North American auto assemblies declined by 15.5% in April, edging down for the first time year-to-date, and for the first time since last November. Last month’s assemblies, however, were still 7.8% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. While supply levels began to rebound in the second half of last year, inventories fell modestly in […]
Sheet prices came down harder than I expected this week. I probably shouldn’t have been surprised. For starters, mills are still making money at these levels, so there is not a lot of friction to lowering prices to get an order. Also, lead times are or will soon be overlapping with a period when we’re […]
US apparent steel supply rose 6% in March to 8.03 million net tons compared to the previous month, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Apparent steel supply is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deducting total US […]
Since 1997, the US Department of Commerce has had a regulation permitting an “expedited review” of subsidy determinations in countervailing duty investigations. The importers of subject merchandise in these cases are often denied individual subsidy rates because Commerce lacks the resources to investigate every company. To compensate for the department’s insufficient resources, any company not […]
Premiums for aluminum in the US took fell again last week following a period of stability after the Federal Reserve stepped in the wake of the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Economic struggles have continued to depress shipment volumes into Q2, and many major macro data points are still muddied. Last week another bank […]
We have a few confrontations this week. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are scheduled to meet this week on resolving the debt ceiling confrontation. Some sort of compromise seems likely, but a cataclysm involving government default is hardly out of the question. The time for agreement is nigh—US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has moved […]
CRU expects metallics prices to continue trending down in May 2023 as supply will continue to outpace demand in most markets. In the US, obsolete scrap prices are expected to move lower as the inflow to scrap yards will pick up seasonally, and dealers get more inclined to sell. In Europe, the macroeconomic environment will […]
Steel exports from the US increased 8% in February from the previous month, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. Total exports for February were 786,223 tons vs. 728,907 tons in January. This is the highest exports have been since August 2022 when they were at 800,677 tons. Canada led the way with 350,998 tons of exports. […]
Fresh off another rate hike from the Fed, US macro data came in mixed during the month of March. The final update for GDP in Q4 2022 showed 2.6% growth, which was down slightly month over month and below expectations. Consumer spending has also been revised down consistently over each update on the Q4 figures. […]
The LME aluminum three-month price steadied this week despite a whirlwind of upsetting news, finding its footing near $2,300 per metric ton. That’s below the $2,500-per-ton mark we saw as 2023 opened on a more optimistic tone. The recent news from across the geopolitical and macroeconomic scene has dampened demand sentiment in the near term. […]
North American auto assemblies rose 1.3%% in February, expanding for a second straight month after declining repeatedly to close out 2022. Last month’s assemblies are 8.4% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. Despite the repeated increases through February, production hasn’t topped the 1.2-million-unit mark since November. And while inventories have improved, the market remains […]
The US International Trade Commission issued a report to Congress last week on the impact of the Section 232 import restrictions on steel and aluminum and the tariffs on imports from China under Section 301. The report catalogued significant injury to downstream industries. Namely, those that use steel or aluminum in manufacturing. The losses were […]
The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) for March increased by 7.4% month-on-month to 357.7, the highest level since last June. The main developments have been in Turkey, where the tragic earthquake initially had a negative effect on scrap buying from the largest scrap importing country, though in the second half of February this quickly turned […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products increased in January, recovering from a 23-month low the month prior. January’s shipments were the highest since last August and totaled 7.63 million tons, a 6.5% increase from December’s 7.17 million tons. Apparent supply also saw a month-on-month (MoM) increase in January, up 7.9% vs. the prior month. This analysis […]
The steel industry in the US, and across much of the developed world, finds itself between two greens. On the one hand is the constant innovation towards sustainable, decarbonized “green” steel. And, on the other, is a more traditional green, the bottom line: money. The hope is to keep the two aligned, increasing profits while […]
By CRU Senior Analyst, Puneet Paliwal, from CRU’s Scrap, DRI/HBI & Pig Iron Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) for March rose by 7.4% month on month (MoM), to 357.7, which is its highest value since June 2022. Strong Turkish buying of scrap and pig iron since the second half of February is the key […]
The White House recently released the president’s 2024 federal budget proposal. It is a huge document, proposing to spend nearly $7 trillion during the year beginning Oct. 1. That is a significant increase over the FY2023 budget approved by Congress. It even surpasses federal spending during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. For those oncerned […]
Three US senators have asked the US Trade Representative to engage with the European Union on proposed measures that would limit the trade of steel scrap. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.), Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), and Todd Young (R., Ind.) wrote a letter to USTR Katherine Tai on Feb. 28. The letter outlines the potential fallout to […]
Despite the economic concerns that lowered consumer sentiment towards the end of 2022, aluminum products demand has held up throughout the first three months of the year. A slowdown from the frenetic post-pandemic pace is apparent. Overall, though, both rollers and extruders comment that conditions are better than expected. The new order index as released […]
Mexico has historically relied on steel sheet product imports to meet its demand as domestic suppliers, such as Ternium and AHMSA, had insufficient production capacity. But, in recent years, both Ternium and ArcelorMittal have built new capacities for hot-rolled (HR) coil in Mexico. Ternium is also in the process of building more downstream capacity and […]
The US government will impose a 200% tariff on aluminum products of Russian origin starting on March 10, the Biden administration announced Friday. Additionally, starting on April 10, a 200% ad valorem tariff will be applied to products that contain any amount of primary aluminum used in the manufacturing of aluminum products that are smelted or cast in Russia. The […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products declined in December, easing for the second straight month after fluctuating up and down for much of the year. December was the lowest mill shipment total for 2022, falling to the lowest total since February 2021. Shipments totaled 7.27 million tons in December, a 1% decrease from November’s 7.34 […]
North American auto assemblies rose 16.1% in January, recovering for the first time in three months. Last month’s assembly output was among one of the highest in nearly two years and 13.8% higher year on year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. On the supply side, inventory levels are expected to gradually improve this year as […]
Should there be limits on the power of the US Commerce Department under the antidumping laws to impose punitive and potentially prohibitive duties on imports? Last week, the Court of International Trade (CIT) placed some limits on Commerce to do so. The CIT rejected punitive duties in an antidumping investigation of utility-scale (i.e., big) wind towers from […]
As US sheet prices continue the rally that began in late November, overall import levels remain relatively low. But lead times have extended and so too have mill asking prices. US mills are now asking for $900 per short ton ($45 per cwt) for hot-rolled coil. Market contacts in Europe note that exports from India […]
US apparent steel supply rose 2% in December to 8.2 million net tons compared to the previous month, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Apparent steel supply is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deducting total US […]
US steel exports decreased in December compared to November, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. December’s exports total stood at 592,060 tons vs. 697,447 tons the previous month. December was the lowest volume month for 2022. In comparison to recent years, export levels were relatively high for the majority of 2022. Of our six monitored product groups […]
The Covid-19-related shutdowns and subsequent supply chain disruptions emphasized the importance of onshoring. Geopolitical uncertainty, the war in Ukraine, and recent sovereign security issues, have added to global supply chain concerns. In the US, new legislation, the IRA, USMCA, and Build Back Better have focused on securing and bolstering North American manufacturing conditions. The task […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Thais Terzian, Analyst Anton Perevezentsev, and Research Analyst Rosy Finlayson On February 6-7, a series of devastating earthquakes struck several provinces in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria, leaving thousands dead and many injured. The quakes also resulted in a massive destruction to the infrastructure of both countries. The first quake measured […]
Now that the new year is one-twelfth over, the changes from last year are taking shape. In foreign policy and trade, a primary focus has changed from economics to geopolitics. Trade between the West and China, which has been the key metric for the last 20 years, has tapered off, although it remains strong. Trade […]