SMU was disappointed in two key data sets which were released this past week. The first was the MSCI service center shipment and inventories which indicated a weakening economy and a continuation of the high inventory levels at the U.S. distributors. The second was the import license data through the first 15 days of October […]
USW negotiations with ArcelorMittal and US Steel continue to be bogged down. The USW bargaining committee with ArcelorMittal will take a brief break this coming week to conduct discussions with local membership. “We urge ArcelorMittal management to use this time away from the table to consider the uncertainty and strain this unnecessarily long, drawn-out process […]
AK Steel announced on Friday that it will temporarily idle the blast furnace and related steelmaking operations at the Ashland, Kentucky Works facility as a result of challenging domestic market conditions. AK Steel said it does not intend to idle the hot-dip galvanizing line at Ashland Works that primarily services automotive customers. The company has […]
We have two data sources for this report: the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily Broad Index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. As of October 15th the […]
As I was sitting at my desk this evening (around 8 PM ET) thinking about what I was going to write about in my Final Thoughts article, I flipped over to my second computer screen to look at the U.S. Department of Commerce site dealing with foreign steel imports. The site is normally updated every […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
SMU has developed a series of foreign steel import reports that enable steel buyers and company executives to see exactly how much imported steel has entered their immediate vicinity and where it came from. This series of reports includes hot rolled, cold rolled, Hot Dipped Galvanized, other metallic coated (mainly Galvalume) as well as semi-finished […]
Licensed data for September was updated on October 6th through the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department. The SMU publishes several import reports ranging from this very early look using licensed data to the very detailed analysis of final volumes by district of entry and source nation which is available to our […]
A debate has begun as to when flat rolled steel prices will bottom and begin to reverse course. Part of that dialogue is what will supply look like should US Steel go through with balancing their production by temporarily taking down their Granite City Works. This would be on top of the trade suits which […]
In the first eight months of this year bulk scrap exports were 8.801,000 tonnes for an annual rate of 13,202,000 tonnes, down by 15.4 percent from the first eight months of last year. The tonnages shown in Figure 1 are based on three month moving averages for 2015 and on the twelve month monthly average […]
US Steel announced on Tuesday that it is examining a possible consolidation of its North American flat rolled operations and may idle steelmaking operations and most finishing operations at Granite City. US Steel said it routinely adjusts production to align with market fluctuations. The potential consolidation is a result of challenging global market conditions, including […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released new license data for the month of September and the latest number for foreign steel imports is 2,891,217 tons (net tons). September appears poised to drop 224,000 tons below the August number. The September license data was released at the same time the US DOC reported Final Census Data […]
Today, the Department of Commerce announced its final determinations in the antidumping and countervailing duty investigations on imports of welded pipe from Korea and Turkey. The DOC determined that imports of welded line pipe from Korea and Turkey have been sold in the United States at dumping margins ranging from 2.53 percent to 6.19 percent […]
The 12 countries of the Trans-Pacific Partnership have finally reached accord on an agreement after more than five years of intensive negotiations, effectively creating the world’s largest free trade zone. US Trade Representative Michael Froman said in an announcement that the agreement will “support jobs, drive sustainable growth, foster inclusive development and promote innovation across […]
Essar Steel Algoma will begin laying off employees on Sunday evening (Oct. 4) starting with the evening shift. USW Local 2551 received notice that approximately 100 workers will be cut, with the plate and cold mills most heavily affected. “We’ve had to match staffing levels to production and we have experienced a sustained drop in […]
AIIS reports that steel imports in August dropped a significant 8.2 percent from July to total 3.02 million tons. The biggest reductions were seen in imports from the EU, Mexico and China. AIIS says the decline in steel purchase is a harbinger of slower growth for construction and the economy. The press release from AIIS […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) sources reported the domestic steel mills have canceled any remaining ferrous scrap tonnage that was not delivered during the month of September. This is normal when the mills believe that they will be able to negotiate lower prices for October delivery. As reported earlier this week, the expectation is for scrap […]
A check on port conditions in the Gulf region revealed that warehouses are low on steel inventory as customers cautiously anticipate the outcome of antidumping cases. SMU’s source in the Houston area had the following comments: “Our company predominantly handles flat rolled products and we have seen a depletion of inventory as our customers await […]
Steel imports to Mexico will see a 15 percent increase in tariffs for the next six months. The government said it will impose the temporary increase on imports from countries that do not have a free-trade agreement with Mexico in an attempt to stem the surge of low-priced imports flooding the country. Canacero, the Mexican […]
Flat rolled steel prices have been slipping on a regular basis for a number of months. This has created a market where buyers expect lower prices each time they order steel, even if there is only a week or two between orders. This tends to keep order sizes modest and develops a feeding frenzy between […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. In the big picture, the change (delta, Δ) in GDP is equal to the change in population plus the change in productivity, that is Δ GDP = Δ Population + Δ […]
U.S. Congressman Pete Visclosky (D) addressed the International Trade Commission (ITC) hearing on cut-to-length carbon steel plate today, calling for the ITC to maintain the existing antidumping orders on cut-to-length steel plate from China, and the suspension agreements from Russia and Ukraine. “As a representative and resident of Northwest Indiana, one of our nation’s foremost […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released August Preliminary Census Data showing August imports as being 3,016,157 net tons (2.7 million metric tons). August imports are down 200,000 tons compared to July and were below both the 3 month and 12 month moving averages. When looking at flat rolled items we found a small reduction in […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
The following press release came out late this afternoon and we caught it early this evening. The announcement is about the hot rolled trade cases and whether the US International Trade Commission (ITC) found enough evidence to determine that the probability exists that the U.S. steel industry was “materially damaged” by hot rolled exports from […]
Steel Market Update participates in a monthly steel conference call with HARDI wholesalers who supply galvanized sheet and coil products to the HVAC mechanical contractors across the United States and Canada. The wholesalers also supply other products such as air conditioners, furnaces and many other products to companies working on residential, multi-family and commercial construction […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released new foreign steel import license data this afternoon that suggests imports for the month of September may not be below 3.0 million tons after all. At this moment, using data through today and projecting the rate to remain the same for the balance of the month, September would come […]
We finally got our Flat Rolled Steel Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit Inventory forecast model back on track. As we mentioned last month, SMU had been operating under a much more optimistic frame of mind and this past month we pulled back on our expectations and by doing so we came very close to nailing both […]