Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 22, 2013
The early forecast is for scrap prices to increase by $20 per gross ton in early November. If this happens it could help keep domestic mill prices at current levels (or slightly higher). It could also prompt the domestic mills to ask for another price increase.
Longer term the analysts believe domestic scrap prices will drop. In a note to their customers regarding AK Steel, KeyBanc analyst Mark Parr said this about scrap, “The most aggressive piece of our thesis is likely on domestic scrap pricing, where we expect sizeable downside to develop as Nucor Corporation (NUE-NYSE) brings on its 2.5 million-ton [annualized] DRI facility into 2014 and post-consumer scrap export volumes remain weak.”
Nucor advised that they are testing the DRI plant right now and it should come online at the end of this quarter once the damaged storage facility is replaced.
A reminder that our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steelmaking & Market Fundamentals workshop is open for registration on our website or through our office (800-432-3475). The workshop will be held on February 4 & 5, 2014 in Mobile, Alabama and will include a tour of the SSAB mini-mill. Details can be found in the events section of our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
I wrote in a Final Thoughts a few years ago that it seemed all the swans were black. More recently, I’ve been asked by some of you what the wildcards are for 2025. You could probably make the case that all the cards are wild now.
Final Thoughts
SMU lets readers respond on their thoughts about President Joe Biden blocking Nippon's deal for U.S. Steel.
Final Thoughts
Some world-changing events happen in an instant. Others take many twists and turns. The outcome remains unknowable at every phase. That is, until you finally arrive at the end of the roller coaster, the safety bar lifts up, and you stagger off the ride. It appears such is the case with Japan’s Nippon’s Steel Corp.’s (NSC’s) proposed $14.9-billion buy of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel. And the ride ain't over yet.
Final Thoughts
I’m not sure what to say about President Biden’s blocking Nippon Steel’s deal for U.S. Steel that hasn’t already been said. I think it’s fair to say, as U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt did, that this was ultimately all about politics and had very little to do with national security. SMU has tried to remain […]
Final Thoughts
We never eat chicken on New Year’s Day. My Irish-Catholic grandmother thought it was bad luck – because chickens scratch backward. And one should start the year looking forward. But it’s hard to avoid the fact that we’re carrying a lot 2024 issues (and even 2023 ones) forward into 2025. That’s not all bad. We’re starting 2025 with SMU’s hot-rolled coil price at $675/per short ton (st). That’s $370/st lower than $1045/st at the outset of 2023, according to our interactive pricing tool. I think we can safely say that a decline of that magnitude won’t happen in 2025.