Final Thoughts

Our next SMU steel market survey will begin on Monday, September 30th and will run through Thursday, October 3rd. If you receive an invitation please take a few minutes to participate by clicking on the link contained in the invitation.

I will be in my office first thing on Monday before traveling down to Atlanta for meetings prior to the start of Metalcon. Metalcon opens on Tuesday afternoon and both John Temples and I will be there on that date as well as Wednesday afternoon and for a short time Thursday morning. If you would like to meet with us you can check our schedules by sending us an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or JohnTemples@SteelMarketUpdate.com or you can contact me on my cell phone during the show: 770-596-6268.

John Packard

Latest in Analysis

Scrap export market activity perks up

There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis.

Nov. 05, 2026

ArcelorMittal sees N. American shipments flat in Q4 as Calvert ramps up

ArcelorMittal expects North American steel shipments to be flat sequentially in the fourth quarter, as recovery from Canadian and Mexican disruptions is expected to be offset by normal seasonality and maintenance. The company reported third-quarter shipments of 2.645 million metric tons, down 6.6% sequentially but up 1% year over year (y/y). It attributed the shipment decline primarily to lower long product volumes. North America sales were nearly $3.7 billion in Q3’26, nearly level with the previous quarter but 11% higher y/y. Average selling prices rose 5.7% sequentially to $1,228 per metric ton (mt).

Nov. 05, 2026

Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

Nov. 04, 2026

Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

Nov. 03, 2026

Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.

Nov. 03, 2026