Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 2, 2013
I made a decision many years ago that when the domestic steel industry (multiple mills) announced price increases that I would automatically move the SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral. Since we are already at Neutral it is important to understand that at this point prices could move up, down or absolutely nowhere from where they are at this moment.
There is a portion of the industry which supports higher prices 100 percent. Another portion who believes – strongly – that market fundamentals will ultimately come home to roost and it is only a matter of time before prices tank.
The next few weeks will be interesting.
Our next Steel 101: Steelmaking & Market Fundamentals workshop will be in Mobile, Alabama on February 4th and 5th, 2014. Part of the workshop will be a tour of the SSAB plate and hot rolled mini-mill (EAF) in Axis, Alabama. We are working on finalizing details regarding hotel and other logistics as well as tweaking our program. We anticipate being able to take registrations within the next week or two. If you have any questions please contact us at: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone at 800-432-3475.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
The difference: The spat with Turkey was a big deal for steel. This time, the 50% reciprocal tariff for Brazil – if it goes into effect as threatened on Aug.1 – hits everything from coffee and to pig iron. It seems almost custom-built to inflict as much pain as possible on Brazil.

Final Thoughts
Are we on the cusp of sorting out the tariff situation, or is this merely another round in the bout?

Final Thoughts
I’m not sure how many different ways I can write that it’s been a quiet market ahead of Independence Day. There are variations on that theme. I’ve heard everything from the ominous “eerily quiet” to "getting better" and even the occasional “blissfully unaware” (because I’m enjoying my vacation).

Final Thoughts
What's going to be the next big thing in steel?

Final Thoughts
Based on the amount of ‘out of office’ replies we’ve been receiving and the results of this week’s steel buyers’ survey, those pesky summer doldrums have arrived for the steel industry.