Net Imports of Sheet Products Up 40.3%

The supply of all steel products in Q1 2014 was up by 5.9 percent from Q1 last year. Flat rolled was up by 4.5 percent and longs were up by 9.8 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade statistics and AISI steel shipment data.The bad news is that imports of all steel products were up by 19.2 percent and imports of flat and long products by 40.3 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively. On a tonnage basis longs supply in Q1 y/y was up by 636,116 tons of which imports ate up 241,039 tons. Flat rolled supply was up by 835,027 tons and the increase in imports was 947,339 tons meaning that imports ate up all the supply increase and then some.Net imports = imports minus exports, we regard this as an important look at the overall trade picture and its effect on demand at the steel mill level. Figure 1 shows that net sheet product imports on a three month moving average (3MMA) basis increased in March to the highest level since before the recession. The deterioration in net was entirely an import effect, exports also increased slightly in March.