Lourenco Goncalves” Mr. Goncalves is the CEO of Cliffs Natural Resources and he and I […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, an indicator of nonresidential construction planning, edged ahead 0.5 percent in July to 134.7 after a revision in June to 134.1. The modest increase follows a surge of 10.9 percent the previous month and continues a fourth consecutive month of increases. Planning for institutional construction increased 0.7 percent in July and […]
I did trade emails with trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz regarding the International Trade Commission (ITC) commissioners. I wanted to know if the new president of the United States could make wholesale changes with the commissioners and change the balance of the rulings being made on steel trade cases and others. Mr. Leibowitz told us, “The […]
My opinion is that we will need to watch foreign hot rolled offers this week. There are a couple of countries (including Korea) that were scheduled to come out with new HR pricing this week. Will the final determination ruling by the US Department of Commerce have any impact on prices? We also will need […]
According to the results of our latest flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey, as steel prices flatten out and lead times begin to come back in, flat rolled steel buyers and sellers are slightly less enthusiastic about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing market environment as well as 3 to […]
Earlier this week we began our early August flat rolled steel market trends analysis. The process began with invitations going out to approximately 570 steel executives in the manufacturing, service center/wholesaler, trading company, steel mill and toll processing communities. The invitations are purposely heavily weighted toward manufacturing and service center/wholesalers as those two segments purchase […]
The following information was collected from our flat rolled steel market trends survey which we have been conducting since Monday of this week. Much of the collection information is similar to the Lead Times article above as this question is posed to manufacturing companies and distributors. What we are trying to discover is if there […]
June data for Construction Put in Place (CPIP) was released by the Department of Commerce on Monday August 1st. In June total construction slowed for the third consecutive month on a 3MMA (three month moving average) basis. All four sectors had negative momentum. These are non-residential buildings, residential buildings, infra-structure and other, which is a […]