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    Market Segment

    September 21, 2014

    What Will China Be Able to Export by the End of 2014?

    Written by John Packard

    Earlier today one of the steel analysts shared the most recent world production data for the month of August. Chinese mills now produce 51.1 percent of all of the world”s steel. However, the Chinese markets are slowing and the question is what (or where) will the Chinese mills be able to ship steel by the end of this calendar year?

    John Anton, Steel Director for IHS Global reported at our recent Steel Summit that the Chinese steel mills will have no choice but to idle excess capacity. The net result, in his view, was going to be a spike in benchmark hot rolled prices of up to $750 per ton during 2014. He also assumes in his forecast that the U.S. steel mills will file dumping suits on light flat rolled steels (cold rolled and coated).

    John Packard

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