I have been working on two major projects today: flat rolled and plate pricing for our steel index and flat rolled steel service center inventories as of the end of September. I finished the first project on pricing, which showed mixed results with some price erosion on a couple of items and stable prices on […]
SMU Price Momentum Indicator is now at “lower,” meaning flat rolled steel spot prices are expected to move lower over the next 30 to 60 days. Steel prices have begun to retreat with benchmark hot rolled beginning the month at $630 per ton ($31.50/cwt) and ending the month down $20 to $610 per ton ($30.50/cwt). […]
I am in Chicago and will be here until Tuesday when I make my way to Fort Wayne, Ind., to conduct one of our Steel 101 workshops. A special thank you to SDI and Paragon Steel for allowing our workshop to tour each of their plants. This workshop has been sold out for a number […]
On Friday, Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices will move lower over the next 30 days for the following 10 reasons: First, when the head of commercial of a domestic steel mill tells SMU that “transaction pricing cannot go […]
For the second month in a row, Steel Market Update (SMU) did reasonably well with our forecast for August shipments, inventories and where we thought the Apparent Deficit/Excess for service center carbon flat rolled inventories would be at the end of August. SMU forecast shipments of hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steels would total […]
Steel Market Update is working on a new index to measure flat rolled steel inventories in service center warehouses at the end of each month. Our goal is to assist the flat rolled steel industry to better understand inventories and their potential impact on steel mill order books and lead times. SMU will also analyze […]
Steel Market Update is working on a new index to measure flat rolled steel inventories in service center warehouses at the end of each month. Our goal is to assist the flat rolled steel industry to better understand inventories and their potential impact on steel mill order books and lead times. SMU will also analyze […]
Late yesterday (Sept. 6), AK Steel announced a new $30 per ton flat rolled price increase. AK Steel last announced a flat rolled price increase three weeks ago when on Aug. 16 the steel mill raised prices by $30 per ton. So far this year, AK Steel has made seven price increase announcements totaling $215 […]
The following table is for the month of August 2017. Most of the data speaks for itself. We produce this information at the end of every month. There are a number of data points or reference points that are proprietary to Steel Market Update. These include our SMU Price Momentum Indicator which, at the end […]
How can domestic mills expect to increase prices when their lead times are so short and foreign steel is still so plentiful? In the monthly steel conference call hosted today by the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International, HARDI members commented on the contradictions in mill behavior that have left them confused and concerned about […]
During the week of Aug. 14, 2017, the U.S. steel mills advised their flat rolled and steel plate customers of their intention to increase spot prices on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume steels, as well as plate. The flat rolled mills announced $30 per ton base price increases on new spot business. For […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Service Center Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast provided last month showed that the deficit in inventories being held by flat rolled distributors would shrink. We have worked with the MSCI carbon flat rolled shipment and inventory data and our model indicates the deficit did indeed shrink and is very close to […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been expanding our analysis of flat rolled steel service center inventories in an effort to provide a second opinion on this key subject for both buyers and sellers. We continue to review inventory levels through the use of our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire that we distribute twice per […]
Despite getting pressure to adjust our SMU Price Momentum Indicator due to uncertainty associated with the Section 232 investigation and the lack of a recommendation to date, along with small signs of a need by one or two steel mills for orders on galvanized, SMU is continuing to reference flat rolled steel prices as moving […]
As a monthly average, prices on all flat rolled steel products recovered in July following a dip in June. The month of July ended with SMU’s Price Momentum Indicator continuing to point higher as the market waits to see if and when the Trump administration will act on Section 232 trade measures that could further […]
I had to smile on Friday when Brett in my office forwarded an email to me from one of the steel mills. Here is part of what this mill executive had to say: “I occasionally write to John just to vent. It doesn’t help him, but it makes me feel better. Section 232 is the […]
Last week, the MSCI reported carbon flat rolled inventories as being 1.9 months of supply as of the end of June 2017. Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted a detailed analysis of steel service center inventories last week via our survey and our results had flat rolled inventories as averaging 2.3 months. The data provided in […]
Boy, am I receiving mixed messages – more than I think I ever have before during my 40 year plus career in (or covering) the industry. My opinion is the mixed messages are due to the interference in “normal” market operations by the Trump administration. This is especially destructive when promises are made for Section […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel HR futures prices have moved $12-$27/ST higher on very light trading volumes this past week. In spite of the higher HR […]
Nucor CEO John Ferriola said that in the current challenging environment, he is encouraged by second-quarter results, but not satisfied. Illegally traded imports continue to be a problem in the United States for Nucor and the domestic steel industry, Ferriola said during the company’s second-quarter conference call. He cited a 15 percent year-over-year increase in […]
Like the rest of the steel market, wholesalers of galvanized steel and other products used in HVAC applications are stuck in an uncomfortable wait-and-see mode as the Section 232 drama plays out in Washington. In the monthly steel conference call hosted today by the Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International, HARDI members reported anxiety over […]
The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) will release its service center inventories and shipment data next week. As we prepare to review their data, we thought our readers would be interested in what we collected about flat rolled steel inventories at distributors during our flat rolled steel market trends analysis last week. Flat rolled steel […]
We ended the month of June with a change in our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral (we had moved from lower to Neutral earlier in the month) to Higher. With the expectation of Section 232 being implemented by President Trump, we feel prices have only one way to go, up. How long that will last […]
Steel mill flat rolled lead times, which have generally trended downward this spring, my be showing early signs of lengthening, reflecting new strength in demand for domestic steel products. Mills were successful in collecting a price increase earlier in the month. Despite SMU data that shows service center inventories at “comfortable” levels, some distributors may […]
Last month Steel Market Update forecast steel shipments of carbon flat rolled would total 2,322,000 tons and, according to the MSCI data released last week, shipments were 3,319,000 tons. We missed the number by 3,000 tons… Our forecast called for flat rolled inventories to total 4,344,000 tons at the end of May. We were off […]
We are hearing reports from steel mills that their lead times have moved out and they have been able to collect some, if not most, of the $30 per ton price increase announced at the beginning of the month. Steel Market Update (SMU) is concerned as our research data is suggesting that service centers are […]
About 65 percent of respondents to SMU’s June 5 Steel Buyers Sentiment Index questionnaire predict steel mills will not be able to collect the full $30 per ton flat rolled steel price increase announced last week, while just 35 percent believe the hike will stick. Nearly two out of three respondents, mostly service centers and […]
Flat rolled steel distributors are reporting to Steel Market Update (SMU) that their inventories are balanced to slightly over-stocked and there is minimal need to build carbon sheet inventories from here. At the end of March the MSCI reported flat rolled steel inventories at 1.82 month’s supply. Last week the MSCI reported end of April […]
A number of the Steel Market Update prognostications for service center inventories and shipments came true (well, almost). We forecast daily shipments would rise on a tons per day basis to 108,400 tons per day. In actuality they rose to 111,100 tons per day. Since April 2017 only had 19 shipping days (according to MSCI) […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been struggling to make sense of the most recent carbon flat rolled inventory numbers for service centers. What we learned from the MSCI did not match the conversations we were having with service center steel buyers across the country. SMU has been working on ways to provide a separate and […]