HR futures: Forward premiums remain substantial. Are they substantial enough?

Another month for hot-rolled (HR) coil, and another disappointing one for the bulls. They are still holding onto hope that the bottom is here and still pointing to an imminent uptick in HR prices.

As the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. So the truth is that if the market kept pricing in a premium long enough, eventually it would be right – and we would indeed see a spot price uptick. So far however, the upside momentum has been extremely muted.