With little likelihood of a recession any time soon, the U.S. economy appears to be in better shape than many people believe. This Steel Market Update analysis attempts to provide guidance on the likelihood of a recession in the next six months. Steel demand is related to GDP, but is vastly more volatile both on […]
State and locally funded construction is relatively healthy, but privately funded work is in decline, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of Commerce Department data. Construction Put in Place (CPIP) expenditures data for October was released on Dec. 2. Through October, total construction had negative momentum every month since October last year. In the […]
Editor’s note: The following commentary in support of the Trump administration steel tariffs was contributed by Barry Zekelman, chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries, the largest steel pipe and tube manufacturer in North America. We often hear that the Trump administration’s steel tariffs are hurting the U.S. economy. News commentators certainly think so. They talk […]
New home sales in October dipped slightly from September, down 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The dip, however, occurred after the September sales estimate was revised upward to 738,000 from 701,000. Sales for the past […]
Data from S&P Dow Jones Indices show that home prices in the U.S. increased modestly in September. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA posted an annual gain of 3.2 percent, up from 3.1 percent in August. The 20-City Composite rose 2.1 percent year-over-year, a 0.1 percent gain from the previous month. “September’s […]
Existing home sales had a slight recovery in October, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales of existing homes, including single-family, townhomes, condos and co-ops, increased 1.9 percent from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million. Sales were up 4.6 percent from October 2018. “Historically low interest rates, continuing job expansion, […]
Housing starts grew 3.8 percent from September to October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,314,000 and rose 8.5 percent from October 2018, according to the latest report from the Commerce Department and U.S. Housing and Urban Development. Single-family housing starts were up 2 percent from September and housing starts in buildings of five […]
By Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 7.5 percent m/m to 195.7 (see chart) after prices rose in most markets. The most pronounced rebounds were in the U.S. and European scrap markets, while prices in Asia either rose or were stable. Prices in regions […]
Commerce Department Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data for September confirms the contraction that began in June 2019. CPIP expenditures data for September was released on Nov 1. Through September, total construction had negative momentum every month since October last year. In the period June through September, total construction declined each month on a year-over-year […]
Home prices rose in August but at a slowing pace, says S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 3.2 percent annual gain compared to 3.1 percent in July. An annual gain of 1.5 percent was reported for the 10-City Composite compared to 1.6 percent in July. […]
The International Monetary Fund updates its World Economic Outlook in April and October each year. The IMF has increased its forecast of U.S. GDP growth in 2020, but decreased it in each year 2021 through 2023 with no change in 2024. The opening statement of the IMF’s WEO, released Oct. 15, begins as follows: “The […]
Existing home sales fell 2.2. percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in September, says the National Association of Realtors. The decline followed two consecutive months of gain. Sales in the Midwest fell the hardest but all four regions saw declines. Higher home prices due to insufficient inventory was partially to […]
Housing starts fell 9.4 percent in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000, well below the August revised rate of 1,386,000 due mostly to a large decline in the multifamily sector. Single-family housing rose 0.3 percent from August, while units in buildings of five units or more plummeted 28.3 percent. All four regions […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
Steel Market Update’s canvass of the market this past week reveals that many buyers are leaning pessimistic about their prospects for the fourth quarter. The majority responding to SMU’s questionnaire expect demand to continue weakening, prices to continue declining and growth to remain flat into the fourth quarter and possibly beyond. Demand SMU asked: At […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share the following Premium content with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. When is the U.S. economy likely to see its next recession? Not anytime soon, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of leading economic indicators, which all appear fairly healthy. Steel demand […]
Commerce Department Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data for August, released Oct. 1, shows total construction has had negative momentum every month since October last year. In the months June, July and August, total construction declined for the first time since November 2011, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of the Commerce data. At SMU, […]
New home sales rose a solid 7.1 percent in August and jumped 18 percent from a year ago, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000. “With job growth continuing and lower interest rates in […]
Price growth continues to slow in the housing market, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index for July 2019 reported an average annual gain of 3.2 percent, unchanged from June. The 20-City composite posted a 2.0 percent gain from 2.2 percent in the prior […]
Housing starts rebounded in August, jumping 12.3 percent from July and 6.6 percent from a year ago to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,364,000. Multifamily construction surged 30.9 percent and single-family starts 4.4 percent from July. “Housing has been on an upswing in recent months as the pace of permits and starts has been […]
Existing home sales grew for the second consecutive month with three U.S. regions reporting higher gains, said the National Association of Realtors. Sales rose 1.3 percent from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million in August. Sales were up 2.6 percent from a year ago. Sales of single-family homes rose 2.9 percent […]
Builder confidence hit a one-year high in September, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The HMI, which measures builder perceptions of current and future sales of new single-family homes, rose one point to 68. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 75 and the component measuring traffic of […]
Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data released Sept. 3 by the Commerce Department shows the first decline in total construction in nearly eight years. Through July, total construction has had negative momentum every month since October last year, and in June and July total construction declined for the first time since November 2011, according to Steel […]
New home sales fell 12.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000 from June’s revised rate of 728,000, acccording to the latest report from Commerce. Sales increased 4.3 percent from a year ago and were 4.1 percent higher on a year-to-date basis. The revision to sales was notable due to the upward rise […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Home buyers in the U.S. bought more existing homes in July as mortgage rates continued to ease. The National Association of Realtors reports that existing-home sales rose 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million after dipping in June. On a year-over-year basis, existing home sales were 0.6 percent higher last month. […]
Housing starts in July dipped 4.0 percent from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,184,000, but were 0.6 percent higher than a year ago, reports the U.S. Department of Commerce. Single-family housing starts gained 1.3 percent from the previous month, while starts for buildings with five units or more fell 17.2 percent. “Despite […]
The following editorial is by Allan Golombek, a Senior Director at the White House Writers Group, and was published on Aug. 12, 2019 by RealClearMarkets. The steel industry should have listened to the founder of Nucor. In 1986, Ken Iverson pointed out that protectionist measures to save the American steel industry had not had the desired […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Of the eight indicators of economic health tracked by Steel Market Update, none is flashing red. Taken as a whole, they signal that the U.S. economy is safe from recession for […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison Total IP contracted q/q in both Q1 and Q2, but the June report pointed to potential stabilization in manufacturing. YTD through June, total IP is up 2.2 percent y/y, but it is averaging just 1 percent higher than in 2018. Since we expect little expansion during H2, we now […]