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    Analysis

    Oil & Natural Gas Rig Counts Remain Low

    Written by Brett Linton


    According to Baker Hughes data from May 22, 2015, the U.S rig count for the week was 885 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. The last time the active U.S. count was this low was back on June 12, 2009 at 876 rigs.

    This week’s total rig count is down 3 rigs when compared to last week, with oil rigs down 1 to 659 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 222 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 4 rigs. Compared to this time last year, the 885 count is down 972 rigs, with oil rigs down by 869, gas rigs down by 103, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged.

    Brett Linton

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    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Mill lead times climb to new highs, buyers expect little relief

    Lead times for sheet and plate products continued to lengthen amid historically tight supply, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times now extend into January 2027, with some mills quoting availability well into February. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-Covid demand snapback in 2021. Plate lead times exceed their 2021 peak, setting a record in our data series, which dates to 2018. (We started collecting sheet lead times earlier, in 2011.)