SMU Data and Models

Flat Rolled Apparent Deficit Now Stands at 361,000 Tons
Written by John Packard
November 19, 2013
Based on Steel Market Update proprietary analysis of the recently released MSCI shipment and inventory data, we have determined that the Apparent Deficit of flat rolled steel for October now totals 361,000 tons. This is a reduction of 21,000 tons compared to the end of September. At the end of October 2012, service centers had a 142,000 ton excess.
Our opinion is the greater the Apparent Deficit the more material service centers will be required to buy in the coming months in order to get their inventories back into equilibrium. The tighter inventories affect the domestic mills’ ability to raise and collect price increases. As you can see by the graphic below benchmark hot rolled prices began to improve right about the same time service centers dropped from a large Apparent Excess into a Deficit.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

US Hot Band Now Even Cheaper Than Imported HRC
US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fell further relative to imported product this week. Domestic hot band remains cheaper than offshore HRC as US tags continue to sink at a sharper rate than those overseas.

Service Center Shipments and Inventories Report for August
Flat Rolled = 54.1 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 61.2 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled US service center flat-rolled steel inventories eased back in August with stronger shipments. At the end of August, service centers carried 54.1 shipping days of supply, according to adjusted SMU data, down from 56.1 shipping days of supply […]

SMU Steel Demand Index Inches Up
Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index remains in contraction territory despite marginal improvement, according to our latest survey data.
HRC vs. Galv Price Spread Widened This Summer
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and galvanized sheet base prices widened throughout the summer as hot rolled prices declined faster than those of galvanized.
US Prime Scrap, HRC Spread Narrows Further
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices continued to narrow this month, according to Steel Market Update’s most recent pricing data.