Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 23, 2015
The difference between auto industry and steel industry: the UAW has issue a notice to GM that they could walk out at midnight tonight (Sunday) if they don’t have a contract. The USW is content to work under the old contract for as long as they can get away with it since both US Steel and ArcelorMittal are trying to gain concessions. Automotive companies know now is not the time to shut down profitable businesses. Steel mills haven’t quite figured out what they need to do to survive until the next up pricing cycle. The USW and US Steel go back to the negotiation table this week.
We are asked quite often what the difference is between our Executive or regular newsletter and website access versus that of our Premium level members. We produced a number of Premium supplemental issues last week covering such topics as: Global Steel Production & Capacity Utilization for September, US Vehicle Sales & NAFTA Vehicle Production for September, a special analysis of Service Center Intake, Shipments & Inventory for September (including long products & plate), Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization where our analysis showed a slowing manufacturing sector (although growth is still positive).
Last week we also produced our Imports by Product, Port of Entry and Country which allows our Premium members to see what countries are penetrating their local markets and what changes are happening to the trend for each country.
We also produced our Flat Rolled Steel Market Analysis (survey) Power Point presentation. We produce this special analysis twice per month and our presentations get rave reviews from both the financial community as well as the general steel community. For those of you on an Executive level membership you can see an example of what one of our Power Point presentations looks like by clicking on this link (or going to our Analysis tab and selecting Full Survey Results Sample from the menu in the drop down screen.
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A reminder that our next Steel 101 workshop will be held in Starkville, Mississippi (Columbus, MS area) on January 19-20, 2016. This workshop will include a tour of the SDI Columbus steel mills. Details are on our website or you can click on this link.
Thank you again for your business which is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Another day, another massive gap between the news and market sentiment. On the news side, we’ve got war in the Middle East. The devastation facing western North Carolina coming into tragic focus. And the outcome of the presidential election remains a coin toss, according to current polling.
Final thoughts
There are markets where the headlines and the prices are both crazy. This does not appear to be one of them, at least not yet.
Final thoughts
Washington loomed large in our surveys this week. Two things actually: the upcoming presidential election and the trade case against imported coated products from 10 nations.
Final thoughts
Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.
Final thoughts
SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday: