Despite war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and uncertainty around steel prices, more than 80% of buyers responding to Steel Market Update’s survey this week still described themselves as optimistic about their prospects for the first half of this year. Their generally positive outlook – reflected in the comments below – point to healthy steel demand […]
A lot has happened in the world since my last article. Please bear with me as there is much to talk about. First, my thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine, and for that matter the innocent people in Russia who want nothing to do with Putin’s war. The world order is […]
Steel mill lead times remain short, but yielded minor upward movements this week for most products, based on Steel Market Update’s latest check of the market. SMU’s data on mill negotiations shows buyers still have the upper hand. Buyers polled this week by SMU reported mill lead times ranging from 2-6 weeks for hot rolled, […]
Last year when hot rolled coil prices in the U.S. surged to record highs, foreign steel was hundreds of dollars cheaper, and import orders skyrocketed. Now that U.S. steel prices have come back to earth, foreign steel has lost that competitive advantage. Foreign HRC prices are now approximately $45-108 per ton more expensive than domestic steel, […]
February marked month six of declining steel prices, following a 12-month streak of continuous price increases. Hot rolled prices declined $215 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,020 per ton at the end of February (recall our HR average this week declined another $20 to $1,000 per ton). The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products was […]
The fog of war. That’s what we’re all dealing with now. Even in steel as realization grows that the war in Ukraine will have consequences here in North America too. The exact contours are still uncertain. We know that pig iron prices are up sharply, and that concerns about shortages are mounting – not just […]
Sheet prices fell again this week. But price declines for hot-rolled coil have slowed, with HRC tags down $20 per ton ($1 per cwt) and coalescing around $1,000 per ton. While some mills were reported to be cutting deals as low as $900 per ton, others were said to be mulling price hikes. Cold-rolled and […]
The Chicago Business Barometer fell last month for the first time since last November, according to the latest indicators from Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). February’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reading was 56.3, down 8.9 points from January, as almost a quarter of the firms surveyed reported New Orders […]
The next three months remain favorable for metalforming companies, though widespread supply shortages and other challenges continue, according to the February 2022 Precision Metalforming Business Conditions Report. There was little change in this month’s forecast for business conditions. Only 10% of companies predict a decrease in economic activity during the period, up slightly from 7% […]
Sheet prices fell hard again this week. Our average hot-rolled coil number now stands at $1,020 per ton ($51/cwt), down $60 per ton from last week and marking the lowest point for HRC prices since January 2021. Large buyers reported deals in the mid-$900s. Another notable trend: Prices for coated products led the way downward […]
For those of you who don’t pay attention to such things, today’s date is 2/22/22…. On Monday, Cleveland-Cliffs announced on their website their intention of indefinitely idling the #4 blast furnace at Indiana Harbor, and a $50 per ton ($2.50/cwt) price increase on orders slated for production in April 2022. Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves spoke […]
Distributors who sell galvanized steel products to the construction and HVAC sectors see Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.’s announcement of a price increase this week as a positive sign the market’s slide may be nearing a bottom. The Cleveland-based steelmaker notified customers this week that it is shutting down a blast furnace and will raise prices for April […]
Spot market prices are moving and moving very quickly. One of the service centers I communicated with today said, “I’ve not seen a market downturn quite like this one (nor the upside either), and it’s making the discovery of legit pricing quite difficult. I will say, the one constant I keep hearing is that the […]
Steel mill lead times, which have shortened to near historical averages, are about as low as they will go and now register only minor movements up or down from week to week, based on Steel Market Update’s surveys of the market. Likewise, SMU’s data on negotiations between mills and buyers has reached a similar steady […]
Foreign steel imports from the three regions tracked by Steel Market Update have nearly lost their price advantage over domestic steel, according to our latest foreign versus domestic hot rolled steel price comparison. Foreign HRC prices are now theoretically just $7-80 per ton cheaper than domestic steel, after taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs […]
