As the laws of economics have proven time and again, supply and demand will determine whether steel prices continue to rise in 2020. Demand is set by the marketplace; supply can be controlled by producers. Steel Market Update canvassed the market this week, asking readers: Has enough flat rolled capacity been removed to keep prices […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: We are now in the third year of the steel tariffs. On Jan. 11, 2018, the Department of Commerce transmitted its report and recommendations to President Trump. The president was waiting for the document, which gave him power […]
By CRU Analyst James Campbell, from the Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook 2019 was a bad year for the steel industry. Prices and margins collapsed and, outside of China, demand contracted. However, the combination of a new restocking cycle and reduced output in many markets allowed producers to raise prices and margins at the end […]
Following the recent attacks in Iran, President Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran including targeting 13 Iranian steel and mining companies. Additionally, sanctions will be imposed on three Seychelles-based entities, aluminum and copper companies and the Liberian-flagged and Chinese-owned vessel Hong Xun, known to transport metal products. “We are also designating Iran’s largest metals […]
Allegheny Technologies’ Midland plant may be on the chopping block if the Trump administration doesn’t approve an exclusion from Section 232 tariffs. ATI CEO Robert Wetherbee, in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, demonstrated how difficult it can be to support Trump trade policies and one’s own business interests. Wetherbee believes the tariffs were […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 5.9 percent m/m to 223.5 (see chart) following price increases in nearly every market, the highest level since August 2019. Solid scrap demand has offset better than seasonally typical supply due to mild winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. […]
Flat rolled mills raised prices by another $40 per ton this week and the plate mills are expected to follow suit soon, possibly yet this week. “Lead times have jumped out to February-March-April. Scrap is up $20-30. The mills will certainly go for plate increase number four since November,” said one Steel Market Update source. […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
Commercial Metals Company is looking forward to a steady construction market in 2020 for its merchant bar and rebar products. “We are positioned to continue benefiting from the positive trends in our core markets and remain optimistic about the construction market, as many of the macro indicators we monitor point to resilience ahead,” said President […]
A recent study by the Federal Reserve concludes that the Trump administration tariffs are doing more harm than good to the U.S. economy and manufacturing. Federal economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce examined the impact the “unprecedented” number of tariffs imposed under the Trump administration have had on the U.S. manufacturing sector. Escalation of tariff […]
John Packard is traveling…. As always, the holiday break put the brakes on buying, making it a challenge to gauge steel prices in the first week of 2020. But it appears the upward price momentum has continued into the New Year. Steel Market Update’s survey of the market over the past two days shows flat […]
The Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to result in higher than expected tariff revenue for the United States on motor vehicles and parts due to stricter rules of origin and labor value content requirements. Included in the revenue calculation is an estimated $3 billion in tariffs to be paid by automakers over the […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Happy New Year to all. The president has imposed a host of import restrictions and sanctions since 2017. The list is extensive and the statutes under which he claims to be acting can be bewildering: Section 232, Section […]
The December Manufacturing ISM Report on Business showed economic activity contracting in the U.S. last month. The PMI fell 0.9 points to 47.2 percent and its lowest reading since July 2009. A PMI below 50 indicates business is contracting and a reading above 50 indicates expansion. The December PMI marks the fifth consecutive month of contraction. […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of November 2019, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in November totaled 90,652,000 metric tons, a decrease of 2.4 percent from the previous month, but an increase of 5.1 percent from […]
In Q3 2019, Vietnam was second only to Turkey as a buyer of scrap on the global market. This Steel Market Update quarterly analysis uses data from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) in the UK. We believe that to improve our understanding of the gyrations of the domestic scrap market, we should be […]
First issue of the New Year. For that matter, today is the first issue of the new decade. It will probably take awhile to get used to 2020 vs. 2019. Of course, with the political climate and it being an election year, maybe we will have 2020 ingrained in our heads sooner rather than later. […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from the CRU Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Global Economic Outlook: 2019 has been an eventful year. Many decisions were taken, including tariffs and monetary policy easing. Other decisions were put-off, such as Brexit and auto tariffs. Looking back to our expectations at the start of 2019, four things […]
Steel buyers sentiment has seen little change in the past several weeks as the market pauses to digest the latest price increases and looks ahead to the beginning of the new year. The goal of the index is to measure how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful today […]
In four rounds of price increases since late October, flat rolled steel mills have raised prices by a total of $150 per ton. How much are they collecting? Some, but certainly not all, according to the service center and manufacturing executives who responded to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week. SMU data places the average […]
President Trump is walking back his decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Brazil. After accusing Brazil and Argentina earlier this month of currency manipulation that is harming U.S. farmers, and threatening immediate tariffs in retaliation, Trump now says he will not follow through on his threat. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said […]
With the month nearly complete, finished steel imports into the United States in December are trending in line with October and November at just over 1.4 million tons, based on Steel Market Update’s projections of Commerce Department license data. Finished steel imports in the fourth quarter have been well below the 12-month average of around […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers. For more information on how to upgrade to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The U.S. economy continued to grow in 2019, but at a slower rate as the year progressed. The third estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q3 2019 was 2.1 […]
Fitch Ratings, a global leader in credit ratings and research, is forecasting a negative outlook for the global steel industry in 2020 and challenging conditions in North America. The Fitch Ratings 2020 Outlook: Global Steel notes weaker economic growth impacted by ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions. “Over the past two years companies have talked at […]
The U.S. dollar has weakened against 12 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 pre-eminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow the Broad Index value of the U.S. […]
Crude oil prices broke out to the upside in December, but the rig count continues to decline. U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and many others, exceeded imports in September by 89,000 barrels a day, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Nov. 28. Thus, the U.S. […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Last week was one of the most eventful for trade this year: USMCA Agreement Editor’s note: The House voted to pass the USMCA earlier today. The Senate is unlikely to vote on the measure before completion of the […]
Affirming that steel imports from Vietnam have been circumventing U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties, the Department of Commerce on Monday upheld its preliminary AD/CVD rates on imports of galvanized and cold rolled sheet from Vietnam manufactured with hot- or cold-rolled substrate from Korea and Taiwan. Steel products produced in Korea and Taiwan, shipped to Vietnam […]
After declining for much of 2019, steel prices have moved up substantially in the last two months. Will the trend continue into 2020? Flat rolled steel producers raised prices three times during October and November for a total of $110 per ton. (Editor’s note: ArcelorMittal USA announced an additional $40 flat rolled increase on Friday. […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison On Dec. 13, U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, released a statement indicating that the U.S. and China had come to terms on a “phase 1” trade deal. The opening sentence of the USTR press release states, “The United States and China have reached an historic and enforceable agreement on […]