SMU Data and Models

SMU survey: Buyers find mills less willing to negotiate pricing

Written by Brett Linton

August 1, 2024

Steel buyers of sheet products say mills are still flexible on spot pricing this week, though less so than two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data. Alternatively, buyers of plate products responded that mills are more willing to talk price, with plate negotiation rates rising to an eight-month high.

SMU polls hundreds of service center and manufacturer buyers every other week asking if domestic mills are open to negotiation on new spot order prices. This week, four out of every five buyers we surveyed reported that mills are open to negotiating lower prices (Figure 1). This 80% rate has slightly eased over the last four weeks, having reached a multi-year high of 92% in early-July.

Figure 2 below shows negotiation rates by product. The rate for hot-rolled coil declined to 77% this week, now at levels not seen since April. Cold rolled buyers reported a negotiation rate of 79%, little changed from two weeks prior but overall down in comparison to recent months. Mill willingness to negotiate on galvanized products slipped to 77%, having topped out at a nine-month high of 100% in mid-July. The only sheet product with an increasing negotiation rate was Galvalume, increasing from 75% two weeks ago to 89% in late-July. Willingness to negotiate on plate products jumped from 79% in mid-July to 90% this week. This is the highest rate recorded since last November.

Here’s what some survey respondents had to say:

“Mills are trying to push pricing up prior to 2025 negotiations.”

“[Mill] has closed their books to re-evaluate, waiting on new September numbers. People are waiting to see what others do first, I believe.”

“Depending on location, yes (, willing to negotiate).”

“Yes, (willing to negotiate) but buyers power is losing near-term steam.”

Note: SMU surveys active steel buyers every other week to gauge their steel suppliers’ willingness to negotiate new order prices. The results reflect current steel demand and changing spot pricing trends. Visit our website to see an interactive history of our steel mill negotiations data.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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