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    Iron Ore, Scrap Futures - Ore Quiet Due to Holiday – Scrap Climbs

    Written by Bradley Clark


    TSI Iron Ore: Market Quiet During Chinese Golden Week…
     
    Iron ore prices have remained steady over the past week as the Chinese have been off for their Golden Week holiday.  Demand while steady appears to be seen as fragile by many.  The market remains in backwardation with prices down the curve continuing to trade at a discount to current spot pricing. The current spot price is around $131/ton with the q4 trading at $126, q1 ’14 at 122 and cal 14 at $110.  Market participants await the return of their Chinese counterparts to give renewed impetus and direction to the market. Volumes have been down this week understandably but remain very robust.

    U.S. Midwest #1 Busheling Ferrous Scrap (AMM) Prices Climb
     
    The busheling market has shown unexpected strength this week after early signs the market would soften in October.  Initially sentiment suggested the market would settle around $10 down this month, but recent mill price hikes and steady mill buying has caused the market to do a complete 180 with most deals being concluded sideways at worst from last month’s pricing. The physical market strength has filtered into the futures market with bids returning to the market looking for offers around $390-400 for q4 periods. No trades have been reported but there has been a definite resumption of interest particularly from buyers this week as the physical market begins to price.

    Latest in Prices

    Nucor temporarily halts secondary offers, sending shock waves through a tight market

    Nucor opened its secondary and excess product bid list across all its flat-rolled mills on Monday, as it typically does, market participants told SMU. But by Wednesday, when bidding was scheduled to close, Nucor notified buyers it would not be awarding any bids this week. The abrupt close sent a shock through the secondary market, they said. "Nucor pulled their excess and secondary lists this week and is not selling anything," a Midwest buyer said.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Nucor increases spot HR to $1,280/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Nov. 2, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,280 per short ton (st) this week, up $10/st from last week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,350/st, also up $10/st from a week earlier. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 27, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,305/st, up $15/st from the previous week.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.