• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    January 8, 2014

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    We will publish our next Premium Level Supplement Newsletter on Monday of next week. The supplement will contain currency data and information derived from this week’s steel market survey. We will also publish our Premium Level Power Point of the survey results for our Premium Level members either late on Friday or over the weekend. If you have interest in changing your membership to a Premium Level (cost is $1995 for one person per year) please contact either myself or Diana at 800-432-3475.

    A quick reminder that I am speaking at the Association of Woman in the Metals Industry (AWMI) at the Erie Café, 536 West Erie Street in Chicago, Illinois on Thursday evening, January 16, 2014. If you would like to attend you can get tickets through Amanda.Tomsovic@arcelormittal.com. They are asking for RSVP’s by the 10th (Friday of this week) but they do allow walk-ins if you decide you would like to attend at the last minute. Networking begins at 6 PM, dinner at 6:30 PM and the program starts at 7:30 PM. They have told me I have 20-30 minutes to speak – I will try to make it an interesting 20-30 minutes. (P.S. – someone needs to pray for warm and sunny weather so my flight gets in on time)

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.