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    Hot Rolled Futures: The Bear Market is Dead; Ferrous Rally Time!

    Written by David Feldstein


    The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments made by David Feldstein are his opinions and not those of SMU or the CRU Group. We recommend that anyone interested in trading steel futures enlist the help of a licensed broker or bank.

    The bear market that started in July 2018 is over. I use July 2018 as the start of the bear market only in retrospect because at the time, flat rolled markets were unknowingly coming to the end of one of the longest and most explosive rallies in Midwest HRC history. What looks to be occurring now is a shift from the brutally long 16-month bear market to a nascent bull market with the low set in mid-October at $492 on the rolling 2nd month CME Midwest HRC future.

    David Feldstein, SMU Contributor

    David Feldstein

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    Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 12, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,240 per short ton (st) this week, a $10/st increase from a week earlier. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,305/st, up $15/st from the prior week. Nucor is still offering lead times of three to five weeks, according to the letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 6, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,270/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 13.