By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor After years in which inflation has been low in major economies, financial markets are becoming increasingly concerned about high future inflation. In this Special Feature, we examine a number of factors which could be inflationary over the […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker Ford announced in February that it would be all electric in Europe by 2030. This comes on the heels of General Motors stopping production of internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035. These decisions underscore the shifting landscape in key aluminum applications and use within automotive. Die-castings have always been […]
By CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini and Multi-Commodity Analyst Zanna Aleksahhina, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor There is a global semiconductor shortage. It was ignited by strong demand for consumer electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic and it is now threatening auto production around the world. We expect it to reduce global vehicle output by around […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker In January 2016, Bitcoin was trading at 450 to the U.S. dollar. Recent prices hit over 58,000 and are now trading around 48,000. There are investment advisors suggesting cryptocurrencies should be part of investors’ portfolios. It appears that Bitcoin and its imitators are going mainstream. While this fascination with […]
By CRU Prices Analyst George Pearson, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Chinese sheet prices reached a new high this week after a government policy notice on March 2 notifying of emissions production cuts in Tangshan province in late-February to late-March. We expect the impact of this announcement to be lower than the initial price rise suggests. In other regions, sheet prices globally have continued to rise, […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Economist Yingrui Wang On March 5, the Chinese government announced its macroeconomic targets for 2021 and beyond. It reaffirmed our broad view that China is keen to withdraw policy support gradually and deliver a steady economic slowdown over the next five years. What we learned is that […]
By CRU Advisor Greg Wittbecker Buyers of aluminum have been spoiled since the global financial crisis by persistent surpluses and relatively benign price action. That is changing. Inventories are Depleting and What Remains is in Strong Hands Global inventories expressed in days of global consumption stood at 78 days ending 2020. This compares to 114 […]
By CRU Analysis Advisor Greg Wittbecker Environmental, social and governance (ESG) is now core to most major corporations. Companies that don’t put strong emphasis on this do so at their peril. Many companies are using ESG as an opportunity to create competitive advantage. These advantages are coming through several approaches. Sustainable Production Sustainability can be […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The grounding of the MV Ever Given in the Suez Canal has multiple repercussions on the global maritime supply chain, but it is especially acute for the aluminum market. Gulf Region Production is Important The Gulf Region in terms of aluminum production comprises Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis China has staked out ambitious goals to decarbonize its overall economy. President Xi has said that CO2 emissions will peak before 2030 and that China will be carbon neutral by 2060. The Macro-economic Perspective China generates 28% of global CO2 emissions. Its energy-related emissions are 15% of the world’s […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis U.S. Midwest primary aluminum expressed over LME cash is 26-27 cents per pound, touted at “record levels.” In October 2014, Midwest traded premiums reached 23 cents per pound, so on paper we have set a new high….or have we? 2014: the Era of the LME Warehouse Queues We don’t […]
By CRU Analyst Kevin Bai from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor China has announced that it will remove the value-added tax (VAT) rebate it has historically applied to steel exports, alongside changes in import and export tariffs. This will increase the cost of exporting and discourage export volumes, which will help loosen a tight domestic […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis The EU continues to move ahead on its plan to decrease greenhouse gases (GHGs). Here’s some historical context on emissions management in the EU. The EU has been on a long journey to its current condition. Phase 1 of its decarbonization plan took place between 2005-2017. The Emissions Trading […]
By CRU Principal Analyst James Campbell, from CRU’s Steel Long Products Monitor Global long product prices have increased to the highest level since 2008. Global supply has tightened due to production cuts and changes to export tax rebates in China. Demand is strong in many regions, but Covid-19 outbreaks and seasonal patterns mean some weakness […]
By Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) increased by 8.3% m/m in May to 370.7. Following China’s removal of a VAT rebate for steel exports, scrap markets in Asia surged. This momentum carried over to Turkey, where scrap import prices rose substantially m/m, although upward […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Welcome to inflation after a 40-year absence. I spoke at the 2021 Aluminum Extruders Council Annual Meeting in March and said to the audience that if you were under the age of 55, you probably have never seen real inflation. The last time the U.S. experienced high, persistent inflation […]
By Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor One year ago, the title of our May Steel Sheet Products Monitor was “Global sheet markets move past bottom of demand cycle.” Today, global sheet consumption continues to rise, reaching levels where current global production cannot keep pace. In addition to the continued demand rebound from […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor The iron ore market has experienced one of the most volatile weeks on record. Prices have traded within a $40 /dmt range within the past week due to demand uncertainty in China. On Tuesday, May 18, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Monitor Global steel prices, as measured by the CRUspi index, have increased for the 10th consecutive month, gaining 9.4% m/m and 116% y/y. This index now stands at 301.1, a new record high. This index continues to be supported by higher finished steel prices across all regions. […]
By CRU Research Manager, Aluminum, Eoin Dinsmore Utilizing the powerful CarbonFlow feature in CRU’s Emissions Analysis Tool, we explain why Rusal is proposing a demerger of its higher-carbon aluminum assets. UC Rusal, the largest aluminum producer outside China, announced on May 18 that it plans to split into two companies. “AL+” will house the company’s […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Whenever prices for key commodities such as aluminum, steel, wood or rubber start to really rise, there is a natural tendency for Procurement Officers to say, “let’s look at alternatives.” That’s their job, and if they weren’t looking at options to compensate for cost increases, they would be fired. […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Analysis Primary aluminum prices are on a roll in China and the World ex China. The Shanghai Metal Exchange (SHFE) spot price is 18,425 RMB or $2,825 per metric ton. Even adjusting out the 13% Value-Added-Tax (VAT) embedded in that price, it’s still a 10-year high of $2,500 per metric […]
You may be thinking about participating in one of our upcoming Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshops, but wonder what it’s like to learn virtually. If you have school age kids, you already know that so many of us have adapted to online learning. Here at SMU, we’ve had to pivot […]
You may be thinking about participating in one of our upcoming Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshops, but wonder what it’s like to learn virtually. If you have school age kids, you already know that so many of us have adapted to online learning. Here at SMU, we’ve had to pivot […]
Update on Tampa Steel Conference registrations: We are moving past 250 registered attendees for the Feb. 2 virtual conference. We fully anticipate the 32nd annual Tampa Steel Conference will attract 350-400+ attendees from manufacturing, distribution, steel mills, trading companies, logistics companies, ship lines, port facilities, toll processors and suppliers to those industries. You can learn more about the […]
Most new U.S. flat-rolled electric-arc furnace steelmaking capacity won’t start up until the second half of this year, which could have big implications for spot hot-rolled coil prices. The back-ended nature of the capacity add means the market might sustain hot-rolled coil prices of $1,000 per ton or more longer than many buyers believe, industry sources […]
2021 will be a year of hope for recovery after the coronavirus pandemic left its mark on the world in 2020. Monitoring the speed and nature of the recovery will be vital to understanding all markets. Drawing on conversations between market experts and people across commodity value chains, CRU expects interest in three topics to […]
By CRU Research Analyst Eduardo Tinti, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Iron ore prices continued to rise over the past week. Due to offloading constraints at Chinese ports, iron ore port inventories declined, contributing to the recent price hike. On Tuesday, Jan. 12, CRU assessed the 62% Fe fines price at $172.0 /dmt, $5.0 […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Sheet prices in the U.S. Midwest market have not only continued to rise, but the m/m gains have come so fast that our second Wednesday price assessment completely skipped the $900 /s.ton level. Our Jan. 12 price assessment for HR coil is $1,044 […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 27.1% m/m in January to 349.9 after metallics prices rose notably in every market we cover. As this is the second month of large price increases, many markets are now at, or nearly at, record highs. […]