Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 6, 2014
On Tuesday (today) Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower. I explain our reasoning in the first article above regarding our price indices. I will do a more detailed explanation as to why we are making a change at this point in time in the coming days.
Today Steel Market Update conducted the first day of our two day workshop on the steel making and rolling process. Part of the program was an exceptional tour of the Steel Dynamics Butler, Indiana mill. Tomorrow (Wednesday) we will concentrate our instruction on qualities and how they are made, how steel is bought and sold (both long and flat products) and we will look at market fundamentals. If you have an interest in joining SMU for our next workshop it will be held in Charleston, South Carolina and we will tour the Nucor Berkeley steel mill. This workshop will be held in the later part of January 2015 (Exact date and hotel information to be announced soon).
We are still hearing that there is pressure on scrap prices – down $20 per gross ton in many markets. We will have more about scrap in Thursday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update.
I want to welcome our newest members (subscribers) as we have added a number of new Premium and Executive level members over the past few days. I want to not only welcome you but I want to let you know that we are hear to assist you if we can. You can ask questions, make comments about content or make suggestions as to what you would like to see in our newsletter, website or our workshops/conferences. We are here to help and we appreciate your comments as many times they lead to articles or ideas for speakers/workshops. You can send your questions/comments/suggestions to info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final thoughts
Whether it’s the twists and turns of the presidential election, the U.S. Steel deal, or just what’s happening with the movement of steel pricing, there has been no shortage of stories for us to cover.
Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.
Final thoughts
We got a little flack for adjusting our sheet momentum indicators to neutral last week. To be clear, we didn’t adjust them to lower. Part of the reason we moved them to neutral was because there are some unusual cross-currents in the current market. On the news side, you could make a case that there should nowhere to go but up.
Final thoughts
I think all of us know that sometimes courtships go wrong. A misplaced word or deed and soon things can go sideways, and not in the prices sense. Such could be the case with Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel’s play for U.S. Steel.
Final thoughts
We’re starting to see some impacts of the big trade case filed last week against imports of coated flat-rolled steel from 10 nations. Namely, we’ve heard that a range of traders have stopped offering material from Vietnam. An alleged dumping margin of nearly 160% will do that. Especially amid chatter of critical circumstances.