Category: US

Metalformers expressed increased optimism about business activity this month, according to the February 2024 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report.

The US already had strict regulations on air-quality standards for particulate matter, but they are going to get even tighter.

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reading from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek showed a slight uptick in January but continued to signal soft conditions. The index inched up from 45.4 in December to 46.2 in January. While the index has moved higher consecutively each month since October, it remains in contraction territory. […]

Over my years of observing the steel market, there's been a recurring belief that current market disruptions in either the physical spot market or steel futures are temporary anomalies, destined to fade, and that normalcy will soon return. However, the events of the first few weeks of 2024 served as a stark reminder that this expectation seldom materializes, and that the US steel market is still the most volatile steel market in the world.

Manufacturing activity in New York State continued to shrink this month, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

US housing starts fell for the second consecutive month in January, according to the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index was flat this week, while the Future Sentiment Index slipped, according to our most recent survey data.

It’s no secret that HRC futures have been particularly volatile over the past several years. The most recent instance was the outsized break in the March futures contract early this week. For companies procuring raw material in anticipation of higher prices or even to get ahead on future purchase orders from customers, understanding the relative price of that raw material versus the hot-rolled coil futures curve is important.

Mill lead times for flat-rolled steel were mostly stable over the past two weeks. With several mills slow to come out of outages and upgrades, cold rolled and coated lead times have been holding up better than hot rolled.

The percentage of sheet buyers finding mills willing to negotiate spot pricing rose or remained relatively flat on the products SMU surveys, while plate slumped, according to our most recent survey data.

After holding steady for most of January, the hot rolled (HR) index has started to gain some downward momentum. In the last 30 days, it has declined $89 per short ton (st) and is sitting just above $1,000/st.

Consumer confidence in the US rose in January and accelerated to a two-year high, The Conference Board reported. Results came amid slacking inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon start cutting interest rates. The headline Consumer Confidence Index rose to 114.8 in January from a downwardly revised 108.0 in December. The index, which […]

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index edged down this week, while the Future Sentiment Index remained flat, according to our most recent survey data.

Much has happened since we last met on Jan. 4. Cleveland-Cliffs announced a price increase on Jan. 3, lifting the futures market in the morning only for it to finish the day $20-$30 per short ton (st) below those morning highs. On Jan. 4, the futures curve was down another $10-$28/st. And in my column for SMU that evening, I asked a question: Would those aggressive sellers be met with a short-squeeze forcing them to cover, or had the market peaked with the negative price action to start the year the proverbial canary in the coal mine?

Steel mill lead times for sheet products saw substantial declines over the past two weeks, while production times for plate held steady during the month of January.

Steel buyers said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week on all products SMU surveys, according to our most recent survey data.

Rising geopolitical tensions may threaten stability, while other factors like a climbing stock market and growing government investment point to one thing in the economy: it’s complicated. “It’s an interesting contradiction out there,” said Dr. Walter Kemmsies, managing partner of The Kemmsies Group, at the Tampa Steel Conference this week. In his keynote speech on […]

What a difference a few weeks make…. As this is our first column after the new year, it is quite interesting to observe how different the steel world looks at the end of January vs. the end of December. 

US housing starts moved lower in December, even as single-family production topped the million mark for the second straight month, according to the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.

Metalformers remain positive about business prospects for the first quarter of 2024, boosted by reported growth in January.

The LME three-month price was broadly stable on the morning of Jan. 19 and was last seen trading at $2,170 per metric ton (mt). The $2,200/mt level is now acting as a resistance it seems, but the break of the previous support level has not inspired a sell-off, at least not for now.  

While there was little change in economic activity since its last update, the Federal Reserve reported declines in manufacturing in nearly all districts in its January Beige Book update.

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index jumped this week, while the Future Sentiment Index remained flat, according to our most recent survey data.

Much discussion has centered on HRC futures and option liquidity. The perceived lack of liquidity is often used as a reason for not engaging in risk management, a profound folly in our opinion. Looking back over the last decade, the futures market has seen increased volume. The HRC futures volume in 2023 was 617% of 2013 numbers.

New York state saw manufacturing shrink in January, reaching its lowest reading since the depths of the pandemic in early 2020, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The slipping lead times for flat-rolled steel were not just due to the holiday slowdown, it seems, as production times for four out of five products contracted again this week.

Domestic buyers of steel sheet said mills were much more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, according to our most recent survey data.

The LME three-month price was moving down again on the morning of Jan. 12 and was last seen trading at $2,215 per metric ton (mt). We expect a test of the $2,200/mt support to be imminent. A break would be bearish as it could mean a complete reversal of the gains seen in December, although we still estimate that as being unlikely.

After a holiday period that saw HR futures volumes somewhat muted in December, the first week of January brought with it increased interest reflected in higher volumes.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) gained traction in December thanks to improved commercial conditions, according to the latest Dodge Construction Network (DCN) data.