Category: US

The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both declined this week but remain strong. This indicates buyers are still optimistic about their companies' ability for success.

Headline risk has returned to the ferrous complex, with both hot-rolled coil (HRC) and busheling ferrous scrap (BCH) markets surging in response to fresh trade restrictions.

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported longer lead times this week on all of the sheet and plate products SMU tracks.

Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of districts. However, manufacturers expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes between late January and February.

The majority of the steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that domestic mills are not open to negotiating prices on new orders this week.

Steel prices climbed across the board this week, with every steel product tracked by SMU rising to multi-month highs.

Construction spending edged down slightly in January, slipping for the first time in four months. The US Census Bureau estimated spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196 billion in January, down 0.2% from December’s downward revised rate. The January figure is 3.3% higher than a year ago. January’s result, despite the slight erosion, […]

The Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3% in February. That’s 0.6 percentage points lower compared to the 50.9% recorded in January.

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to an eight-month high in February. Despite the recovery, the measure continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions, as it has for over a year.

Four weeks have passed since the last article from Rock Trading Advisors on January 30. The paint has dried, and Midwest HRC futures have exploded higher in response to President Trump’s declaration of impending 25% tariffs on all imported steel products. The rolling 2nd month CME Midwest HRC future erupted through the top end of its downtrend, one that dates back to the peak of the winter 2022 rally. It also broke out of its narrow range seen dating back to June of last year.

New orders gained 3.1%, reaching $286.0 billion, according to the US Census Bureau.

Market participants might disagree over how high flat-rolled steel price might go and for how long they might remain elevated. But there is near total agreement on one thing: Prices are up sharply again this week. The gains come on the heels of waves of mill price increases (for sheet and for plate), expectations that scrap prices will rise again in March, and the threat of tariffs looming over the market.

SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.

Another eventful week in the physical and financial steel markets is coming to a close. Most importantly, this week provided complete clarity that, after months of waiting for a catalyst, we are now definitively in the early stages of a meaningful rally. The 3rd month future (currently the April contract) rose more than 8% for […]

Architecture firms continued to report a sharp reduction in billings in January, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]

Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.

Sheet and plate prices surged higher this week on a wave of what some called “panic buying” following the Trump administration’s announcement of stricter Section 232 measures last week.

Business activity in New York state’s manufacturing sector recovered nicely in February after a sharp decline the previous month, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index rose 18 points to 5.7. This is a diffusion index, where a positive reading signifies […]

It’s been an event-filled month in US ferrous derivatives markets since my last column for SMU. There’s been no shortage of writings and musing about the ongoing steel and aluminum tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. And steel and scrap futures markets have responded accordingly. CME HRC futures prices have risen, and the curve has firmed. The February 2025 HRC futures contract, now in the pricing period, has added $47 per short ton (st) since its contact lows on Jan. 20 to settle at $767/st today.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rose to a record high in January, according to the latest data released by Dodge Construction Network.

Each of the steel product prices tracked by SMU saw significant increases this week. All four of our sheet price indices rose by $30-50 per short ton (st) on average. Plate prices popped $60/st compared to the week prior.

Targets include coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, and other commodities

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.

While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.

Steel mill negotiation rates have declined in each of our last two surveys; this week’s rate is the lowest recorded since March 2024.

Since the publication of our last market update on Dec. 10, several notable developments have shaped the landscape

SMU’s steel price indices rose across the board this week. Sheet prices increased as much as $35 per short ton (st) compared to last week, while our average plate price ticked up by$10/st.

Following more than two years of contraction, US manufacturing activity rebounded in January according to the Institute for Supply Management.