The hot rolled coil futures market took a leg down this week as offers down the curve became more aggressive. After weeks and months of a fairly static forward curve, this renewed downward pressure of the past few days has shaken up the market. The Q2 traded today as low as $623, the Q3-4 at […]
The following article was written by David Phelps, the recently retired director of the American Institute for International Steel and now a contributing writer for Steel Market Update. You can find more information about Mr. Phelps in the About Us section of our website. On February 18th, the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration shocked […]
The following article was written by steel industry consultant and contributor to Steel Market Update, Paul Lowrey. Mr. Lowrey owns a consulting company called Steel Research Associated, LLC which works with steel mills and large distributors or manufacturing companies involved with steel and steel products. More information about Mr. Lowrey can be found in the […]
The following article was written by Peter Brebach who is the owner of Iron Angels of Colorado a company which specializes in imports of pipe and tube and other steel products. You can find more information on Mr. Brebach on our website in the About Us section. Everybody I talked to was surprised by the […]
The domestic steel mills and oil country tubular goods (OCTG) manufacturing companies which filed dumping cases against India, the Philippines, Saudia Arabia, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam are happy. However, the big fish – Korea – escaped with no duties being instituted. The U.S. Department of Commerce released affirmative preliminary determinations […]
We have posted the latest imports by product, port and country in the Premium section of the website. The most recent data is through the end of 2013. Some of the highlights include totals for hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and “other metallic coated” which is primarily Galvalume. This report provided information which can help […]
During the month of January, Steel Market Update provided steel import forecasts for the month of January based on the weekly license data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce. As we have explained previously, license data can be quite misleading compared to the final Census numbers. However, we did receive a number of emails […]
Prepainted flat rolled imports were mixed in December over November, with imports increasing for prepainted galvanized and electro-galvanized but decreasing for prepainted cold rolled and Galvalume. Overall, the four prepainted products tracked by SMU fell a combined 1,216 net tons (NT) or 5.5 percent over the previous month. Compared to the same month one year […]
The US Department of Commerce said it will maintain anti-dumping and countervailing duties on oil country tubular goods (OCTG) imported from China, in announcement made earlier this week. The recent decision closed loopholes in the 2009 AD/CV duties imposed by the International Trade Commission, which allowed pipe made in China but finished in other countries […]
Apparent steel supply for December was 8,662,212 net tons (NT), a 4.14 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This was due to a slight increase in domestic shipments and a decrease in exports. The net trade balance from the difference between imports and exports was a surplus of 1,635,411 net tons […]
Total construction expenditures in December were $70.278 billion, up by 4.8 percent from December 2012. Fourth quarter expenditures were up by 4.2 percent year over year (y/y) and 2013, as a whole, was up by 6.3 percent from 2012. Private construction continues to be the driver, up by 6.4 percent in Q4 y/y but state […]
The futures market has traded in a tight range over the past few weeks as the lack of volatility in the spot market has provided little direction for futures traders. The physical market remains stable, albeit a touch softer, while the looming threat of increased imports has continues to cast a long shadow over the […]
Imports of total flat rolled products increased in January to 990,803 tons from 852,840 in December. Total long products increased from 412,848 to 552,093 tons. Total sheet products as a sub set of flat rolled increased from 677,510 to 775,337 tons. Semi finished declined from 604,558 to 532.813 tons. An analysis of the 3 month […]
Using December license data, total 2013 imports are projected to have been 32,146,101 net tons (NT). This is a decrease of 4.0 percent from the 33,474,544 NT imported in 2012, however when compared to 2011 figures, 2013 total imports were up 12.7 percent. Looking back to 2007, prior to the recessionary period and where trade […]
On January 14, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral. This means we see steel market pricing at this moment as either in transition or moving sideways over the next 30 days. With ferrous scrap prices now weakening, lead times shortening and all of the available capacity back in […]
