The U.S. Department of Commerce recently released revised import statistics for the month of November and December. Total preliminary imports for November are 2,584,176 net tons (NT), down 16.7 percent compared to October import figures. November imports are below both the 3 month-moving-average (3MMA) and 12 month-moving-average (12MMA) calculated through October. December imports, based on […]
The year 2013 for hot rolled steel futures was a story of two halves, with the beginning of the year trading in a strong contango and the second half of the year stuck in backwardation. The beginning of the year was characterized by low prices and significant volatility while the second half of the year […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in December from 53.1 in November, expanding for the twelfth consecutive month. Manufacturing production increased at its fastest pace since Feb. 2011, with growth rate of new orders holding steady at November’s rate. Exports rose for the sixth consecutive month. The US, Japan, Germany, the UK […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index showed disappointing manufacturing conditions for December. The survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general index at 1.0, up three points from November but indicating almost no change in activity for the month. The future outlook index was slightly less optimistic than November with all indices […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator ended the month of December where it began, indicating higher flat rolled steel prices over the next 30 days. The domestic steel mills did not disappoint as they raised base price levels to $35.00/cwt on hot rolled and $40.50/cwt on cold rolled and coated (plus extras, FOB mill) for the mills […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in December for the seventh consecutive month and rose to its second highest reading of 2013. The PMI (purchasing managers index) registered 57 percent according to the December 2013 ISM Manufacturing Report on Business. New orders, employment, supplier deliveries and prices all grew at a faster rate in December. New Orders increased […]
Chinese iron ore imports rose to 77,840,000 metric tons (MT) in November, a 14.8 percent increase over October tonnage. Compared to the same month one year ago, November imports were up 18.3 percent. Year-to-date (YTD) iron ore imports stood at 746,100,000 MT for the first 11 months of 2013. Steel scrap imports to China were […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty six. The present situation of eleven of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on December 28, the same as on November […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index showed disappointing manufacturing conditions for December. The survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported the general index at 1.0, up three points from November but indicating almost no change in activity for the month. The future outlook index was slightly less optimistic than November with all indices […]
Happy New Year to our members and those viewing our steel industry newsletter for the first time. We wish everyone a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year. We are quite bullish on the North American flat rolled steel industry for the first six months of 2014. Not every segment is clicking on all cylinders – […]
Ferrous scrap prices are expected to rise as we enter the New Year. Early indications are for scrap prices to make a rather serious move as cold weather sets into the North, further reducing already weak flows of the material into the scrap yards. Prices are forecast to move a minimum of $20-$30 per gross […]
According to the most recent U.S. Department of Commerce import license data, Chinese exports of cold rolled into the United States are beginning to surge. Based on license data through the 24th of December, cold rolled imports from China totaled 76,419 net tons of the 159,416 net tons requesting licenses. Since October 2012 the previous […]
Although Steel Market Update, Inc. is only “officially” 5.5 years old we are actually moving into our 9th year of publishing when the calendar changes to 2014. The first 2.5 years of continuous publication came during my tenure as an agent for Winner Steel along with my association with a couple of trading companies during […]
If you look under the “Analysis” tab there will be a drop down menu where you can access Imports/Exports – there is then a sub menu where the last item is imports by product, port and country. This is available only to Premium Level members. The October numbers are on the website. If you have […]
I thought our Premium Level readers might appreciate the latest forecast from Timna Tanners, Bank of America Merrill Lynch metals and mining analyst. Timna was a little “light” in her price forecast for 2013 hot rolled coil which was originally $555 average and was upgraded during the year to $622. Tanners believes some of the […]
The first estimate of Q3 GDP growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis surprised on the upside with a growth of 2.82 percent annualized, the second estimate came in at 3.6 percent and the third at 4.1 percent, well within the range that results in the growth of steel demand. GDP in Q3 2013 was […]
Financial Markets: Well two weeks back the S+P held that 1775 zone it tested. It has since rallied back to new highs yesterday at 1806.75, this for the March future. Yesterday the Fed announced the beginning of the easing of the easing, or bond buyback program. The Fed will start to taper their bond buying […]
U.S. Steel announced a price increase on Monday and the market appears to be cautiously optimistic as we enter the end of 2013 and look out into the New Year. The announcement itself was termed a “non-event” by one of the construction related steel mills with whom we spoke this afternoon as increases had previously […]
The futures market has traded in a very tight range over the past couple of weeks. Prices in the front months, December and January, have continued to firm trading around $670 per ton. The further out, the curve prices have remained backwardated as the risk of imports in the 2nd quarter onwards continues to weigh […]
Apparent steel supply for October was 9,445,160 net tons, a 12.63 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This was due to a large increase in domestic shipments and total imports, and a decrease in exports. The net trade balance from the difference between imports and exports was a surplus of imports […]
Total U.S. steel exports for the first 10 months of 2013 were 10,871,857 net tons (NT), a 7.69 percent decrease from the 11,777,542 NT exported for the same period in 2012. NAFTA exports decreased slightly during that time frame by 173,983 NT or 1.86 percent. U.S. exports to non-NAFTA countries within the Western Hemisphere were […]
The other day Steel Market Update wrote an article about steel buyers anticipating a flat rolled steel price increase announcement out of the domestic mills prior to the end of the year. Not everyone is a believer that will occur and we got several emails and phone calls pointing out short lead times at a […]
Prepainted flat rolled imports increased in October over August for all products followed by SMU, especially for galvanized and electro-galvanized. Compared to the same month one year ago, prepainted imports in October significantly increased for all products. As you can see by our table below – prepainted cold rolled (CR) imports increased by 376 NT […]
Year to date net imports of all hot worked products combined was 10,025,543 tons, down by 26,420 tons from the first ten months of 2012. This reduction was entirely driven by tubulars and plate. Pipe and tube had a decline in net imports of 925,617 tons and plate a decline of 509,778 tons. All other […]
Steel buyers are bracing for a new round of flat rolled price increases according to steel buyers and executives as well as the results of our most recent Steel Market Update (SMU) market analysis of the flat rolled steel market which we conducted this past week. “It’s time to raise the price of flat rolled […]
We continue to get positive feedback regarding the new SMU website. As with any new site as complicated as ours is there will be a few bugs and a learning curve to negotiate through in the early stages. We are working through those and believe we are offering a unique experience for those involved in […]
Final October import data was released earlier this week, showing total imports for the month at 3,101,063 net tons (2,813,240 metric tons). This figure is the highest tonnage seen since April 2012 when imports were 3,144,947 NT (2,853,051 MT). Total October imports are well above both the 3 and 12 month-moving-averages (MMA). Compared to September, […]
Imports of most rolled products and semi finished declined in November. The only exceptions were rail and tin plate. Sheet products were down by 21.5 percent in total but within that group coated products were down over 40 percent. An analysis of the 3 month moving averages (3MMA) of imports results in a very different […]
December tends to be a slow month having just come off of a late in the month Thanksgiving Holiday coupled with Christmas and the Jewish Holidays during the month of December. The bottom line is there are a limited number of shipping days during the month. One of the first things SMU will be watching […]
Negotiations on 2014 flat rolled steel contracts are heating up. Sources are advising Steel Market Update that there has been some movement in the negotiation process by the domestic mills which has allowed a number of the mills to close some 2014 business. We are also hearing from multiple sources of a move by buyers […]