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    Analysis

    Weekly Data Shows Active Oil & Gas Rigs Stable

    Written by Brett Linton


    With crude oil prices breaking through $80 per barrel, all eyes are on the Baker Hughes rig count data. The question is will the lower oil prices affect the number of wells being drilled? Most assume there will be an impact, however, it could have a lag effect and take time before there is a substantial change in the numbers. Steel Market Update will be watching the numbers closely since a reduction in drilling rigs would have a significant impact on steel usage – especially for hot rolled coil and plate used to make line pipe and other drilling, storage and transportation equipment.

    According to Baker Hughes data from November 21st 2014, the U.S rig count for this week is 1,929 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This count represents an increase of 1 rig compared to last week, with oil rigs down 4 to 1,574 rigs, gas rigs up 5 to 355 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 0 rigs. Compared to last year the 1,929 count is an increase of 168 rigs, with oil rigs up by 187, gas rigs down by 14, and miscellaneous rigs down by 5.

    Brett Linton

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    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Mill lead times climb to new highs, buyers expect little relief

    Lead times for sheet and plate products continued to lengthen amid historically tight supply, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times now extend into January 2027, with some mills quoting availability well into February. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-Covid demand snapback in 2021. Plate lead times exceed their 2021 peak, setting a record in our data series, which dates to 2018. (We started collecting sheet lead times earlier, in 2011.)