January 24th 2014. The Turkish Lira is in freefall. What does this mean for the US ferrous scrap industry? This is a hard question to answer because we don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know is that the Turkish Lira has declined by 20.1% against the US $ in the last 12 […]
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manufacturers Index (PMI) registered 51.3 percent in January. Although the index slid 5.2 percentage points from December, it is still an indicator of growth in the manufacturing sector. Most of the indices that make up the PMI fell in January. The new orders index took a significant dive of […]
Earnings reports are accompanied by conference calls which allow us to get some insight on what the steel leaders are thinking about in the industry. SMU decided to look at the comments by AK Steel, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and US Steel for ideas on where the steel industry is headed for 2014. All four of […]
The following HRC futures article is written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and the instructor of our new Managing Price Risk 2 – Strategies & Execution workshop. Well the S+P 500 took a turn down starting Thursday and Friday of last week, dropping from 1850 down to a 1770 low yesterday. We have […]
Using December license data, total 2013 imports are projected to have been 32,146,101 net tons (NT). This is a decrease of 4.0 percent from the 33,474,544 NT imported in 2012, however when compared to 2011 figures, 2013 total imports were up 12.7 percent. Looking back to 2007, prior to the recessionary period and where trade […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered by Steel Market Update at present is thirty six. The present situation of twelve of the indicators based on historical standards was positive on January 28th […]
Steel buyers reported a mixed bag this week with some mills quoting extremely long lead times (hot rolled at 6-8 weeks) while others were still willing to discuss pricing in early February if a reasonable order was connected to the competitive quotation. One service center executive told us about mill lead times, “USS is in […]
Mark Millet, CEO of Steel Dynamics told those listening to the SDI earnings conference call that second half 2013 sheet pricing appreciation was assisted by raw material pricing (higher scrap prices) and some supply disruptions. However, the “…underlying appreciation was driven by demand.” He went on to state that “…it’s a little difficult to determine […]
David Phelps warned our readers not to put too much stock in the U.S. Department of Commerce license data, which he felt could be very misleading. Our initial forecast for January steel imports produced through the aid of the import license data from the 14th and again on the 21st of January indicated a possible […]
US Steel reported a net loss of $122 million for the fourth quarter of 2013, compared to a Q3 net loss of $1,791 million and $50 million net loss in Q4 2012. The fourth quarter loss was due mostly to $302 million of charges related to the shutdown of the Hamilton steel making facility. Adjusted […]
January 24th 2014. The Turkish Lira is in freefall. What does this mean for the US ferrous scrap industry? This is a hard question to answer because we don’t know what we don’t know. What we do know is that the Turkish Lira has declined by 20.1% against the US $ in the last 12 […]
The Eurozone is expected to have mild yet fragile growth throughout 2014 according to the EUROFER Q1-2014 Economic and Steel Market Outlook compiled by the EUROFER Economic Committee (EC). Indicators are pointing towards increased growth for industrial production, an important component for carbon flat rolled steel production in Europe. GDP has been edging up since […]
The market has taken a decidedly bearish tone this week as many feel the first cracks in the physical market are starting to appear. While prices have come off around $5 down the forward curve, the weight is strongly on the offer side, with few buyers present. The threat of imports and decreasing raw material […]
HSBC Holdings and Markit released the preliminary (flash) Purchasing Managers’ Index this morning. The reading of 49.6 disappointed the financial markets as any reading below 50.0 indicates the Chinese manufacturing economy is contracting. Meanwhile, world benchmark iron ore spot prices have been falling over the past few weeks with The Steel Index (TSI) reporting 62% […]
HSBC Holdings and Markit released the preliminary (flash) Purchasing Managers’ Index this morning. The reading of 49.6 disappointed the financial markets as any reading below 50.0 indicates the Chinese manufacturing economy is contracting. Meanwhile, world benchmark iron ore spot prices have been falling over the past few weeks with The Steel Index (TSI) reporting 62% […]