Good evening from Naples, Florida (warm, sunny) where the Association of Steel Distributors is holding its Spring Meeting. I am looking forward to the business meeting portion and presentations which will be coming on Friday and Saturday. I will report on what I learn in Sunday evening’s edition of Steel Market Update. The sense or […]
Home prices continued to rise in January, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The 20-City Composite gained 5.4 percent in January, up slightly from a 5.3 percent increase in December. The 10-City Composite year over year over year gain was 5.1 percent. “Home prices continue to climb at more than twice the rate of […]
SMU still has a number of open spots available for our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop. The workshop will be held just outside of Toledo, Ohio as part of our program will be a tour of one of the most successful flat rolled mini-mills in the United States, the […]
Flat rolled steel pricing momentum is clearly on the side of the domestic steel mills. You have a number of the integrated mills essentially out of the spot markets and lead times are extended. Even hot rolled lead times are moving out despite weakness in the energy markets. SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to point […]
Sales of new single-family homes grew 2.0 percent from January to February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. The gain was due to increases in the West where sales were up 38.5 percent. Median national sales price in February was $301,400 and the average sales price $348,900. […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the 12th consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
US vehicle sales in February were the strongest for that month in 15 years with a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 17.5 million units, up from 16.4 million in February last year. Figure 1 shows auto and light truck sales since January 2006. Auto sales have been essentially flat for four full years as […]
As we head into the Good Friday and Easter weekend holiday we want to wish everyone an enjoyable time with family and friends. Steel Market Update will not publish a newsletter on Sunday so our next official publication will be on Tuesday evening of next week. Even so, that should not prevent you for communicating […]
Existing home sales took a surprising 7.1 percent plunge in February to an annualized rate of 5.08 million according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Higher prices and tightening supply were blamed for the apparent cooling of the housing market. Supply was at 4.4 months in February, well below the “normal market” of […]
Steel mills are still scrounging for ferrous scrap with little luck. We are hearing from our scrap sources that prices could be up as much as $30 per ton and we have even heard some numbers higher than $30. The net result will be more pressure on steel and steel prices as the mills scramble […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our second flat rolled steel market trends analysis for the month of March. We commit four days to canvass buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel. Then we put the vast majority (but not all) of the results into a Power Point presentation which we share with our Premium […]
Steel Mill lead times are important keys to watch. As lead times extend buyers have to place more orders and spend more time balancing their inventories in order to satisfy their customers. Longer lead times also support domestic steel mill pricing and create opportunities for steel mills to raise steel prices (which is exactly what […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel report to Steel Market Update whether the domestic steel mills are willing to negotiate pricing on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels. The less willing the mills are to negotiate prices the stronger the market (and potentially the higher prices go from here). Hot rolled negotiations […]
Last month we forecast that February carbon flat rolled shipments would be down 5 percent year over year and that the steel receipts would be 10 percent lower than their 3 year average. We projected total shipments at 2,151,000 tons and the MSCI reported shipments of 2,154,700 tons. We projected inventories would end the month […]
A quick reminder that our next Steel 101 workshop which will be held just outside of Toledo, Ohio on May 17-18th of this year, is about half full. We already have an excellent group of manufacturing companies, service centers and steel mills attending. On the afternoon of the first day we will tour the North […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to smile when asked about their company’s ability to be successful both in the current market environment as well as looking out into the future three to six months. The result has taken the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index higher and we are approaching record levels in […]
Housing starts jumped 5.2 percent in February led by an eight year high in single-family construction. After a slow start in January, the Commerce Department reports housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,178,000, up 5.2 percent from January’s revised rate of 1.12 million and 30.9 percent from February 2015. Single-family construction […]
Home sales in Canada increased 0.8 percent in February compared to January, bringing housing transactions to their highest level since 2007. Toronto, Okanagan Region and Fraser Valley led sales, offsetting declines in Edmonton, Greater Moncton and Montreal. The Canadian Real Estate Association reports actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity jumped 18.7 percent year over year. “Two […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the eleventh consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
OK, so it’s March Madness and most of our readers want to watch their favorite team or test their skills at nailing their bracket and bragging rights around the water cooler in the morning. For the steel industry March Madness is taking a different meaning. More price increase announcements, full order books and a win […]
The ruling regarding the preliminary determination of dumping of hot rolled steel out of Australia, Brazil, Turkey, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom was announced this evening. You will hear split opinions as to whether the ruling is a “win” or “loss” for the domestic steel mills. It is my opinion that this […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through January 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for January 2016 decreased 14.2 percent […]
We have added the 2016 Steel Summit Agenda to our website. We continue to tweak the program as we search for the best speakers and subjects that are key to those attending our conference at the end of August (August 29-31, 2016) in Atlanta. We have an exceptional agenda already with keynote speakers representing the […]
Mill lead times, especially on cold rolled and coated products, continue to be a concern as buyers navigate/negotiate pricing and deliveries on future orders. The longer the lead time the more steel that is needed in the pipeline at both manufacturing companies and distributors. The longer lead times provide ammunition to the domestic steel mills […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States was positive this week for the tenth consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo, a trailing indicator, is measured as a percentage and shows the relation of the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
SMU sources have advised us that there were two vessels of pig iron sold out of Brazil to the United States at $200 per metric ton NOLA. This represents a $12 per ton increase over last sales ($188 per metric ton). Shipment of the pig iron is anticipated for April/May out of Brazil. Fifteen years […]
The Dodge Momentum Index rose 0.5 percent in February to 126.1 from a revised reading of 125.5 in January, a third consecutive monthly increase. The index is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects and has been show to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Commercial planning […]
Ted Cruz said it best the other night while debating Donald Trump, “breathe, breathe, breathe….” While speaking to one of my longtime steel buying contacts we began discussing the mentality to this market as there are many “unknowns” such as exactly what the heck is going on in China. We were discussing the difference between […]
Steel mill lead times on all four flat rolled products have become more extended according to those who responded to our most recent flat rolled steel market analysis. As lead times extend, steel buyers have to place more orders in order to protect their inventories. The more orders placed, the better chance for the domestic […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel reported to Steel Market Update this past week that the domestic steel mills are less willing to negotiate steel prices. We believe this is due to strengthening order books, extending lead times, positive Sentiment and improving demand. The only product not following the rest of the market is […]