• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    I have been working on two major projects today: flat rolled and plate pricing for our steel index and flat rolled steel service center inventories as of the end of September. I finished the first project on pricing, which showed mixed results with some price erosion on a couple of items and stable prices on others. In the second project on inventories, I’ve heard from about 50 percent of the companies registered to supply information. I am hopeful we will collect the vast majority of the data by the time we produce our Thursday issue of Steel Market Update.

    I continue to look for prime flat rolled and steel plate service centers who are willing to work with SMU on a strictly confidential basis as we endeavor to better understand service center inventories and business trends. You can ask questions and find out more about our goals for this new index we are creating by contacting me directly: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. I am also looking for ideas directly from distributors on the kinds of information that has been missing and would be helpful as they make buying and selling decisions.

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.