The amount of time it takes a steel mill to produce a product once a new order is placed is measured in weeks. Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a market trends analysis on the flat rolled steel industry. We invite just under 600 steel executives representing about 550 companies to participate in […]
One of the areas of our focus during our twice monthly flat rolled steel trends survey is how flexible are the domestic steel mills when negotiating spot steel prices with their customers? Over the past three months the mills have been willing to discuss discounts in order to obtain business. We found this on all […]
Once per month HARDI* wholesalers conduct a galvanized steel conference call so they can better understand what is happening in the broader markets as they deal with steel pricing, demand and inventory issues. The HARDI monthly call was held on Wednesday, November 9, just one day after the presidential election. Not surprisingly, the future of […]
On Wednesday of this week I participated in the monthly HARDI conference call (see article in tonight’s newsletter). During the call one of the executives from an east coast HVAC wholesaler told the group that he didn’t believe prices could or would move much higher from here. I disagreed with him. One of the justifications […]
Steel buyers and steel mill sellers are beginning to come to the same conclusion, the steel mills have the momentum and flat rolled steel prices are beginning to rise. What may be surprising steel buyers, especially those who do not read publications like Steel Market Update, is the pace and the strength of the market […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) ferrous scrap sources advised us over the weekend that strength in the Ohio Valley, as well as in the export markets, has led to ferrous scrap prices trading higher than originally thought. Talks continue in many of the regions of the country which have not yet completed scrap pricing negotiations for […]
Inventories, and whether they are too tight right now, have been a topic of discussion lately. Eddie Lehner, CEO of Ryerson Holdings commented on this during the Ryerson earnings call last week. In his prepared remarks Lehner said, “Notwithstanding, the decline of CRU carbon sheet prices from a peak late in the second quarter of […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel – HR futures The Hot Rolled futures market this past week has been characterized by limited trading activity. There have been numerous […]
US Steel reported third quarter net earnings of $51 million compared to a Q2 loss of $46 million and Q3 2015 net loss of $173 million. Net sales in third quarter increased to $2.7 billion, with $114 million in sales coming from the flat-rolled segment and $81 million from US Steel Europe. Sales benefited from […]
I have had a number of conversations with steel mills and steel buyers regarding when the next flat rolled steel price increase would be announced by the domestic mills? My opinion is the mills will use the new ferrous scrap settlement prices combined with stronger order books as the reasons for going out after perhaps […]
It does not feel like a “rocket” market. By that we mean we are seeing prices skyrocketing at a breakneck pace. Don’t get us wrong. Prices have indeed changed coarse and the Momentum is for prices to trend higher over the next month of two. We just need to be careful as different products and […]
Steel Market Update has been discussing the subject of steel prices with service centers from around the country and there seems to be an almost unanimous belief that new price increase announcements will be made between now and Thanksgiving (November 24th). Here is a sample of what the service centers have told SMU over the […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) is adjusting our Price Momentum Indicator to “Higher” from Neutral. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices in the United States and Canada will move higher over the next 30 to 60 days. There are a number of reasons why we have chosen to make this move now, here […]
Metalforming companies are expecting a minor decline in business conditions during the next three months, according to the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA). Respondents in the October survey are expecting a drop in incoming orders and noted that shipping levels declined in in October. Lead times, compared with three months ago shortened […]
With all of the domestic steel mills announcing $30 per ton price increases either late last week or early this week, the industry is waiting to see if there was a surge of orders and how those orders have impacted lead times. Everyone knows if lead times begin to extend then buyers will have no […]
The flat rolled steel markets are in a state of confusion as both buyers and sellers of steel decide what is a fair price for hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steels based on existing market conditions both in the United States but also the rest of the world. Even though there have been price […]
On Friday morning US Steel got the ball rolling by announcing a $30 per ton price increase on all spot sales of flat rolled steel (hot rolled, cold rolled and coated products). Before the afternoon was out two other steel mills followed: Nucor and California Steel Industries. On Monday a number of mills were heard […]
Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District slowed in October according to the Survey of Manufacturing Activity produced by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite Index registered -4, improving from -8 in September and -11 in August. New orders and backlogs decreased in October but remained in negative numbers. The shipment index climbed from contraction […]
On Friday morning US Steel became the first domestic steel producer to announce a flat rolled steel price increase. Later in the day Nucor and California Steel Industries (CSI) followed with similar announcements. SMU expects other steel mills to follow with announcements of their own as this new week gets underway. On October 21, 2016 […]
On Friday I got a number of messages from people wanting to know how they can get information about a price increase announcement being made as soon as it comes out (or shortly thereafter). Right now what I try to do when announcements come out is to put it out on my Twitter account (@SMUSteel) […]
Since Monday of this week Steel Market Update has been conducting a survey of the flat rolled steel market place. During the process SMU probes about a number of key topics of importance to buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel. One of the areas we deem to be very important is the status of […]
The domestic steel mills in North America continue to be willing to negotiate spot steel prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume products according to those responding to this week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends survey. It has now been a number of months since the mills were last in a […]
Flat rolled steel prices were mixed this week with three of the four items moving lower and one (galvanized) remaining the same. The questions being asked by buyers – both at the service center and manufacturing level – is how much further do prices need to fall before bouncing back? The issue of “finding the […]
For those who have not been members for a long period of time or who may be new to Steel Market Update this section, my Final Thoughts, is the one area where I get to pontificate (provide my opinion) on subjects of interest to me. Today I want to briefly address the elephant in the […]
The conversation has begun regarding when flat rolled steel prices will end their slide and reverse course. Flat rolled steel prices have been in a steep decline since mid-June 2016 when benchmark hot rolled prices peaked at $635 per ton ($31.75/cwt, SMU index average) FOB domestic mill. Since then steel prices have retreated $145 per […]
Flat rolled steel prices continue to move lower as benchmark hot rolled broke through $500 per ton and is now averaging $490 per ton. We were relatively conservative in our range this week as we did capture at least one order placed for moderate tonnage at $440 per ton and we are hearing that the […]
Steel Market Update ferrous scrap sources advised us over the weekend that scrap negotiations have wrapped up between the dealers and the domestic mills and that steel mills, once again, have walked away the winners as scrap prices dropped across the country. However, the weakest areas are those furthest away from the east coast where […]
Lead times continue to be at, or slightly below year ago levels. Steel Market Update conducted our flat rolled steel market trends analysis over the course of this week. As part of our questionnaire, submitted to almost 550 companies, we ask questions regarding lead times for new orders out of the domestic steel mills by […]
With the short lead times we reported earlier in this issue, the buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel are almost unanimously reporting the steel mills as willing to negotiate hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steel prices. We found 97 percent of those responding to our survey reporting mills as willing to negotiate […]
Flat rolled steel prices continued their swan dive with hot rolled and cold rolled moving $10 per ton lower and galvanized/Galvalume moving lower by $20 per ton. For the first time in quite awhile SMU picked up information regarding HRC offers down to $460 per ton (with tons). Most buyers, however, were reporting $480 to […]