The Covid-19-related shutdowns and subsequent supply chain disruptions emphasized the importance of onshoring. Geopolitical uncertainty, the war in Ukraine, and recent sovereign security issues, have added to global supply chain concerns. In the US, new legislation, the IRA, USMCA, and Build Back Better have focused on securing and bolstering North American manufacturing conditions. The task […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Thais Terzian, Analyst Anton Perevezentsev, and Research Analyst Rosy Finlayson On February 6-7, a series of devastating earthquakes struck several provinces in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria, leaving thousands dead and many injured. The quakes also resulted in a massive destruction to the infrastructure of both countries. The first quake measured […]
Now that the new year is one-twelfth over, the changes from last year are taking shape. In foreign policy and trade, a primary focus has changed from economics to geopolitics. Trade between the West and China, which has been the key metric for the last 20 years, has tapered off, although it remains strong. Trade […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor Steel sheet price volatility has peaked in the US after record average week-on-week (WoW) price changes during 2022. In our view, prices will trade in a much narrower band over at least the next five years (barring any further black swan events) – […]
By CRU Research Analyst Yusu Mao, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor Last week, buying activity continued in the Turkish scrap market, and our assessment for HMS 80:20 rose slightly to $411 per ton CFR Turkey, that’s a $3-per-ton increase week on week and a boost of more than $30 per ton vs. the prior month […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email info@steelmarketupdate.com. The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was released earlier this month, forecasting spot prices, production, and inventories for crude oil and natural gas. It […]
Steel Dynamic Inc.’s new sheet mill in Sinton, Texas, should become profitable in 2023 after costing the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker more than $400 million in 2022, company executives said. The shift should come thanks to increased shipments, lower raw material costs, and a lack of import competition from Mexico stemming from production issues at […]
US apparent steel supply dropped 6% in November to 8 million net tons compared to the previous month, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Apparent steel supply is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deducting total US […]
US steel export volumes remained relatively flat in November compared to October, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. November’s exports total stood at 697,447 tons vs. 697,399 tons the previous month. October remains the lowest volume export month for 2022. In comparison to recent years, export levels had remained high for the majority of 2022. Of our six monitored […]
North American auto assemblies declined 13.8% in December, slowing down for the second straight month. Last month’s assembly output was the second-lowest total in 2022 and just 3.4% higher year on year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. December finished as the third consecutive month at more than one million units. Though inventories have improved, the […]
Editor’s note: Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members. For information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Total US mill shipments of steel products slipped in November and reached their lowest total year to date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year […]
The US International Trade Commission (ITC) has voted to remove duties on Brazilian hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and plate. Once might be a coincidence. But three times? That’s a trend. The question now: Is this a big-picture shift in US trade policy toward Brazil? Or is it instead more a matter of inside baseball at the […]
Last week I wrote about the US loss in the Section 232 steel and aluminum trade dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This week, the US suffered another loss—the dispute settlement proceeding under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on the Agreement’s rules of origin for automobiles. The United States has thus recently lost two […]
The United States lost a dispute in the World Trade Organization last month. This is hardly the first time. In this case, tariffs and other import restrictions on steel and aluminum imposed by President Trump in 2018 were found to violate WTO agreements. The United States argued that its invocation of “essential security interests” was […]
At the start of each year, CRU continues to feature top expectations and outliers for the year ahead. This annual list of expectations is a thought piece, meant to stimulate internal discussions, scenario analysis, and strategic planning around potential risks to the markets we cover. This 2023 edition covers six expectations and three potential outliers. […]
With 2022 now in the past, the door has closed on one of the most volatile years for the aluminum industry. Supply chain disruptions as a residual fallout from Covid-19 and elevated levels of geopolitical risk raised uncertainty throughout the value chain. The shift in import trends has also been a major topic and is […]
The US economy’s growth was even better than expected in the third quarter, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its third and final review. Gross Domestic Production (GDP) accelerated to a 3.2% annualized pace in Q3. That’s an improvement from the previously estimated government reading in November, which showed 2.9% […]
US apparent steel supply ticked up 3% in October to 8.5 million net tons, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Recall that apparent supply had fallen to a 19-month low in September—so while levels increased in October, it represents the third-lowest figure recorded in […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products edged up in October, recovering slightly month on month (MoM), after falling in September to their lowest total year to date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year with little consistency, and October was no different. October’s shipments totaled 7.65 million tons, a 0.9% increase […]
North American auto assemblies declined by 6.2% in November, reversing the nearly 3% increase in October. Last month’s assembly output was among the lowest totals year-to-date (YTD) and just 3.7% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. Though the market remains supply-constrained due to ongoing parts and supply shortages, November’s downgraded production continued to […]
US steel export volumes eased further from September to October, falling 4% to 697,000 net tons, according to the latest US Commerce Department data. Exports are now at a nine-month low, with October being the third slowest month of trade over the past 20 months. Exports have trended downwards since peaking in March and April of this […]
In this Global Economic Outlook, we look ahead to 2023 and outline our top ten calls for the global economy. These include predictions on inflation, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles and Covid-19 in China. No. 1: Global Growth Will Slow From 2022 We expect both the US and Europe to experience recessions over the […]
2022: A Year of Unprecedented Change and Volatility We entered 2022 expecting plenty of change in aluminum and the market delivered more than its fair share of twists and turns. There were 3 macroeconomic effects that rippled through the entire global economy: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring, as they “weaponized” their […]
Welded pipe imports from four nations will continue to face antidumping (AD) duties after determinations from US trade agencies. Circular Welded Carbon-Quality Steel Pipe from Oman, Pakistan, and UAE — Sunset Review Results Circular welded carbon-quality steel pipe from Oman, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates will continue to be subject to AD duties for at […]
The Biden administration has, from its early days, presented a “worker-centered” trade policy. Katherine Tai, the US Trade Representative (USTR), has used that term consistently. What does that mean exactly? The “worker-centered” narrative includes, as is common in most policy debates, addressing the disparate impact on minorities and the disadvantaged. When a factory closes, those […]
Steel market conditions might be tough for the balance of the year, but Stelco sees the early signs of better times in the first quarter. The Hamilton, Ontario-based integrated sheet producer is also keeping a keen eye out for potential distressed acquisitions, company executives suggested during an earnings conference call with analysts on Wednesday, Nov. […]
North American auto assemblies rose by 8.7% in October, rebounding from a similar decline in September. Last month’s assembly output was the third-best total year-to-date (YTD) and nearly 22% higher year-on-year (YoY), according to LMC Automotive data. Though the market remains supply-constrained due to ongoing parts and supply shortages, production in October continued to show signs […]
The London Metal Exchange (LME) consultation with industry has come and gone with no action. The Exchange on Friday, Nov. 11, published its response to submissions from the industry on the issue of Russian metals. As a refresher, the LME asked for opinion on three options: • Do nothing • Impose limits on the warranting of […]
Total US mill shipments of steel products were down in September, falling to their lowest total year-to-date (YTD). Mill shipments have been fluctuating up and down all year with little consistency. September’s shipments totaled 7.58 million tons, a 7.2% decline from August’s 8.18 million tons, and the lowest total since February 2021. Apparent supply also saw a […]
US apparent steel supply eased further in September, down 8% from August to 8.29 million net tons, according to data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). As the lowest monthly figure since February 2021, this was a 19-month low. September supply was 10% below the average monthly rate […]