Steel prices saw another big drop this week, taking the benchmark price for hot rolled below $1,100 per ton for the first time since January 2021. Cold rolled and coated products registered double-digit declines as well, while plate prices appear to be holding their own, according to Steel Market Update’s check of the market on […]
Flat Rolled = 56.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 56 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories fell from their December highs, though the seasonal pick-up in demand in January was weaker than expected. At the end of January, service centers carried 56.1 shipping days of supply on an […]
Total mill shipments of steel products rebounded in December to 8.985 million tons, a 7.8% increase over November’s 8.334 million tons, and the highest monthly total for 2021. Apparent supply saw a 5.0% boost in December, rising for the second straight month following repeated decreases in September and October. This analysis is based on steel mill shipment […]
On the price front, we’re below $1,200 per ton ($60 per cwt) for hot-rolled coil the first time in almost exactly a year, which had me going back and checking some of the headlines we had a year ago. A recurring theme is that just about everything that happened last year is happening in reverse […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is expected to take an approximately 80-90 day planned outage on the No. 5 blast furnace at its Cleveland Works starting in mid to late March, according to market participants. The outage is expected to last until roughly mid-June. It is not expected to impact customers because the Cleveland-based steelmaker can stock slabs […]
Sheet prices continue to fall, but the pace of declines has moderated on the hot-rolled coil side. SMU’s average hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,190 per ton ($59.50 per cwt), down $45 per ton from $1,235 per ton last week. This weeks’ drop was less than half the $100-per-ton decline recorded last week. And […]
Plate prices have been remarkably steady in the face of sheet price declines of hundreds of dollars per ton. That trend probably can’t hold for much longer, and plate prices are overdue for a correction, according to market contacts and SMU data. For starters, look at the chart below: HRC prices have fallen from $1,600 […]
I was going to write something today about steel prices, lead times and the spreads between various products. There is a lot to write about there. And I’ll come back to it on another day. I’m tapping the brakes on prices today to touch on something just as important and just as disruptive: persistent shortages […]
Steel mill lead times have shortened to what is considered nearly normal by historical standards, with hot rolled lead times below four weeks and cold rolled and coated around six weeks, plus or minus. In other words, the time it takes the mills to make steel and process orders can’t get much shorter. But the […]
Hot rolled imports continue to tempt U.S. buyers with potential discounts of 14-23% over domestic prices, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic price comparison. Foreign hot rolled steel prices are now theoretically $177-283 per ton cheaper than domestic steel, after taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration. However, this foreign […]
Flat rolled steel prices declined by another $60-100 per ton in the past week, pushing the benchmark hot rolled price down to $1,235 per ton. That’s a decline of about 37% or a total of $720 per ton since the market peaked five months ago. Why the sharp decline? An imbalance between supply and demand […]
SMU continues to hear that domestic HR prices are moving lower, in particular for large orders. Are mills trying to keep lead times above three weeks, are we going back to a cost plus model on the EAF side, or is it something else entirely? This isn’t 2008-09 or even 2014-15. The music hasn’t stopped […]
January marked the fifth consecutive month of declining steel prices, following a year-long streak of continuous price increases. Hot rolled prices declined $200 per ton throughout the month, with the SMU index averaging $1,335 per ton ($66.75 per cwt) as of Tuesday, Jan. 25. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products remains at Lower since its mid-October adjustment. January […]
U.S. Steel isn’t letting current lower prices get it down after a record year in ’21 and in anticipation of more good times rolling into ‘22. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker said it had expected the first quarter would be weaker but that such weakness would to be temporary. “Supply chain issues will ease, inflationary pressures will […]
The next three months look favorable for metalforming companies, according to the January 2022 Precision Metalforming Business Conditions Report. Only 7% of companies predict a decrease in economic activity during the period, down from 16% in December. The report shows that 37% of metalforming companies anticipate an increase in activity, up from 27% in the […]